The Memphis Grizzlies head back to their home court with their collective tails between their legs, having been roundly humbled and humiliated by the Oklahoma City Thunder to begin the 2025 NBA playoffs.
Memphis’ route to the postseason included a pair of play-in games, forcing it to open a series against the NBA’s best team on short rest. The result was as expected, and now, Memphis has to respond on home court to avoid a brutal deficit.
The Thunder, meanwhile, are handling business as one would expect a one seed to. They’ve displayed a variety of ways to exploit the Grizzlies’ weakness, and are in complete and total control in their first-round series.
With an NBA TV special on the slate this Thursday in Tennessee, check out our Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for April 24 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Matchup Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Overview
Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Date: Thursday, April 24, 2025
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Venue: FedEx Forum
Win Probabilities
The NBA win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NBA games, combined with expert NBA picks and predictions. The Oklahoma City Thunder led the Western Conference in the regular season and stormed into this series, giving them a chance to win this NBA game. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies limped into the postseason and have a chance according to the NBA win probabilities.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score in Tennessee has the Oklahoma City Thunder prevailing with a final score of 124-110 over the Memphis Grizzlies.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
The Memphis Grizzlies showed up in a big way on Friday and handily dispatched the Dallas Mavericks to earn the eighth seed in the Western Conference. It was a display of professional pride that had been missing in Memphis over the last couple of months, and an encouraging sign ahead of a first-round meeting with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
That did not last, however, as the Grizzlies were humiliated to open their series in Oklahoma City. In Game 1, the Thunder could have gone scoreless over the last 21 minutes of action and still won. Rather than remind us of the competitive core they have, the Grizzlies instead reminded us of the virtues of a five-game first-round series.
Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and the Grizzlies have their backs firmly against the wall. How they respond, back on home court, sets up a fascinating game.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Can Cover
Perhaps most encouraging for the Oklahoma City Thunder — though they don’t exactly need encouragement, in such a lopsided series — is that they crushed the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 while beating them at their own game.
Memphis led the NBA in pace during the 2024-25 regular season, with an average of 103.3 possessions per 48 minutes. Ever since Ja Morant arrived in Memphis, the team has beaten opponents by running them up and down the floor. And yet, the Thunder ran the Grizzlies ragged in Game 1, with a pace mark of over 120.0.
After exploiting the Grizzlies’ tired legs at home, the Thunder and the silky smooth operation of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can switch gears and slow it down a little to again control the pace on the road.
Not only do the Thunder have a dominant offense to count on, having finished the season third in offensive rating and first over the season’s last 10 games, but they are equipped to exploit the Grizzlies.
With Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to penetrate defenses and finish at the rim, as well as getting to the rim, Memphis is in trouble. Jackson Jr. can’t defend the rim without fouling at the best of times, and pressed in this series, it’ll be even worse.
The Thunder were a top 10 team in paint points during the regular season — not accounting for the flurry of points Gilgeous-Alexander accumulates at the free throw line, too — and they’ll extend that number against a foul-happy Jackson Jr.
Why the Memphis Grizzlies Can Cover
To emphasize the absurdity of the Memphis Grizzlies’ playoff-opening loss in Oklahoma City, it is worth repeating: the Thunder could have gone scoreless over 21 minutes, nearly 44% of the game, and still beaten the Grizzlies in Game 1.
So, that humiliation has seen this line skew further toward Oklahoma City, and widen Memphis’s path to covering at home. It simply cannot, and will not, be as bad as it was to begin the series.
For all the Grizzlies’ faults and off-court questions to answer over the offseason, they aren’t record-breaking losses bad. While they may not be able to upset the Thunder to steal Game 3, back at home, it’s fair to expect a performance closer to the one we saw last Friday against the Mavericks.
That game was Memphis at its best, in this current moment. A balanced offensive performance, aided by good shooting, saw Memphis boast an offensive rating of just under 121.0. The Grizzlies used their size — an advantage they hold over the Thunder — to create second chance points, with an offensive rebound rate of nearly 36%. And, crucially, a turnover-prone time, limited mistakes.
If the Grizzlies can even check two of those boxes — like getting a quality shooting performance and creating second chance points on the glass — they should be able to cover against a vastly superior team. The offseason is looming for Memphis, but if it breaks right back at home on Thursday, it may be able to hold off the inevitable for just a little bit longer.
How to Make Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Picks
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