The ‘spread’ or ‘run line’ can be explained as a way to bring a big favorite’s odds down, or increase the chance an underdog will get a victory.
It’s common to see someone like the LA Dodgers have a -300 moneyline odds attached to their victory, but by playing a -1.5 run spread at -110 odds, the breakeven percentage decreases drastically. The spread is the easiest way to increase your odds on a baseball prediction.
What Does the Point Spread Mean in Baseball?
A point spread increases the odds on a baseball prediction by essentially giving a free run to the underdog when predicting the favorite to win. Alternatively, it increases the likelihood of a winner when predicting the underdog, even if that means slightly reducing the odds.
Spread
It is almost always set at -1.5 in favor of the favorite in any baseball game.
What the spread means is that the favorite, let’s stick with the Dodgers, needs to win the game by 2 or more runs to be declared the winner against the spread. If the Dodgers win the game 4-3, while their moneyline will be a winner, the -1.5 point spread would be marked as the loser. Alternatively, if you’re riding with the underdog, the Detroit Tigers could come into a game against the Dodgers with +250 odds to win, and -110 odds to cover the +1.5 point spread in the baseball game. If the Dodgers win 4-3, the Tigers will have obviously lost the game, but if you took the -110 odds on the +1.5 spread, it would be declared the winner.
| Outcome | Moneyline Winner (Dodgers) | Spread Winner (Dodgers) | Result | Explanation |
| Dodgers Win 4-3 | Yes | No | Loss | Dodgers win, but don’t cover |
| Dodgers win 4-1 | Yes | Yes | Win | Dodgers win and cover |
| Tigers win 4-1 | No | No | Loss | Dodgers lose and don’t cover |
| Outcome | Moneyline Winner (Tigers) | Spread Winner (Tigers) | Result | Explanation |
| Dodgers Win 4-3 | No | Yes | Win | Tigers lose, but cover |
| Dodgers win 4-1 | No | No | Loss | Tigers lose and don’t cover |
| Tigers win 4-1 | Yes | Yes | Win | Tigers win and cover |
A few critical notes: If the game goes to extra innings, that has no impact on the spread, as it will be settled based on the final score regardless of innings. Additionally, the home team is at a disadvantage in this market, as if they are winning by a single run, they will not have a chance to bat in the bottom of the ninth inning, reducing the chance for a cover.
Moneyline
The moneyline is nothing other than which team will win the game. Regardless of the odds or spread, this is the simplest way to attack baseball odds. It can result in wide odds, like a -300 favorite and a +250 underdog, but for a pure entertainment value, this is the way to go.
Favorites
The favorite is the team with the most likely chance to win, as dictated by the odds and the point spread in baseball. This is often the home team or the team with the hotter bats. This could result in a -1.5 point spread attached to their victory.
Underdogs
The underdog is the team that is expected to lose the game. This means there are often better moneyline odds available, and you can even take the +1.5 point spread to increase the odds of a winner. If a team has a favorable pitching matchup or the odds are too wide, the underdog can be a great way to attack the baseball market.
How Do You Read Baseball Spreads?
In order to read a spread in baseball, you must change the way a scoreline is perceived. An extra run is added or taken away from the final score, changing the outcome of baseball predictions.
What does a +7 Spread Mean?
A +7 spread is not something you would ever see when talking about point spreads in baseball, but it’s a good way to get familiar with the spreads and odds. A +7 spread would mean that whichever team you back would need to stay within 7 runs at the end of the game to be declared the winner against the spread. The easiest way to think about it is to simply add 7 runs to the final score. If a team loses 6-3, you add 7 runs, and suddenly, the baseball spread score is 10-6, making you the winner.
What Does -1.5 and +1.5 Spread Mean in Baseball?
The -1.5 and +1.5 spread is the most common baseball point spread, and you will only occasionally see the line go up to +/-2.5. This means the -1.5 point favorite would need to win by 2 or more runs, since we are essentially subtracting 1.5 runs from the final score. If a team wins 5-4, and we have to subtract 1.5 runs from the score, the baseball spread score would be 3.5-4, resulting in a loss. Alternatively, if the underdog is your team of choice, they can win by any number, as adding 1.5 runs won’t change the outcome, or lose by a single run to cover the spread.
What Does a Negative Run Line Mean in Baseball?
A negative run line means that the favorite needs to win by multiple runs to be declared the point-spread winner. This is a way to allow the odds to stay reasonable for America’s favorite MLB teams.
There would be no reason to back the Yankees or Dodgers if the odds are in the -300 range on a nightly basis, so the negative run line ensures reasonable odds are always available, regardless of how lopsided the matchup may be.
How Much Could You Make on Spread Predictions in Baseball?
It is very common for new fans to get confused about the point-spread and how it works in baseball. The spread allows fans of the best teams in the league to possibly make more without needing to back -300 moneylines. The spread can potentially allow followers to make more, as the daily return could be increased thanks to the reduction in odds.
