Two teams headed in opposite directions will meet in Texas on Sunday night, as the ascendant San Antonio Spurs host the moribund New Orleans Pelicans.
The Spurs, thanks to Victor Wembanyama’s continued rise to superstardom and an improved rotation around him, have crept all the way up to the Western Conference’s No. 2 seed. Already this regular season, they’ve shown they can hang with any team, beating the Oklahoma City Thunder twice and splitting a pair of epics with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Pelicans, meanwhile, are in a dreary spot. Not only do the Pels sit dead last in the Western Conference—with the joint fewest wins across the league—but lottery luck isn’t even in their future after a misguided trade during last year’s NBA Draft.
With an NBA League Pass special on the slate this Sunday in Texas, the NBA odds are in. Check out our San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Pelicans predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for January 25 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup San Antonio Spurs vs New Orleans Pelicans Overview
Teams: San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center
Win Probabilities
The NBA win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NBA games, along with expert NBA picks and predictions. The San Antonio Spurs have been given a 69% chance to win this NBA game. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have a 31% chance according to the NBA win probabilities.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the Lone Star State, with the San Antonio Spurs prevailing 105-99 over the New Orleans Pelicans.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why the San Antonio Spurs Can Cover
The San Antonio Spurs enter Sunday night as a vastly better, more talented team than the New Orleans Pelicans. They should be expected to win comfortably already, but by turning off the Pels’ main source of production, they can do enough to cover the spread here, too. Unfortunately for New Orleans, the Spurs are well-equipped to do just that.
Between their highest usage offensive player in Zion Williamson, who controls a team high 28.7% usage, and emerging offensive hub in big man Derik Queen, who leads the team in assists at 4.4 per game, the Pelicans find so much of their production in the paint.
Whether it’s Williamson collapsing a defense and getting all the way to the rim, or finding Queen around the elbow and allowing him to create from there, the paint is a vital life source for New Orleans.
On the season, no team scores more points in the paint per game than New Orleans’ 58.2. That reliance on penetrating the defense will be tested by the Spurs, who defend the paint as well as any team in the league.
Thanks to Victor Wembanyama’s transcendent length and rim protection, and San Antonio’s use of two big lineups, the Spurs have been among the league’s best paint defenses this season. On the year, the Spurs allow an average of 46.5 paint points per game, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league.
San Antonio’s ability to shut down the Pelicans’ main source of offense has already shined this year, with it 3-0 against the Pels on the season.
Provided San Antonio can maintain their typical defensive performance, the top NBA basketball odds predict they should sweep the season at 4-0.
Why the New Orleans Pelicans Can Cover
To the credit of the New Orleans Pelicans—despite the continued underwhelming all-around play—they have done a good job of recognizing the strengths of their rotation. A main feature of that has been leaning into the athleticism of a young group and an ability to play in transition.
Between a dynamic rookie guard in Jeremiah Fears, the always explosive Zion Williamson, and a pair of wings capable of grabbing a rebound and leading a break in Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones, the Pelicans have proven to be efficient in transition this season.
The Pels are a top 10 team in fast break points per game this year, averaging 15.8 points in open floor situations.
New Orleans has recognized this as a source of production on a talent-poor team, too, emphasizing creating turnovers. Despite a team defense that ranks last in the NBA, allowing an average of 120.69 points per 100 possessions, it has consistently forced turnovers.
The Pelicans’ defense is 13th in the NBA in turnovers forced per game, at 14.7, and is genuinely dogged like the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic.
Though thanks to good coaching and a deep backcourt capable of initiating, San Antonio’s avoided turnovers this season—its per-game average of 13.5 is a top-five mark in the league—it has been hounded by the Pelicans a couple of times already this year.
Early in the season, the Pelicans lost by 4 points to the Spurs, hanging around thanks to the extra possessions they created from 19 Spurs turnovers, including 10 by Stephon Castle. Then, in a three-point loss in early December, the then three-win Pelicans forced the Spurs into 15 turnovers and helped themselves hang around against a vastly superior team.
Though it is out of character for the Spurs to be sloppy with possessions, the Pelicans have already forced them into such a night twice before this season.
Provided New Orleans can repeat that feat and continue to be efficient in fast-break situations, it can manufacture enough extra possessions to hang around in San Antonio.
- ALSO CHECK OUT: New York Knicks vs Brooklyn Nets Predictions
Current San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Pelicans Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| San Antonio Spurs | -245 | -6.5 | 204.5 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | +205 | +6.5 | 204.5 |
How to Make San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Pelicans Picks
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