NBA Finals Game 3 Predictions

Oklahoma City reminded the league they are still the team to beat with their dominant Game 2 victory. As the series heads to Indiana, it is time to consider your NBA Finals Game 3 predictions. The Pacers let their early series lead slip away, but that doesn’t mean they should be ignored with your Pacers vs Thunder prediction. Tyrese Haliburton completely fell asleep in the first half of the last game, scoring just two points before erupting for 12 in the fourth quarter. He will undoubtedly be a central point of the Pacers’ offense in Game 3, and a strong game from him could be enough to push the Pacers over the line. Meanwhile, the Thunder continue to receive dominant play on both ends of the court from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and their depth has been a real difference-maker in this series. Will the Pacers reclaim a series advantage, or will the Thunder make it look easy in Indiana? Let’s jump into your NBA Finals Game 3 predictions to find out. 

Matchup: Pacers vs Thunder Overview

• Teams: Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Wednesday, June 11th, 2025
• Time: Tip-off is at 8:30 PM EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana

NBA Finals Game 3 Odds

Even though this series is shifting to Indiana for Games 3 and 4, the Oklahoma City Thunder are still favorites on the basketball odds. Indiana has already proven they can go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the league, and they will fully understand the importance of winning this game at home. For the total points, Games 1 and 2 averaged 225.5 points per game, so it is no surprise to see the NBA odds for the total points very close to that number. 

check out our full 2025 NBA Finals Prediction analysis

Win Probabilities:

The NBA win probabilities have levelled out after lopsided NBA odds in the first two games of this series. The Oklahoma City Thunder remain favorites to win, but a much closer game is expected, as they have just a 62.53% chance of winning Game 3. Across the court, the Pacers return home and face a crucial point in the series. Indiana has a 37.47% chance of winning according to the NBA win probabilities, as they cannot afford to let home-court advantage slip away. 

Projected Final Score:

The projected final score utilizes expert NBA predictions in conjunction with insights from recent games between these two teams. For Game 3 of the NBA Finals, the projected final score is Oklahoma City Thunder 116-113 Indiana Pacers. 

Expert Prediction: Who Wins? 

Why the Indiana Pacers Could Win Game 3

The Indiana Pacers are heading home, and that will help them shake off the demoralizing loss in Game 2. The Pacers did a good job at leveling out the turnovers after being dominated in Game 1, but they failed to capitalize on their open shots throughout the game. 

The Pacers have shot better at home all year, as their bench becomes an even bigger weapon in Indiana. Players like TJ McConnell and Obi Toppin will not be making national television headlines, but their impact cannot be overstated. The Pacers have been able to overcome their seeming lack of top-end talent with a deep bench, and that will be their key to victory in Game 3. They will not be able to outduel the Thunder’s starting five featuring Gilgeous-Alexander, but the home crowd energy combined with a hot night from deep could allow them to regain a series advantage heading into Game 4. 

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Could Win Game 3

The Oklahoma City Thunder put together one of the best regular seasons of all time, and they can win any NBA game on any given night. Gilgeous-Alexander continues to dominate on both ends of the court, and the Thunder will need every player in their ten-man rotation to match the intensity the Pacers will undoubtedly bring. 

Oklahoma City led the league in turnovers generated while committing the fewest turnovers themselves in the regular season. Their fresh legs on defense have allowed them to control this series for long stretches, and they cannot let that slip on the road. One player that needs to step up for the Thunder is Chet Holmgren. Holmgren has the potential to be the second option after Gilgeous-Alexander on this team, but he has had a slow series so far. A big game from the Thunder’s big man will allow Oklahoma City to win Game 3 and take a crucial series lead in the 2025 NBA Finals. 

NBA Finals Game 3 Predictions

Home court traditionally plays a significant role in determining the winner of the NBA Finals, and must be taken into account when making your Thunder vs Pacers prediction. I agree the Thunder should remain favorites as they hit the road; however, the reduction in the point spread is far too drastic. Oklahoma City doesn’t have the household names on its roster, but it is hard to overlook the greatest regular-season point differential of all time. This is a well-built squad that we now have the chance to take with reduced NBA odds, and it is the perfect NBA Finals Game 3 prediction to make. The moneyline is the safer pick, but the Thunder will win by enough points to cover the spread, too, in Game 3. 

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 9 points, and cover the -5.5 point spread 

How to Make NBA Finals Game 3 Picks

The best place to make NBA Finals Game 3 picks is on Sportzino. Sportzino allows you to make free NBA picks and predictions throughout the Finals, and the wide variety of NBA odds creates numerous possibilities for your NBA parlays.