- Over/Under, also called the Total, is the combined score for both teams regardless of the game winner.
- Several factors can influence the line movement, including weather conditions, injuries, and the location of the game.
- Most sports count overtime toward the total, while soccer includes injury time but often excludes knockout extra time.
Over/Under Explained
The Over/Under is the total number of points scored for both teams in the selected matchup. The pregame odds will vary dramatically in Over/Unders, as a soccer game will have a total of 2.5 goals, while an NBA matchup could have a total as high as 245.5 points.
Knowing what Over/Under means in sports is crucial when making predictions, as it forms the backbone of the sports betting market. Every game, regardless of the odds, will have an Over/Under with -110 odds on each side.
Injuries, weather, matchups, recent form, and many other factors can influence the Over/Under, but there is no denying its importance in the sports world. Before you make Over/Under predictions of your own, let’s dive into what Over/Under means in sports.
What Does Over/Under Mean?
What Does “Over” Mean?
The “Over” is when the total number of points or goals scored is above the Over/Under. It doesn’t matter if one team scores all the points or if it is a very close matchup; all that matters is that the total points scored by both teams combined is above the pregame total.
What Does “Under” Mean?
On the other hand, the “Under” means that the total number of goals or points stayed below the pregame total.
Why It’s Called a “Total”
The Over/Under often gets shortened to the phrase “Total” for simplicity. The two terms can be used interchangeably and mean the same thing. It can be easier for beginners to think of the Over/Under as the total, as most people are familiar with what the total number of goals or points represents.
How the Over/Under Works?
Reading the Numbers
The Over/Under is the total number of points or goals scored by both teams in any given game. It doesn’t matter if the final score is 27-24, or 51-0, either way, the total points would be 51.
When making Over/Under predictions, it is important to predict how the game might play out. If two high-scoring teams face off, it may quickly turn into a goal-fest, but that will be a key influence on the pregame Over/Under.
You will notice that not every game within the same sport will have the same Over/Under, just as they don’t always have the same moneyline odds. Some playstyles lead to high-scoring thrillers, while others lead to low-scoring chess matches.
The Role of the .5 in Over/Under Lines
The role of the .5, or the hook, in Over/Under lines is to help ensure most games have a winner and a loser on the total. The sportsbooks realized that too many people were asking, “What does an Over/Under mean in sports?”, and the flat lines just added to the confusion.
For example, if the total number of goals in an NHL game is set at 6.5, that means that 6 goals would fall Under 6 and a half, while 7 would be Over 6 and a half. If the total was 6 instead of 6.5, this could cause confusion about what happens if the game finished with exactly six goals.
What Happens if the Total Lands Exactly on the Number?
If the total lands precisely on the number, that is called a push. A push means that your prediction is a tie, meaning it isn’t successful or unsuccessful.
This can be common with low-scoring sports, such as soccer, where the Over/Under for the total goals could be exactly 2 or 3 on the pregame odds. If the total is 3, and the game finishes 2-1, that means neither the Over nor Under would be declared a winner, and neither would be declared a loser.
Examples of Over/Under in Sports
The Over/Unders are not the same in every sport, as each sport has its own unique twist on the total. You can make predictions using pregame or live sportsbook odds on the Over/Under, whether it is goals, points, or runs in question.
Football (NFL, College)
In football, whether it is the NFL or in college, an Over/Under will be available for every game.
In the NFL, Over/Unders are often between 38 and 55 points, depending on the matchup. If two strong defenses come up against a pair of struggling quarterbacks, the Over/Under is often quite low.
In college, the totals have a much wider variety of starting points. There can be Over/Unders as high as 70 points between two future NFL quarterbacks, but the total can also be as low as 30 points between two run-heavy teams.
In both the NFL and college football, the Over/Under always includes overtime, which can be especially crucial with the new college football overtime rules.
Basketball (NBA, NCAA)
The NBA and NCAA are two of the best sports to make Over/Under predictions on, as the fast-paced nature ensures there is no shortage of action on both ends of the court.
In the NBA, totals are often between 195 and 250 points, depending on the matchup. The heavy reliance on the three-ball has increased totals in recent seasons, as just a couple of decades ago, the average totals were in the high 100s.
In the NCAA, totals are much lower due to less efficient shooting, coupled with shorter games. Totals can range anywhere from 120 to 170 points in NCAA basketball.
Baseball
Baseball is one of the most interesting sports to predict the total for. The pitching matchup is a massive factor in what the total run line will be, and there can be huge swings in the total if there is a late pitching change.
A matchup between two All-Star pitchers could have a total as low as 5.5 runs, while two struggling arms going head-to-head could have a total as high as 10.5 runs.
Not only that, but the variance in shape and size of the ballparks has an impact on the Over/Under. In Colorado, the altitude allows for an abundance of home runs, and the Over/Under will be significantly higher when the Rockies play at home.
Hockey
Hockey is the most reliable sport in terms of Over/Unders, as the total goals are almost always between 5.5 and 7.5 goals. It doesn’t matter the team, situation, or goaltender; the total goals scored hover in that range.
However, the variance and ‘puck luck’ involved in hockey ensure it is still challenging to predict the total goals scored from one game to another.
Soccer
In soccer, the total refers to the number of goals scored by both sides. Famous for their 0-0 scorelines, soccer usually has a total between 2.5 and 3.5 goals. There can be thrilling matchups with high scorelines, but generally, the totals remain quite low compared to other sports.
International Sports
In addition to the major sports, International sports have a wide variety of Over/Unders.
- In tennis or table tennis, you can make predictions on the number of sets, games, or points needed to declare a winner.
- In cricket, the number of wickets and total runs can be used as Over/Unders.
- The UFC, meanwhile, has an Over/Under for the number of rounds in the fight.
No matter where you look in International sports, the Over/Under always gives you an opportunity to make a prediction.
Why Totals Change in Over/Under
Factors That Influence Line Movement
Several factors will influence line movement. The biggest one is injuries. Assuming the sportsbook has already taken defensive and offensive quality into account, an injury to either team could influence the Over/Under.
For example, if a team’s starting quarterback in football is ruled out, the Over/Under is likely to dip as fewer points will be expected. An injured quarterback will obviously change the line, but even seemingly irrelevant scratches can have a massive impact.
Another example is that many NBA teams have a starter who is there for their ability to defend their opponent’s leading scorers. If he is ruled out, not only will the other team be able to score more, but his team will now replace him with a more offensive-minded player.
In outdoor sports, weather can also significantly impact line movement. If it is windy and rainy, NFL totals tend to be considerably lower as teams struggle to create large passing plays down the field.
Meanwhile, in soccer, a temperate day will see plenty of offense, while a cold and rainy afternoon could see mistakes in front of the goal.
Do Over/Unders Include Overtime?
In most sports, Over/Unders include overtime. In the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL, Over/Unders include overtime or extra innings.
In soccer, injury time is included for Over/Unders, but in a knockout format where extra time is needed, that is often not included in Over/Unders.
In special circumstances, the Over/Under may not, but that can vary from one sportsbook to another.
Over/Under Compared to Other Formats
Spread
The spread and Over/Under often have the same format, and are perfect candidates for parlays. Both will usually have the .5 included on the total, which ensures there will not be a push in your parlay.
A wide spread can impact the Over/Under, but the moneyline is usually a better indicator of how the game will play out.
Moneyline
The Over/Under can have an impact on the moneyline, as can the moneyline impact the Over/Under.
In short, Moneyline is the odds each team has to win the game. For example, if one team is expected to dominate, which is often the case in college football, the Over/Under can be much higher than in a close matchup.
In general, the more lopsided the moneyline odds are, the higher the total will be.
- Learn more: What Does the Moneyline Mean?
Common Questions About Over/Under
How Are Totals Determined?
The oddsmakers at the sportsbooks determine totals, generally setting them at a number where they expect 50% of people to predict the Over and 50% to predict the Under.
A wide variety of factors are considered when setting the total, including recent form, injuries, matchups, strengths and weaknesses for each team, weather, officiating, motivation, location, and so much more. The reason the sportsbooks want 50% on each side is that it limits their exposure to a hotly anticipated contest.
For example, If an NFL game had a total of 60.5 points, everyone would predict the Under. Then the sportsbooks might move the line to 50.5, and now 70% of people are backing the Under, while some have now opted for the Over. The sportsbook then moves the line to 48.5, and all of a sudden, 50% of people are predicting the Over and 50% the Under.
The sportsbook will constantly adjust the line to ensure both the Over and Under have their own appeal.
Can Over/Under Be Combined with Other Formats?
Over/Unders are excellent candidates for combining with other formats. Knowing what the Over/Under means is crucial for making same-game parlays. You can parlay the Over/Under with spreads, moneylines, player props, and much more on most sportsbooks.
- Learn more: What are Parlays?
Final Thoughts on Over/Under in Sports
The Over/Under is one of the original and most popular ways to make predictions on sports. No matter the matchup, the Over/Under will always have odds close to -110 on each side, which ensures that even big mismatches can still have worthwhile predictions.
Making predictions on the total can be one of the best ways to stay ahead, as a good read on your desired matchup can allow for an easy prediction on the Over/Under.
Why It’s Popular in Sweepstakes and Social Sports Platforms
Over/Unders are popular on social sports platforms and in sweepstakes due to their ease for both casual fans and experienced predictors. Regardless of what sport you are using on a social sports platform, the Over/Under is a great way to make predictions at your sportsbook.
