Two teams whose 2024-25 NBA seasons will be defined by significant trades will face off in Texas on Thursday night. The Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks, old NBA Finals rivals, will come together again.
The Heat’s trade of Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors ended a long, tedious drama. Miami is perhaps worse off on paper without Butler. With the melodramatic star out of town, however, the Heat can now refocus on the task at hand and begin a climb in the Eastern Conference ahead of playoffs.
General manager Nico Harrison left a lasting legacy in Dallas with a trade that sent Luka Doncic to Hollywood. Following Doncic’s departure and Anthony Davis’s injury, the Mavs are struggling to recover from a season ruined by one man’s ego.
With an NBA League Pass special on the slate this week in Texas, check out our Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for February 13 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Matchup Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Overview
Teams: Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
Date: Thursday, February 13, 2025
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks is the Dallas Mavericks.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Dallas Mavericks 94-105 Miami Heat.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
While the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat have recently lost their best player and brightest star, they are both well accustomed to playing without them.
The Mavs had been without Doncic since Christmas Day when he limped off the floor against the Minnesota Timberwolves with a calf strain that has kept him sidelined even in his early days in Los Angeles. Miami, meanwhile, has spent this year in a dance with Jimmy Butler, with the focused veteran either suspended or disinterested all season long.
Butler’s departure should actually benefit Miami, bringing clarity and peace to one of the league’s traditionally strong organizations. While Dallas’s shock was understandable, the team’s victories against the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics following Doncic’s departure are extremely encouraging.
With both teams having effectively turned the page, we’ll do the same ahead of a fun matchup.
Why the Miami Heat Can Cover
With or without Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat offense tends to descend into being a gritty, grinding away attack. There is a lack of efficiency, and outside of Tyler Herro, there are players who can create their own offense.
The result is an offense that ranks 24th in offensive rating over the last 10 games and just 19th in the season-long metric. That inefficiency is also true of Miami’s shooting splits, with it sitting 24th in the true shooting percentage over its last 10 games. A gift awaits on Thursday night for an offense that finds life awfully hard in most matchups.
Not only will the Mavericks be without Anthony Davis and the ridiculous defensive coverage he offers, but they’ll also be without center Derrick Lively Jr., who remains out with an ankle injury. With just Daniel Gafford left to man the middle for Dallas, Miami’s slashers in Herro and the incoming Andrew Wiggins will face considerably less resistance at the rim.
The absence of Davis and Lively will also significantly enhance the impact of Bam Adebayo. Adebayo can take games over when opponents aren’t equipped to handle his physicality and athleticism in the paint. While Davis is, in theory, the perfect defender for Bam, he won’t be there to slow his Olympic teammate down this time.
The Heat can comfortably count on a superior defensive performance, and if they can get one of Wiggins or Herro rolling against a shorthanded Mavs defense, they’ll have a great shot in Dallas.
Why the Dallas Mavericks Can Cover
With Anthony Davis injured again, already for the Mavs, it turns back into a Kyrie Irving-centric show in Dallas. And luckily for Dallas, that is completely fine in this matchup.
While the Heat have a very strong defensive structure and a singularly impactful defender in Bam Adebayo, their lack of perimeter resistance has arisen throughout the year. Miami is ninth in defensive rating this year and 11th over its last 10 games, but it doesn’t exactly limit its opponents’ shooting.
On the season, Heat opponents are taking 42.5% of their total shots from three-point range, a mark that is in the bottom half of the entire league. Foes are hitting them at around a league-average rate, but this specific foe, the Mavs, is adept at shot making.
So far this year, Irving has been a 40% three-point shooter and continues to creep closer to an illustrious 50/40/90 campaign. Irving’s shot-making ability, ability to collapse defenses, and ability to create shots for others have been vital.
For his part, Klay Thompson has been a 39% shooter from deep this year on his typical high volume of around eight attempts per game. And, flanking them on the wing is PJ Washington, who has turned himself into a knockdown three and D wing in Dallas. The former Hornet is currently making 38% of his threes on four attempts per game.
High volume and good shooting teams have a built-in advantage, with the potential to swing the math of any game in their favor—especially when their opponents can’t meet them at the same level. Even with the Mavericks’ weakened defensive personnel, they have a clear path to win this game. Miami will struggle to keep up if Irving, Thompson, and company can start cooking on offense and knocking down shots.
How to Make Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks
Ready to make picks on the Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks matchup on Thursday, February 13? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
