The second half of the 2025/26 NBA regular season will begin in earnest this weekend, and the Western Conference has a clash of superstars to help get things back underway.
Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, resuming their push for a top three seed in the West, will head to Northern California and the Bay for a meeting with the Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors, for their part, are firmly in a crowded field of teams vying for positions in the Western Conference play-in tournament. Though they left many disappointed by a lack of trade deadline activity, the Dubs will likely see the return of supernova Steph Curry, while the incoming Kristaps Porzingis is likely to suit up for his new team, too.
With a clash of stars with fresh legs on the slate for a matinee this Sunday in the Bay Area, check out our Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets predictions, including our expert NBA prediction, with tip set for February 22 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Matchup Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Overview
- Teams: Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
- Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Chase Center
Win Probabilities
The NBA odds and lines have been generated using insights from recent NBA games in combination with expert NBA picks and predictions. The Golden State Warriors have been given a 43.8% chance to win this NBA game. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets have a 56.2% chance according to the NBA win probabilities.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the Golden State, but for the Denver Nuggets to prevail with a final score of Denver Nuggets 112-108 Golden State Warriors.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why the Golden State Warriors Can Cover
As the last lights of the Golden State Warriors’ dynasty have faded, and the team has rolled out middling rotations overly reliant on Steph Curry and aging co-stars, they have leaned more and more into what brought them into NBA consciousness in the first place.
While at this point in the sport’s history, no level of three point shooting reliance would surprise—with nearly every team taking the number of threes that the Warriors set out to take a decade ago—the Dubs’ 2025/26 team has tripled down on that approach. And, ultimately, they have done so through necessity, with a talent poor team incapable of keeping pace with the league’s best otherwise.
So far this year, Golden State takes 50.8% of its total shots from distance—which leads the league by a considerable margin. Not only is it the only team in the league to be taking more than half of its total shots from deep, but the gap between it and the Brooklyn Nets, who take the second-greatest percentage of their shots from three point range (46.9%), is nearly the same as the gap between Brooklyn and the Atlanta Hawks, who rank 11th in this metric.
Unsurprisingly, with such a firm commitment to the three ball, the Warriors also rely on it for offensive production. With 42.4% of their total points coming from three pointers, the Dubs are first in the league in production off the deep ball—and again by a wide margin, with the same gap between themselves and the second-ranked Boston Celtics as there is from the Celtics to the eight ranked Chicago Bulls.
With the Warriors just 15th in offensive efficiency, however, there needs to be a catch somewhere—with that ranking not reflective of the value and efficiency in taking threes en masse. And there is. Unfortunately, Golden State’s simply a mediocre shooting team. It ranks 12th in the league as a team in three point percentage, making just 36.2% of its threes as a team.
While the Warriors have gotten 40% shooting at high volume from Curry and Moses Moody, it’s bleak elsewhere. Pat Spencer’s making 40% on just two attempts per game, while Brandin Podziemski is connecting on 37% as the only other member of the rotation hitting at a decent clip.
While the Denver Nuggets do concede a decent number of three pointers per game, in the bottom half of the league in three point rate against at 41.8%, the Warriors’ success or failure in this spot will exemplify the NBA being a make or miss league. That has already been evidenced in these teams’ first two meetings, too.
When the Warriors and Nuggets met in the second game of the season, the Dubs came out as six-point winners, having made 38% of the 47 threes they got up. In an early November rematch, however, Denver blew Golden State out by 25 points. While the Warriors got up another 41 threes in that game, they made just a paltry 29% of them—effectively sinking their hopes.
When, as a team, the Warriors are connecting at a good rate from deep, they become a difficult foe to keep pace with. Even if it’s just Curry getting hot, as he so often does, they can become a raging hot flamethrower. Yet, that shooting efficiency has come and gone throughout this season. Their hopes of covering against a superior Nuggets team will come down to which version of the three point shooting Warriors shows up.
- ALSO CHECK OUT: Lakers vs Celtics Prediction
Why the Denver Nuggets Can Cover
Now that the Denver Nuggets are slowly inching toward a healthy rotation again—though they are still without both Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon—teams are going to have to face a tougher test. Not just because they have to contend with the greatest player alive in Nikola Jokic, but because Jokic having reinforcements makes the best strategy for slowing them so much harder.
In both incredible wins and some tough losses this year, Denver has been faced with opponents focusing entirely on Jokic’s co-stars and trying to make the sweet passing big man become a scorer.
While he is an unstoppable offensive force and capable of absurd scoring performances, it isn’t his natural inclination—and has led him into some wonky performances previously. It has also, however, led to some vintage Jokic performances, like in January when the L.A. Clippers tried to force Jokic to become a scorer—only for him to score 55 in a Nuggets victory.
Despite Jamal Murray flanked by Cam Johnson once again, after the latter’s return from injury, we’ll likely see the Golden State Warriors hone in on Jokic’s two main running mates and force the big man into becoming a scorer. And that is, ultimately, the biggest reason to believe in Denver’s ability to cover.
The Nuggets can cover if Jokic is able to comfortably become his team’s number one scoring option, and take advantage of an undersized and unimpressive front court in Golden State. Barring a rare, cold shooting night out of one of the most efficient offensive players ever, that should not be a problem for Jokic and the Nuggets.
Current Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Golden State Warriors | +128 | +4 | O 220 |
| Denver Nuggets | –128 | -4 | U 220 |
How to Make Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Picks
Ready to make picks on the Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets matchup on Sunday, February 22?
Make sure to head over to Sportzino.com, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
