All four No. 1 seeds emerged as the region winners in the women’s March Madness tournament, setting up a pair of tantalizing matchups in the Final Four.
South Carolina takes on the tournament favorite, UConn, before Texas and UCLA face off in the other Final Four matchup. All four teams won their previous four games by double digits, and there is no doubt these are the four best teams in the country.
The NCAA odds have been released, and it is time to jump into the Women’s March Madness Final Four predictions.
South Carolina vs UConn
Matchup: South Carolina vs UConn Overview
- Date: Friday, April 3rd, 2026
- Time: Tip-off is at 7:00 PM EST
- Venue: PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Win Probabilities
- UConn: 77.1%
- South Carolina: 22.9%
Both teams are No. 1 seeds, but the dominant play on both ends of the court from UConn has them as firm favorites on the NCAA win probabilities, making this one of the biggest storylines in sports news heading into the Final Four.
Projected Final Score
UConn 70-61 South Carolina
UConn has the two best basketball players in the country, and while this is expected to be closer than their previous triumphs, they are still projected to win by 9 points in the final score.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why South Carolina Can Win
South Carolina has won all four previous games in the tournament by at least 26 points, including a 103-34 blowout in the first round. They have the third-best offense in the country with 87.1 PPG and have a strong defense to slow down mighty UConn.
Though they don’t have the same star talent as UConn, Jocelyn Edwards is more than capable of leading this team to a historic upset victory. Her play in the paint is hard to contain, and her ability to generate high-percentage shooting opportunities is impossible to replicate.
While South Carolina will need to take advantage of easy two-point shots, they will also need to live and die by the three-ball. The deep shot is the great equalizer in basketball, allowing underdogs to pull off upsets if they can get hot.
UConn is the firm favorite to win this one, but South Carolina’s strong efficiency from deep will see them lean on the three-pointers more than they often do.
Why UConn Can Win
UConn uses its elite pair of scorers to give it the best offense in the country, and they pair that with the second-best defense.
There have been few more dominant teams than UConn as they look to complete an undefeated season. They aren’t only winning, but they are blowing teams out with no mercy.
Sarah Strong is the primary facilitator and scorer on offense, while she chips in 3.4 steals per game on the defensive end. Strong will work in the low post as often as possible and will find lots of success on the inside against South Carolina, which is a major reason behind this basketball prediction.
Current South Carolina vs UConn Game Outlook
UConn entered the March Madness tournament as an overwhelming favorite to win, but South Carolina represents their biggest hurdle yet. While South Carolina can match them offensively, UConn’s defense has them as firm favorites to advance to the National Championship.
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South Carolina Recent Trends
South Carolina was upset by Texas in the SEC tournament, dropping their record to 35-3 for the season. They still came in as the No. 1 seed in the region and have put together four blowout wins so far in March Madness.
They scored more than 100 points on separate occasions, averaging 94 PPG in the tournament.
South Carolina Recent Stats
South Carolina has a strong defense to pair with their elite offensive unit. They have the third-most PPG in the country at 87.1 per game, the fourth-best three-point percentage, and the third-best two-point percentage.
Their ability to score from anywhere on the court makes them tough to slow down, and they are very responsible with the basketball, rarely turning it over. They are 303rd in three-pointers made this year despite their high shooting percentage, as South Carolina prefers to work in the paint for high-percentage looks.
South Carolina Leaders
- Points: Joyce Edwards (19.7)
- Rebounds: Madina Okot (10.8)
- Assists: Raven Johnson (5.3)
- Steals: Joyce Edwards (1.8)
South Carolina Player Performance Projections
Joyce Edwards is the focal point of the South Carolina offense and will need a big game in the paint to get her team over the line.
She also leads the team in both steals (1.8) and blocks (1.5), as Edwards never takes a second off when she is on the court. UConn will collapse on South Carolina’s primary scorer, making Raven Johnson and her playmaking a solid option.
UConn Recent Trends
UConn has gone a perfect 38-0 this season, with all but one of those wins coming by double digits.
They had an early scare against Notre Dame in the Elite Eight, but eventually pulled away for an 18-point victory. Their offense has been electric, but what has really separated them is their defensive work. UConn has allowed 47.75 PPG in the tournament, keeping each of its opponents to 52 points or less.
UConn Recent Stats
UConn is not just good on one end of the court; they are truly dominant in all aspects of the sport. They have the best field goal percentage in the nation at 52.5%, in addition to the best percentages both inside and beyond the arc.
On the other end of the court, they have the best defense in the nation with a 33.5% field goal percentage allowed; they lead the country in steals while forcing the 6th-most turnovers with 24.5 per game.
UConn Leaders
- Points: Sarah Strong (18.6)
- Rebounds: Sarah Strong (7.6)
- Assists: KK Arnold (4.6)
- Steals: Sarah Strong (3.4)
UConn Player Performance Projections
Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd are both poised for big games in this matchup. They have been the two most consistent scorers on the planet this year, and their player prop projections are quite high.
South Carolina does a good job at clogging the paint, but they are exposed on the outside, something both women will look to take advantage of.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
Can South Carolina keep up? UConn will score in this game, regardless of what South Carolina does, but the real telling matchup will be on the other end of the court.
South Carolina has looked dominant on offense this year, but UConn’s stingy defense will be difficult to penetrate. South Carolina needs to catch fire from deep, otherwise, it will be another double-digit win for UConn.
Final Prediction Summary
UConn is inevitable. The Huskies will add to their 36-0 record with another win but will fall just short of extending their double-digit streak. South Carolina will hang around in the first half after a few three-pointers drop, but UConn’s scoring depth, combined with star talent, will eventually take over.
Final Score: UConn 70-61 South Carolina
Texas vs UCLA
Matchup: Texas vs UCLA Overview
- Date: Friday, April 3rd, 2026
- Time: Tip-off is at 9:30 PM EST
- Venue: PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Win Probabilities
- Texas: 53.3%
- UCLA: 46.7%
Texas is a strong team on both ends of the floor, but they excel in the paint on the offensive end.
Their high frequency of high-percentage looks on the inside has given them the advantage on the win probabilities, which is why the March Madness odds and lines slightly favor the Longhorns.
Projected Final Score
Texas 69-68 UCLA
Both sides have strong offenses, which is why the projected final score implies plenty of success in that aspect. Texas is projected to win by a single point, as this feels like a matchup where whoever has the ball last will likely win.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why Texas Can Win
Texas has the best scorer on the court and a deep bench to help her out. Madison Booker is impossible to stop in the low post, and her 84.9% success rate from the free-throw line makes it unwise to foul her instead.
When she gets space in the paint, it will be two points for Texas more often than not, and UCLA doesn’t have the interior defense needed to slow her down.
Why UCLA Can Win
UCLA has the interior scoring to match Texas, but this game will come down to how they rebound. It is very rare to see six different players with 4+ rebounds on the same team, and UCLA will need to turn those extra possessions into points.
Texas doesn’t have the deep ball threats to really gain momentum, so if UCLA can walk away with two points on most trips down the court, this will be their game to lose.
Current Texas vs UCLA Game Outlook
Both teams control the paint. Both sides have been dominant in this tournament, but only one will prevail to the National Championship. Texas is the slight favorite on the NCAA odds, but this is a much closer game than the other Final Four matchup.
Either side winning would be far from a surprise, but the Longhorns hold a slight advantage in both the odds and the win probabilities.
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Texas Recent Trends
Texas has a 12-game win streak heading into this matchup, including an 18-point victory over another No. 1 seed, South Carolina, in the SEC tournament.
Their offense has been on full display, including a 100-point showing against Oregon in the second round of March Madness. On defense, they have looked equally strong, holding a potent Michigan offense to just 41 points in the Elite Eight.
Texas Recent Stats
Texas scores the 6th-most PPG in the country, averaging 85 on the season. They move the ball well with the 9th-most assists and will very rarely take a shot from outside of the arc.
Texas generates high-percentage looks down low, with the second-most two-point field goals attempted and made this season. They will not settle for bad looks, and their philosophy is that any three-point shot is in that category. They only attempt 12.4 threes per game, the 360th-most in the country.
On defense, Texas does a good job of defending without fouling, which will be crucial for this matchup against a physical UCLA side. They also take care of business on the glass, allowing the fifth-fewest opponent rebounds with a mere 30.1 per game compared to their 39.1 per game.
Those extra possessions are often turned into high-quality looks, something that is hard to overcome against a consistent offense like Texas’s.
Texas Leaders
- Points: Madison Booker (19.3)
- Rebounds: Madison Booker (6.7)
- Assists: Rori Harmon (6.3)
- Steals: Rori Harmon (2.8)
Texas Player Performance Projections
Jordan Lee is important for floor spacing, and Rori Harmon is crucial for facilitating, but Texas will want to get the ball into Madison Booker’s hands as often as possible. Her work in the post has allowed her to rack up 19.3 PPG, and she will look to surpass that total in this matchup.
Booker hasn’t been able to surpass 20 points since the second round of March Madness, making this the perfect time to ‘buy low’ on her expectations with her player prop projection.
UCLA Recent Trends
UCLA went 35-1 this year and is bringing a 29-game win streak into this matchup. Their only loss? A 76-65 defeat against Texas in November 2025. UCLA will have revenge on their mind in this one as they look to add onto their dominant tournament thus far. They have scored 70+ points in 12 straight games, relying on consistent offense in the paint to find success.
UCLA Recent Stats
This is an offense-minded team that can control the paint on both ends of the floor. Their overall field goal percentage and two-point percentage are both second in the country, as they score 51.3% of their attempts. Part of the reason is due to their fantastic ball movement, as they are second in the nation with 22.2 assists per game.
On defense, they allow their opponents just 27.4 rebounds per game, by far the lowest total in basketball. When UCLA’s efficient offense gets extra possessions thanks to strong rebounding, there is usually only one outcome, and that is worth noting when comparing NCAAB Odds.
UCLA Leaders
- Points: Lauren Betts (17.2)
- Rebounds: Lauren Betts (8.6)
- Assists: Charlisse Leger-Walker (5.8)
- Steals: Charlisse Leger-Walker (1.6)
UCLA Player Performance Projections
Lauren Betts will have a fantastic matchup against Texas in the post, and this is where UCLA must find success.
They have the deep ball advantage over Texas, but Betts will need to be on her A-game in the painted area. She averages 2.0 blocks per game, a number to keep an eye on, as Texas will look to match UCLA’s physicality down low.
UCLA also has six women averaging at least four rebounds per game this season, so look for them to implement a gang-rebounding play style for this one.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
Who can win in the paint? Both of these teams have dominant, physical women who can control the inside, so whichever team can win that area will go on to win this matchup.
The three-point shot can also be a weapon, as neither side goes behind the arc often, so it will only take a few deep shots to swing the momentum one way or the other.
Final Prediction Summary
This one will come down to the final possession, but the advantage goes to Texas thanks to their strong paint play. Madison Booker will have the best game of her career as UCLA has their 29-game win streak snapped by Texas.
Final Score: Texas 69-68 UCLA
- UP NEXT: Wolverines vs. Wildcats Prediction
