The Thunder and Pacers lock horns in the NBA Finals this season, and one of these two teams will have the privilege of bringing their respective cities their first-ever NBA championship. Making OKC Thunder vs Pacers predictions has never been easier, and there will be plenty of intensity in Oklahoma City in this game one matchup. The Thunder have gone 2-1 in game ones so far this postseason, with their lone loss coming against the Denver Nuggets in the second round. Across the court, the Pacers are a perfect 3-0 in Game 1s this year and have managed to take a 2-0 series lead in each of their three previous series. Both of these teams fully understand the importance of winning the first game, so let’s dive into the Pacers vs Thunder predictions for game one of the NBA Finals.
Matchup: Thunder vs Pacers Overview
- Teams: Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Thursday, June 5th, 2025
- Time: Tip-off is at 8:30 PM EST or 7:30 PM local time
- Venue: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Thunder vs Pacers Odds
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Indiana Pacers | |
| Moneyline | -450 | +285 |
| Spread | -9.5 (-120) | +9.5 (-120) |
| Total | Over 231.5 (-120) | Under 231.5 (-120) |
The Thunder vs Pacers odds tell a very clear story of what is expected to happen in this matchup, and that is for the Thunder to win by a comfortable margin. It is easy to see why the Thunder are massive home favorites on the NBA odds, as they have been dominant from the opening game of the season, and have gone 12-4 in the playoffs. This is expected to be a high-scoring game, with a total of 231.5 points, thanks to the fast-paced play both teams prefer.
Win Probabilities:
NBA win probabilities are calculated by combining expert predictions with insights from recent games. The Oklahoma City Thunder are heavy favorites to win, with an 82.23% chance of prevailing, according to the NBA win probabilities. The Indiana Pacers have been doubted throughout the playoffs, so their 17.77% chance of winning will not discourage them.
Looking for a detailed breakdown? Check out our full NBA Finals Predictions 2025
Projected Final Score:
The projected final score for this NBA game favors the Oklahoma City Thunder to secure a win on their home court, with a scoreline of Oklahoma City Thunder 123-110 Indiana Pacers.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why the Indiana Pacers Could Win Game One
The Indiana Pacers have gotten off to a fantastic start in each of their first three playoff series, and will need to steal at least one game in Oklahoma City if they hope to win this series. They mounted a huge comeback against the Knicks in game one, capped off by Haliburton’s iconic game-tying shot as time expired. Indiana has demonstrated that no lead is safe with their fast-paced play, and the Pacers will fight hard to take an early lead against the Thunder.
The only way the Pacers can win game one is if they shoot well from behind the arc. They will not beat Gilgeous-Alexander and the towering Thunder frontcourt of Isiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren in a game of two-point shots. Instead, Indiana needs to trust their deep ball and look to isolate the Thunder defenders whenever possible. If they can get Holmgren and Hartenstein caught on an island in the open court, the Pacers have the shooting abilities needed to punish them. The Indiana Pacers will be massive underdogs on the road in this game, but that hasn’t stopped them in the past three series, and it is unlikely to deter them in the 2025 NBA Finals either.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Could Win Game One
The Oklahoma City Thunder have had more than a week off after making quick work of the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. This has allowed them to heal their nagging injuries and get plenty of rest heading into this series. Oklahoma City has put together one of the most dominant seasons of all time so far, and a Game 1 defeat would come as quite a shock. The extra rest will allow the Thunder to match the fast-paced Pacers throughout the 48 minutes, and without that advantage, the Pacers don’t offer much else that can trouble the Thunder.
Oklahoma City will need to avoid complacency heading into game one, as the Pacers thrive when they are overlooked. Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to make an impact on both ends of the court, but it will be Jalen Williams who decides the outcome of this game. Williams has gotten off to a slow start in his first career postseason, but he has the size and talent to take advantage of easy matchups on the outside. The Thunder’s depth is what separates them from the rest of the league, and the extra rest will ensure all five players on the court are throttling ahead at full steam. The Thunder have proven to be one of the most consistent NBA teams this season, and they have what it takes to win Game 1 in a comfortable fashion.
Thunder vs Pacers Predictions
The Oklahoma City Thunder went 35-6 at home in the regular season, while the Indiana Pacers went a measly 20-20 away from home this year. Both of these teams are far better at home, and it’s hard to imagine the Pacers stealing Game 1 from a rested and motivated OKC Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have a massive role to play, and when he outduels Tyrese Haliburton on the perimeter, the Thunder will quickly run away with this game. Oklahoma City will build a 20+ point lead heading into the fourth quarter before the Pacers mount a small comeback. Indiana will ultimately fall short, and taking the Oklahoma City Thunder to win and cover the spread is one of the best OKC Thunder vs Pacers predictions to make.
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 13 points
How to Make Thunder vs Pacers Picks
The best place to make Thunder vs. Pacers picks for Game 1 is on Sportzino. Sportzino offers countless player props in addition to the standard moneyline and spread NBA odds, ensuring that you have all you need to make NBA predictions. Not only that, but Sportzino lets you make Thunder vs Pacers picks for free, making it the clear choice.
