Kentucky Derby Odds

The renowned Kentucky Derby thoroughbred horse race is set to take place at Churchill Downs on May 4, 2024. This prestigious event will feature the finest 20 horses on their way to the Derby leaderboard. There is one thing horse racing fans eagerly anticipate, though: the Kentucky Derby odds.

Below is the full scoop on the Kentucky Derby, along with everything you need to know to make informed predictions.

How Do Kentucky Derby Odds Work?

Kentucky Derby horses odds go beyond simply predicting the race winner. In fact, they typically also include odds for other predictions, such as the horses expected to finish first and second, the horses likely to rank in the top three, and more.

Check out some of the following examples::

  • Win — You pick the horse you think will come first. For instance, imagine you invest 50 Sweeps Coins (SC) in Horse A to win at odds of +200. If Horse A finishes first, you will win SC100 (SC50 x 2). Bear in mind that you'd receive 150 SC in total (including your original 50 SC invested).
  • Show — You choose a horse to come first, second, or third. For instance, let's imagine you put 50 Sweeps Coins on Horse B to "show" at odds of +150. If Horse B finishes in the top three, you'll win SC75 (SC50 x 1.5). Overall, you'd receive SC125 in total, including the original SC50 you've invested.
  • Exacta — With this option, you select a horse to win first place and another horse to finish second, in that exact order. Let's say you invest SC20 in an exacta combination predicting Horse C to finish first and Horse D to finish second at odds of +1200. If both horses finish in the exact order you've predicted, you'll win SC240 (SC20 x 12). So, you'd receive SC260 in total, including the original 20.

How to Calculate Kentucky Derby Predictions?

The Kentucky Derby horse odds also fluctuate depending on how much action they attract. So, if the odds are 1-in-5, and the investment on that horse accounts for 20% of all predictions taken, the horse has a 1-in-5 chance of winning. In other words, if the race goes on five times in a row, the horse would be expected to win one and lose four, making the horse a 4-1 shot.

On the other hand, if you think a horse has a 50% chance of winning, then the odds for the Kentucky Derby would be even (1-1).

It's advisable to compare your own analysis with the public's odds. Still, if you believe the horse may very well win, despite the odds, then it's a favorable opportunity for you.

Kentucky Derby Predictions Explained

Once the top 20 horses are confirmed, a draw decides where each of them starts in the race. Morning line odds are released a few days before the Derby.

The odds for Kentucky Derby are shaped by a mix of factors:

  • The number of people who have invested in the horse to win;
  • Some factors that may affect a horse's performance, like track conditions, equipment changes, and injuries;
  • Social media buzz and coverage, as well as a horse's popularity with fans;
  • The horse's performance in qualifying races;
  • The trainer;
  • The jockey.

Ultimately, Kentucky Derby odds help players make well-informed decisions. But remember, these odds aren't set in stone — they can shift all the way up to the starting bell.

The Best Way How to Predict Odds for Kentucky Derby

Various methods can be used to to predict race outcomes during the Kentucky Derby, ranging from simple to more complex options. Additionally, live Kentucky Derby odds change continuously, showing how the horse's chances of winning or losing evolve as the race progresses.

Let's take a look at some popular choices surrounding the Kentucky Derby horses and odds:

  • Win: All you need to do is pick the horse you think will come first.
  • Show: Choose a horse to come first, second, or third.
  • Exacta: Select the horses to win first and second place, in that order.
  • Trifecta: Guess the top three horses in the exact order.
  • Superfecta: Predict the first four horses in the exact order you expect them to win.
  • Futures: Predict the horse who will finish first long before the race begins.

While there are more complex ways of making predictions about the Kentucky Derby race outcome, the ones mentioned above are the most common.

How Horses Earn Their Spot in the Kentucky Derby

To qualify for the Kentucky Derby Championship, horses must win points in special races, also called prep races. These races, which include the best two- and three-year-old horses in the US, take place between September and April. . Points are awarded to the top four horses in each race, with more points allocated for better finishes.

According to the system, 10 points are given to each horse for each win. However, as the Kentucky Derby approaches, points increase in value, and winners receive up to 50 or higher for each subsequent race.

Ultimately, the horses that accumulate the most points get to participate in the Kentucky Derby. Also, only 20 horses are allowed to participate in the Derby, with an additional 4 used as a backup if any of the top 20 drop out.

Winners of the Kentucky Derby

The table below shows the winner of the Kentucky Derby over the last five years, as well as the final Kentucky Derby odds:

Year

Winner

Post

Final Odds

2023

Mage

8

14/1

2022

Rick Strike

20

80/1

2021

Medina Spirit

8

12/1

2020

Authentic

18

8/1

2019

Country House

20

65/1

Kentucky Derby 2024 Odds

The final odds for the Kentucky Derby are yet to be released. In the meantime, keep in mind that any lines you may stumble upon are purely speculative, especially before the official Kentucky Derby draw week. We'll update this section as soon as the final odds are released.

A Brief History of the Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby, founded in 1872, is a culmination of intense race outcomes and extravagant fashion. This symbol of American sporting tradition eventually led to the establishment of Churchill Downs, which earned National Historic Landmark status in 1986.

Oliver Lewis from Fayette County was the first jockey to win the Kentucky Derby on his colt Aristides. Nowadays, half of the jockeys come from Latin America, with six being female. However, no woman has won the Kentucky Derby yet.

Dubbed "the greatest two minutes in sports," the event brings in a whopping $150 million in annual revenue.

Kentucky Derby Odds FAQ

What determines the odds in the Kentucky Derby?

Various factors influence the Kentucky Derby odds, such as a horse's performance in qualifying races, recent form, track conditions, public interest, trainer and jockey, and the horse's pedigree.

What were the odds for the Kentucky Derby 2023?

Before winning the Kentucky Derby 2023, Mage closed with 14/1 odds.

How long is a Kentucky Derby race?

A Kentucky Derby race lasts just 2 minutes. Because of this, it's known as “the most exciting 2 minutes in sports.”

Which horse has the best odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby?

As of today, the favorite to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby is Locked, with odds of +1200.

When will the Kentucky Derby take place in 2024?

The Kentucky Derby is scheduled for the first Saturday in May 2024 (May 4) at the world-famous Churchill Downs racecourse. Children under 12 may enter for free with a paying adult.