The Miami Heat head to the TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics in a rematch of their 2024 first-round playoff series. Getting past Miami was Boston’s first hurdle before they went on to win the NBA championship last year, and the Celtics will be confident they can pick up a win in Wednesday’s matchup as well. Boston has strung together nine consecutive wins to pull away from the New York Knicks and solidify their hold on second place. They are now poised to face the top Play-In Tournament team in the first round.
Meanwhile, the Heat arrive in Boston with a win streak of their own, having won five straight to move past the Chicago Bulls into ninth place in the Eastern Conference. Miami still sits a game and a half back of the Orlando Magic for the eighth seed, and a victory here could put them on course for another first-round showdown with Boston. The Heat have managed to stay afloat since trading Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors, but getting past the Celtics at TD Garden will be a true test of their mettle.
Will Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown impose their will, or could a moment of complacency allow Miami to pull off a massive upset?
Matchup: Heat vs Celtics Overview
- Teams: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
- Date: Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025
- Time: Tip-off is at 7:30 PM EST
- Venue: TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
Win Probabilities:
The NBA win probabilities have left no doubt about who is expected to win this game. Elite three-point shooting from all five Celtics starters has propelled them to a 90.11% chance of winning, based on the NBA win probabilities. However, the Heat will feel incredibly disrespected by the projections, as they have seemingly disregarded the five-game win streak the Heat bring into this matchup. The Miami Heat have just a 9.89% chance to upset the NBA odds.
Projected Final Score:
The projected final score suggests this contest could be decided early, with Boston expected to dominate. Insights from recent NBA games, combined with expert predictions, indicate a comfortable Celtics victory, with the projected final score being: Boston Celtics 120-106 Miami Heat.
Heat vs Celtics Odds
The NBA odds have elected to disregard the Miami Heat’s five-game winning streak as they expect the Boston Celtics to pull off a one-sided victory on Wednesday night. It’s no surprise that the Celtics are heavy favorites, and playing at home has only strengthened their case.
Despite the large point spread, don’t expect Boston to run up the score, as the total points line is set lower than usual—a nod to Miami’s stingy defense.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why the Miami Heat Could Win
The Miami Heat previously lost 10 games in a row beginning on March 5th—the longest losing streak of Erik Spoelstra’s tenure in South Beach. However, that feels like a distant memory, as the Heat have strung together five straight wins over the last two weeks and suddenly look determined to qualify for the NBA playoffs.
Now that Butler is out of the picture, Tyler Herro has stepped up when it matters most. Long overshadowed by Butler, Herro is now Miami’s go-to scoring option. His partnership with Bam Adebayo has flourished in recent weeks, and the duo appears capable of pulling off dramatic upsets in this year’s postseason.
While the Heat rising from the ashes makes for a compelling storyline, they will need to play near-perfect basketball to defy the odds with a win over the Celtics. Boston thrives on three-point shooting, and limiting their success from beyond the arc must be Miami’s top priority. The Heat aren’t a strong perimeter-shooting team, but if they can match the Celtics’ production from deep, they might have a chance at pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the NBA season.
Why the Boston Celtics Could Win
Boston has won nine straight and shows no signs of slowing down. The Celtics have proven that last year’s championship was no fluke, as they continue to rout teams like the Heat on a regular basis. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are two of the NBA’s premier scorers, and their partnership continues to grow with each passing year.
The Celtics certainly have star power in the frontcourt, but their true strength lies in their depth. Not only do they have one of the best starting units in the league, but Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner Payton Pritchard has given them a consistent spark off the bench. Boston’s 56-19 record this season is an accurate reflection of just how dominant this team has been.
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