The question of ‘how to read fight odds’ is very common when making UFC predictions. Unlike team sports, the UFC is a competition between two fighters, with only one man or woman emerging victorious. However, the options are still plentiful, as you can predict the winner, how they will win, and what round they will finish the fight. If the fight is too close to call, you can also predict whether the fight will go over 2.5 rounds or even go all the way to the judge’s scorecards.
Once you understand UFC odds and get UFC odds explained, it can be a very effective sport to target when making your predictions.
How Do You Read Fight Odds?
In order to read fight odds, you must first decide which market you would like to predict.
The most popular UFC predictions are on the moneyline. While ties are technically possible, there are usually approximately five draws per year in the UFC, with the other 600+ fights having a winner declared. This effectively makes the moneyline a two-way market. You can predict whether either fighter will win, and there can be significant odd discrepancies. While most fights have the favorite in the -130 to -300 range, there will be fights with -2000 money lines with the favorite.
Since UFC is a one-versus-one sport, the odds must be carefully considered before making a prediction.
Types of UFC Odds
Moneyline
The moneyline is the most popular choice when making UFC predictions, as it is simply who will win the fight, without any fancy variables. It doesn’t matter if the fighter you chose to predict wins with an immediate knockout or a razor-tight split decision, as long as they get the victory, your prediction will be correct. However, this prediction method can often result in sky-high UFC odds. Making predictions with -1000 or longer odds is not a good strategy, so people elect to use other props to bring down the price. Moneyline is the way to go in a close fight, but if the odds are wide, look elsewhere for your UFC predictions.
Fight Props
A fight prop is a specific fighter to win by a specific method of victory. This can be either by knockout, submission, or decision. The UFC odds are calculated by how their previous fights have finished. If the favorite has seen a majority of their fights end in the same method of victory, the odds will reflect that. Having the UFC fight odds explained, especially fight props, can significantly improve your prediction record.
Total Round
The round total is a great prediction to make, regardless of the moneyline odds. There will always be reasonable odds available in the total round market in the UFC. The most common round total is 2.5 rounds, as close to half of the fights end up going to a decision. However, if the pair of fighters are known for quick finishes, a 1.5 round total is not uncommon. It is important to remember that, unlike other sports with totals ending in .5, the UFC includes partly completed rounds in the official settlement. The 2:30 mark is the halfway point of any round and is the mark used for this prediction. If a fight ends a minute into the second round, the Under 1.5 round prediction is still the winner. Once the clock hits 2:30, the round is more than half over and will be graded accordingly. The total round market heavily depends on weight class and fighting styles. Generally, the heavier the fighters, the more likely the fight will end early.
Outright Winner
The outright winner is the same as the moneyline. This prediction is simply who will win the fight, regardless of the method of victory.
Parlays
There are two types of UFC parlays. The most common is similar to other sports, where you can parlay multiple fight outcomes into a single prediction. In order for the prediction to be successful, all legs of the parlay must win. Most UFC fight nights have between 10 and 14 fights, ensuring there are endless parlay options.
The second parlay is the same game parlay. This can be similar to fight props and one of the most challenging things to understand when trying to learn how UFC odds work. This type of parlay involves multiple things happening in the same fight. That could be, among other things, the winner, the round the fight ends, and the method of victory.
Round Props
A popular UFC prediction is the exact round a fighter will win. These can be very long odds, as it is challenging to select the exact time a certain fighter will win (For example, Conor McGregor by Knockout in Round 2).
UFC Specials
It is very common for UFC sportsbooks to offer UFC specials in addition to the standard props. This can be unique and fun props, like ‘either fighter to win in the last 30 seconds of any round’ or ‘fight to end via flying knee knockout.’ These props are often only available in the ‘Yes’ market and should generally be avoided among beginner to novice UFC fans.
UFC Odds Explained
The question of how do UFC odds work is very common among beginner UFC fans. The variety of props, from moneylines to round props to method of victory props, can be quite overwhelming. Make sure you carefully examine every prop before making your free UFC prediction.
Why Do Sportsbooks Have Similar UFC Odds?
It is common for sportsbooks to have similar UFC odds, as they are all in the business of making a small percentage on every prediction. The odds must be similar across all sportsbooks, otherwise, fans could make predictions on one sportsbook and make an opposite prediction on another sportsbook to guarantee a correct prediction. Additionally, lots of research goes into making these odds, and most sportsbooks will come to the same conclusion of who is the favorite in a UFC fight and how much they are favored by.
UFC Odds Tips for Beginners:
There are several tips beginners can use when making UFC predictions that will allow them to make more successful predictions.
- The first and most important is to stick to the simple props. It may seem tempting to chase long odds on a specific prop, but unless the sportsbooks missed a significant edge, it is almost always better to stick to the moneyline and other simple props. Beginners often get lured in by the long odds and rarely make a correct prediction. By sticking to the simple props, the odds won’t be as long, but beginners can improve their chances of coming out on top.
- The second tip is to avoid parlays. Once again, the long odds can be tempting, but parlays rarely end up being a good prediction to make in the long run. By sticking to single-fight predictions, beginners can make correct predictions without getting greedy with parlays. It is difficult to string together several correct predictions, and beginners should stay away from parlays until they become more experienced.
- The third and final tip is to never get too confident in any one prediction. The UFC cards often have 10-14 fights per night, and putting it all on one prediction can leave beginner UFC fans reeling. Making multiple, smaller predictions across all the fights is highly recommended, which will improve your chances of making a correct prediction.
UFC Odds FAQ
What Does 135 Odds Mean?
The favorite gets a (-) next to the odds when using American odds, while the underdog gets a (+). A 135 odds or +135 odds mean that any prediction will be multiplied by 2.35 at the conclusion of the fight.
What Does Over 2.5 Rounds Mean?
In the UFC, over 2.5 rounds means that the fight will go into the third round and cross the 2:30 mark of that round. Unlike other sports, the UFC goes into fractions of rounds, meaning that just because the fight went more than two rounds doesn’t mean it will automatically go over 2.5 rounds. If the fight ends in the first half of the third round, the fight will have only gone 2.3 rounds for example. That would make the under 2.5 rounds the correct prediction. If the fight goes into the second half of the third round or later, the over 2.5 rounds will be considered correct.
How are UFC Odds Calculated?
The sportsbooks calculate UFC odds, and they want to keep an even number of predictions for both fighters. If the sportsbook sees a higher percentage of predictions for one fighter, it will alter the odds to persuade future predictions for their opponent.
