On Thursday afternoon, the San Antonio Spurs will travel to the Midwest to face the Indiana Pacers in an intriguing cross-conference matchup that harkens back to the previous generation in the NBA.
These two teams have some interesting contrasts, and the intrigue comes in something the Pacers and Spurs share—a future superstar. In Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio has the future of the league and a player who’s already playing at an All-NBA level in the 2024-25 season.
Indiana, meanwhile, continues to hold lofty expectations of point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Though the point guard has struggled this season, the passing range and pace of play make Haliburton and the Pacers an entertaining watch.
With a fascinating Eastern Conference versus Western Conference battle on the schedule this Thursday afternoon in Indy, check out our San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for January 23 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup San Antonio Spurs vs Indiana Pacers Overview
Teams: San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
Date: Thursday, January 23, 2025
Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Accor Arena
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the San Antonio Spurs and the Indiana Pacers is the Indiana Pacers.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Indiana Pacers 100-104 San Antonio Spurs.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Though the San Antonio Spurs are ninth in the Western Conference and firmly in the play-in tournament picture, and the Indiana Pacers are fifth in the Eastern Conference—clear of their own play-in picture—little separates these two. The Pacers are just a couple of games ahead of the Spurs, which yet again illustrates the gulf in competitiveness between the two conferences.
While it’s just one of two meetings between the Spurs and Pacers this year, they contrast endlessly with one another.
In Tyrese Haliburton—and head coach Rick Carlisle—the Pacers have the DNA of a run-and-gun team that wants to play at an electric pace and let it fly. With Haliburton flanked by Pascal Siakim, Indiana never has any issue getting up and down at a pace that challenges its opponents.
Meanwhile, San Antonio has the league’s best rim protector on defense and the league’s most shrewd veteran point guard on the other side. With Victor Wembanyama patrolling on defense and Chris Paul operating the offense, the Spurs are content to play at their own pace and try to slow opponents down with them.
That contrast serves to set up a great matinée on Thursday.
Why the San Antonio Spurs Can Cover
Victor Wembanyama, the presumptive Defensive Player of the Year and arguably the league’s best defender, makes it unsurprising that the San Antonio Spurs’ defense is their primary strength. Though they are just an above-average team defensively, those metrics skyrocket when isolated for Wemby’s minutes.
So, when considering the Spurs’ approach to covering against the Indiana Pacers, it is about their defense and their ability to effectively shut down Indiana’s offense. Luckily for the Spurs, they can do just that.
With Tyrese Haliburton at the controls, Indiana creates offense in transition, penetrating the paint and getting the opposing defense into rotation. On the season, the Pacers are 11th in adjusted offensive rating but score the sixth-most points in the paint per game, at 51.2, and the sixth-most points in transition, at 17.1. That is, a massive majority of their offense is manufactured in two ways.
However, Wemby and the Spurs’ defense can slow down or block those two routes. With Wembanyama’s length shutting down the interior, the Spurs have allowed just 46.1 paint points per game this year, which is tied for sixth-best in the league. Their youth and coachability shine in transition, as they’ve hovered around a top-10 transition defense all year.
San Antonio can play effective, mistake-free basketball and be competitive in most games. It can cover in this matchup if they can shut down the Pacers’ favorite routes to points.
Why the Indiana Pacers Can Cover
Just as the Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, and other teams have learned over the years, there is a downside to having a generational talent—like the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama—to count on. That downside is that, despite their individual impact, their teams have to find ways to survive the minutes those stars aren’t out there.
Those Wembanyama-free minutes are the Pacers’ best way to win this game. That’s because, while Wemby has the Spurs fighting for a playoff spot and performing like a top-five team when on the floor, they bottom out without him.
With Wemby on the floor, San Antonio’s averaging around 115.5 points per 100 possessions. Without him, however, that figure falls to 108.7—a difference of 6.8 points, or basically the gap from a top 10 offense to a bottom 3 offense.
Defensively, it’s even more of a difference. When Wemby is patrolling the hardwood, San Antonio allows 110.7 points per 100 possessions. Without him, it’s giving up an offensive rating of 118.9. Again, that’s essentially going from a top 10 defense to a bottom three defense when Wembanyama is on the floor compared to off it.
So, while the Pacers are overmatched against Wemby, they can take advantage of the time he rests to exploit San Antonio. Indiana is a highly efficient team, with the 7th best true shooting percentage in the NBA and an adjusted offensive rating hovering around the top 10. If the Pacers can conduct an efficient offense, as they often do, in the 15 minutes Wembanyama sits, they could defend home court with a victory.
How to Make San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers Picks
Ready to make picks on the San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers matchup on Thursday, January 23? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend and so much more!
