- A moneyline predicts only the winner of a game, where negative odds indicate the favorite and positive odds indicate the underdog.
- American odds translate to implied probability, with -150 implying about 60 percent and +200 implying roughly 33 percent.
- Some sports use a three-way moneyline that treats draws as separate outcomes, unlike standard two-way win-only formats.
Moneyline Explained
The moneyline is the most common method of making predictions, as it is based solely on who will win the game. The margin of victory, total points, or who scored the goals doesn’t matter; only who ends up winning the game.
Once you understand what moneyline odds mean, you can add in other aspects of making predictions on sports to your repertoire.
The Favorite (Negative Numbers)
The favorite in any sport will always be represented with a negative number. The higher the negative number is, the more likely the live sportsbook odds expect them to win.
For example: a -120 favorite has a winning percentage of just over 50%, while a -500 favorite would be seen as very likely to win. Depending on the sport, the moneyline odds for the favorite can be anywhere between -110 and -5000, depending on the matchup.
The Underdog (Positive Numbers)
The underdog will have a positive number attached to their moneyline odds. However, unlike the favorite, the higher the number, the less likely a team is to win.
An underdog with +110 odds would nearly have a 50% chance of winning, while a +1000 underdog would be seen as a real long shot.
Even or Pick ‘em Situations
Most sportsbooks won’t offer +100 odds for both teams in a pick ‘em situation, but rather -110 odds on both sides to ensure they keep a portion of the predictions.
It is very important to recognize whether your team is a favorite, an underdog, or a pick ‘em before making a moneyline prediction, as this will have a significant influence on your likelihood of making a successful moneyline prediction.
How to Read a Moneyline
What Does +200 Mean?
The +200 is in the American odds format, and it means that the selected team is an underdog in the matchup. Since the odds are positive, we know that the team is an underdog, as they would have negative odds if they were the favorite.
Remember, the higher the number is for an underdog, the less likely they are to win. The +200 odds mean that, without juice, the team has a 33.3% chance to win the game. In reality, the absolute odds are likely closer to 30% as it is unlikely the other team will have exactly -200 moneyline odds.
What Does -150 Mean?
The -150 is also in the American odds format, and it means that the selected team is a slight favorite over their opposition. The higher the absolute number is for a favorite, the more likely they are to win the game.
With -150 odds, this means that the selected team has a 60% implied probability of winning.
Examples From Different Sports
Moneylines can vary widely from sport to sport. Some sports have lots of parity and luck on a nightly basis, and therefore often have closer moneyline odds.
In the NHL, it is very rare to have any team with a moneyline higher than -400, as last place can beat first place on any given night. The MLB also has lots of variance, with the longest moneyline odds coming in the -400 range.
However, other sports can have much wider odds. The NFL and NBA routinely see moneyline odds upwards of -1000, and can even get as high as -2000. Soccer and combat sports can be even wider, with -5000 moneyline odds a realistic line for mismatches.
How Moneyline Outcomes Work
Win
If your team wins the game, then your moneyline prediction will be successful. It is essential to understand what a 3-way moneyline means in certain sports, but it is relatively straightforward compared to standard 2-way moneylines.
If your team wins, you are correct, and if your team loses, you are incorrect. The margin of victory doesn’t matter, only whether or not they win the game.
Loss
If your team loses the game, then your moneyline prediction would be settled as a loser. It doesn’t matter if it was a thrilling overtime loss or a first-quarter blowout; every loss is treated the same on the moneyline.
Draw or “No Contest”
In some sports, draws are allowed and can change the moneyline odds. Understanding what 3-way moneylines mean is crucial, as it can significantly impact your strategy when making moneyline predictions.
It is most commonly found in soccer, where you can predict a win for Team A, a draw, or a win for Team B. Hence, the 3-way moneyline title.
A no-contest is most commonly seen in combat sports, such as the UFC and boxing. If the fight needs to be stopped due to an illegal strike or rule violation that makes one fighter unable to continue, a no-contest is the most common outcome.
This is very different from a 3-way line, as a no-contest is similar to a push, since your moneyline prediction would neither be a winner nor a loser.
Understanding Moneyline Numbers
Implied Probability
Before making any moneyline predictions at your sportsbook, understanding implied probability is crucial for success. Every sporting event will have different moneyline odds, but each one is attached to an implied probability.
The implied probability is the likelihood the oddsmakers expect the team to win the game. If the implied probability says the underdog has a 20% chance of winning, but you think they have close to a 30% chance of winning, chances are that is a good moneyline prediction to make.
For underdogs, the higher the number, the less likely they are to win. If you can memorize a few key benchmarks for implied probability, you can set yourself up for success.
- +100 is equal to a 50% implied probability
- +200 is equal to 33% implied probability
- +300 is equal to 25% implied probability
- +400 is equal to 20% implied probability
Most underdog moneylines will fall somewhere in those ranges, and you can quickly calculate the implied probability.
For example, a +188 moneyline is difficult to understand, but quickly knowing it is just under 33% gives you a good idea of what the implied probability is. The same principle can be applied for favorites, where you have to reverse the odds and percentages to get the implied probability.
Why Numbers Move or Shift
Moneyline odds can shift dramatically, usually due to injury news impacting the team’s implied probability.
If the Los Angeles Dodgers have a 70% chance of winning, but then star player Shohei Ohtani is suddenly ruled out, their moneyline odds may shift downwards to reflect that change.
Another reason moneyline odds can move is if one side is receiving a large majority of the action. Sportsbooks want an equivalent number of people predicting each side to win, so they will adjust the numbers one way or the other to incentivize a shift in the prediction trends.
Key Factors That Influence the Line
Several key factors influence the moneyline. Recent form and general opinions on the players or teams are the most significant factors, but rest, weather, venue, and injuries play a role, too. If one team strings together several wins, it is reasonable to expect them to be favored on the moneyline for their future games.
Moneyline Across Different Sports
Football and Basketball Examples
Football and basketball will often have a clear favorite on the moneyline, but upsets can still happen. The moneyline for the favorite can range anywhere from -115 to -2000, depending on the two teams playing.
That is at the professional level, but in the NCAA, it can be even more lopsided. Some college football matchups have spreads of 40+ points, and moneyline odds will not be offered as the oddsmakers expect one team to win more than 99% of the time.
Upsets can happen, but they are far less common than in the other North American sports.
Baseball and Hockey Examples
In baseball and hockey, upsets happen on a nightly basis. The nature of the sport means that last place can beat first place with a few bounces in their favor, and the moneyline odds are often much closer than in football or basketball.
It is very rare to see any moneylines with longer than +400 odds in the MLB or NHL, as even the lowly Colorado Rockies can beat the mighty New York Yankees if they hit a few home runs.
Puck luck is a real thing in hockey, and a few lucky bounces can allow a bottom-feeder to upset a Stanley Cup favorite.
Soccer: The Three-Way Moneyline
The 3-way moneyline is unique to soccer, as draws are common in the sport. This means that the favorite could have plus odds, as a common 3-way moneyline might have +110 odds for Team A, +250 odds for the draw, and +175 odds for Team B.
Draws add an extra option for the final score, making it more difficult to predict an outright winner. While getting +110 moneyline odds on the favorite will be tempting, it is essential to note that a draw is considered a loss, not a push, when using the 3-way moneyline.
Moneylines vs. Other Sports Formats
Point Spread
Moneylines are different from point spreads, as the moneyline doesn’t care about the margin of victory.
A team can win the game but fail to cover the spread with a negative moneyline, or they can lose the game but still cover the point spread if they are underdogs. While these two terms are closely related, understanding the difference between a moneyline and a spread is essential.
Over/Under
The Over/Under is a great candidate to parlay with the moneyline, as the two are usually not correlated.
The Over/Under refers to the total number of points or goals scored by both teams combined, whereas the moneyline concerns the winner and loser of the matchup. You can boost your moneyline odds by parlaying it with either the over or under.
- Learn More: What Does Over/Under Mean?
Common Questions About Moneylines
Why Do Moneylines Change?
Moneylines can change for several reasons. The most common is a late injury after the moneyline odds have already been released.
This can result in a slight but noticeable change in the moneyline odds. The other common reason for moneylines to change is a significant skew in predictions placed on one side compared to the other.
If one team is receiving a high percentage of the predictions, the sportsbook will adjust the moneyline odds, for example, from -200 to -240, as a deterrent for more moneyline predictions on that team.
What Is Implied Probability?
Implied probability is the probability the moneyline odds suggest each team has to win the given matchup. This is a crucial tool for evaluating whether to make a moneyline prediction at the current odds.
What is a good moneyline prediction at +200 odds may not be a good moneyline prediction at -150, as it all depends on the implied probability calculation.
Can Moneylines Be Combined With Other Formats?
Yes, moneylines can be parlayed with various formats, including totals, player props, and even spreads, if you are confident in the margin of victory. Moneylines can be one of the most effective parlay pieces, as they are enjoyable to cheer for and can significantly boost your parlay’s odds.
- Learn More: What are Parlays?
Final Thoughts on Moneylines in Sports
Why They Matter in Sweepstakes and Social Sports Platforms
Moneylines are the backbone of sports and are crucial for sweepstakes and social sports platforms.
Social sportsbooks like Sportzino operate numerous moneyline sweepstakes, ranging from the grueling MLB regular season to grand events like the Super Bowl. By using moneyline predictions on social sportsbooks, you can maximize your chances of making successful predictions daily.
