Two of the NBA’s biggest superstars will take the stage on Christmas Day in Texas. Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves will join the pack to face Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks.
Just a short half-year since the Wolves and Mavs met with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, both teams have renewed themselves with maddening inconsistency.
Minnesota, still adjusting from a massive preseason trade involving stalwart Karl-Anthony Towns, has dealt with a season-long fight with identity. After last year’s team was powered by an elite defense, the Wolves have been unable to rediscover that form while struggling on offense as Towns’ production is replaced by Julius Randle.
The Mavs, meanwhile, have much more closely resembled the up-and-down outfit they’ve been the majority of the time under Jason Kidd, as opposed to the team that captured lightning in a bottle following last season’s trade deadline.
Regardless of Minnesota and Dallas’s respective struggles, the Christmas Day matinée is a must-watch clash with two box-office superstars squaring off. Ahead of this game out of Dallas, check out our Timberwolves vs. Mavericks predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for December 25 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Matchup Timberwolves vs Mavericks Overview
- Teams: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Date: Wednesday, December 25, 2024
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Dallas Mavericks is the Dallas Mavericks. The winner probabilities are 60.78% (Dallas Mavericks) and 46.51% (Minnesota Timberwolves).
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Mavericks 116-110 Timberwolves.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Though the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks, in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, had logic rooted in both the near- and long-term, the early returns have been horrendous.
Despite production on the offensive end, Randle has been the worst version of himself. A ball-stopper on offense whose low-post centric operations grind Minnesota’s attempted flowing offense to a halt, he’s failed to integrate.
On defense, he has frequently been slow to react or disinterested in putting in genuine effort. Worse yet, his presence has forced Rudy Gobert to play further away from the rim, limiting one of the NBA’s most impactful defenders.
Then, there’s the DiVincenzo problem. Even the most pessimistic outlooks of the Towns trade had to acknowledge that the former ‘Nova Knick would seamlessly fit into the Wolves’ lineup and add much-needed quick-trigger shooting. So much for that.
A lights-out preseason has been followed by some of the worst play of DiVincenzo’s career. Not only is he shooting in the low 30s from three, but his defense and decision-making have been as appalling as his effort level.
Unsurprisingly, the Timberwolves have regressed to mediocre, with two non-impactful players in place of Towns. Despite an all-universe talent in Anthony Edwards and a regular-season wins monster in Gobert, Minnesota’s barely a positive in adjusted net rating and is downright average in both adjusted offensive and defensive rating.
Now, they have to face a team – and superstar, in Luka Doncic – that’s proven to be a bogey team. Despite early struggles of their own, the Mavs breezed by the Wolves in their first matchup this year with a 120-114 road win.
That result came on the heels of last year’s Western Conference Finals, in which Doncic tormented Gobert, the Wolves’ defense, and Minnesota fans. Feasting against Gobert in drop coverage, Doncic averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 boards, and 8.2 assists and repeatedly tore the Wolves’ hearts out. Luka’s ability to exploit Gobert in drop coverage has been, and will continue to be, a sustainable route to success for the Mavs against the Wolves.
Having that formula to fall back on could be crucial for Dallas, as it’s been an inconsistent outfit so far this year. Early in the season, it appeared the Mavs had recaptured a strong defense to pair with the elite offense Doncic can power. However, they have suffered as the season has deepened.
The Mavericks’ defensive rating has slipped as Klay Thompson’s early-season defensive intensity has lessened. With only a couple of other wingstoppers to depend on—including PJ Washington and Naji Marshall—Dallas is prone to being undone by opposing stars. Its saving grace is Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and those two can help their team outscore anyone.
That reality could become wildly apparent in a matchup with the Timberwolves, who can uncover decent offense in spurts when shots are falling and the ball is moving. Though those two characteristics have rarely been seen, Minnesota has another lever on offense to pull in this sort of spot: Anthony Edwards.
From his second season, when he made his playoff debut, Edwards has proven to rise to the occasion. He’s been a consistently strong postseason performer and routinely takes on the challenge against the league’s other elite talents. That was even prevalent previously against the Mavs, in which Edwards and running mate Jaden McDaniels suffocated Doncic and Irving on a final possession to win after Irving arrived from Brooklyn.
Though Edwards’ big-game ability and the Wolves’ deep rotation should enable Minnesota to remain competitive against the Mavs on Christmas, there’s been little evidence to suggest they can slow Doncic down on the other end.
Luka revels in the moment and seems to take a particular kind of joy in tormenting Gobert. A national TV game on Christmas is quite the spotlight, and it’s one Doncic will no doubt take center stage in to guide the Mavericks to yet another win over Edwards and the Timberwolves.
Current Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Timberwolves | +115 | +3 (-115) | O228.5 (-115) |
| Mavericks | -155 | -3 (-115) | U228.5 (-115) |
How to Make Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks
Ready to make picks on the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks matchup on Wednesday, December 25? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend and so much more!
