The future and present in the Western Conference will meet on Sunday in Texas, as the Oklahoma City Thunder pay a visit to the San Antonio Spurs.
The Thunder successfully turned a several-year-long rebuild and an accumulation of talent and draft picks into a Western Conference juggernaut. The Thunder are nearly 10 games up on their closest opponent in the conference, and are set up for a comfortable, competitive foreseeable future.
The Spurs are trying to emulate the build that has occurred in Oklahoma City, after 20 years near the top of the NBA hierarchy. San Antonio’s future is, and will be, built around the transcendent talent of Victor Wembanyama — though the sophomore’s season has been cut short and as a result, the Spurs’ future will need to wait a little longer to arrive.
With an NBA League Pass special on the slate this Sunday in Texas, check out our Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for March 2 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Overview
Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
Date: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: AT&T Center
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs is the San Antonio Spurs.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is San Antonio Spurs 100-115 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Just a few short weeks ago, this matchup looked like a potential first round playoff matchup preview. With the Oklahoma City Thunder comfortably atop the Western Conference and all but locked into the first seed, they would await the second winner in the West’s play-in tournament. The San Antonio Spurs, 10th and charging, with the boost of De’Aaron Fox, appeared to be a good candidate to secure the eighth seed.
That result would’ve been an exciting matchup for numerous reasons, including the blossoming rivalry between the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama and the Thunder’s Chet Holmgren.
Sadly, Wemby’s blood clot issue ended his season and with it, in all likelihood, San Antonio’s hopes of getting out of a brutally competitive Western Conference play-in picture.
The foundation of an exciting young rivalry, however, still exists between the Thunder and Spurs. In that sense, despite San Antonio’s fading playoff hopes, this matchup will deliver a lot of intrigue. Oklahoma City has been anointed seemingly league wide, and the Spurs are looking to play spoiler and shake some faith around Boom Town.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Can Cover
Despite the baked in advantages the Cleveland Cavaliers get to enjoy during their amazing season, the Oklahoma City Thunder still boast an average scoring margin of +12.2, a half point higher than those Cavs’ +11.7.
That is to say, roll the ball out onto the gym floor, and the Thunder have a good shot at covering. They are one of the two most relentless, complete, and competitive teams in the NBA this year.
Their path to covering against the San Antonio Spurs, meanwhile, follows a similar trend to one we’ve seen all season — and throughout this reason ascendancy in Oklahoma City.
Despite already having missed double-digit games in the 2024-25 NBA season, the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama leads the league in total blocks by nearly 70, and remains 1.5 blocks per game over the next closest defender in the NBA, the Utah Jazz’s Walker Kessler.
Wemby is not only the league’s best rim protector, but he is the league’s best paint deterrent. His total blocks, per game averages, and block rate would be even higher if the opposition didn’t, frequently, opt against challenging him.
So, needless to say, Wemby’s absence changes everything for San Antonio defensively. That change is happening at the worst possible time, because in the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it is going to face one of the league’s craftiest scorers and a player who excels at creating from the interior.
The Thunder are just 10th in average paint points per game, at 50.2, but that number would be so much higher if they didn’t constantly flank Gilgeous-Alexander with shooters and make it easy for him to kick it out. Though the Spurs are just around league average in points allowed in the paint per game, at 48.3, that number hasn’t even begun to feel the absence of Wembanyama.
It will be an open paint, as far as Gilgeous-Alexander is concerned, and the Spurs will suffer because of it. The MVP candidate is excellent at penetrating defenses and getting to the rim. Once there, he can create for teammates, finish for himself at the basket, or get to the free throw line with ease.
That sort of ability to manufacture good offense, paired with a good system and an excellent two-way team, will make it incredibly hard for the Spurs to keep up — and stop the Thunder from covering, in the process.
Why the San Antonio Spurs Can Cover
There is really just one thing the Oklahoma City Thunder don’t do well, and it’s what the San Antonio Spurs can exploit to keep things close.
The Thunder can be out rebounded on both ends of the floor. They are 26th in team rebound rate, at 48.6%, allow the fourth most rebounds per game, at 54.7, and the eighth-highest offensive rebound rate, at 26.3%.
Those extra possessions and opportunities for the Spurs will give them a chance at scoring second chance points and stay within touching distance. The second part of that, however, is hitting enough shots to punish Oklahoma City for it.
It’s not a coincidence that, in the Spurs’ win over OKC in November, they made 41% of their 46 threes, and helped to make up a talent deficit. With good shooting, and better rebounding, San Antonio can hang around.
How to Make Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Picks
Ready to make picks on the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs matchup on Sunday, March 2? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
