This is the first game from the First Four lineup, and sees two 16th seeded teams going head-to-head to face Michigan in the first round proper. Both teams are on fantastic runs of form, with Howard and UMBC on 8 and 12 game winning streaks, respectively.
Matchup: Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Overview
- 6:40 pm ET tipoff at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio
- Howard Bison: 16th seed, 23-10 record
- UMBC Retrievers: 16th seed, 24-8 record
- UMBC has a strong defense with low fouls per game
- Howard ranked 10th for forced turnovers, UMBC ranked 297th
Win Probabilities
| Team | Win Probability |
| Howard Bison | 44% |
| UMBC Retrievers | 56% |
Both teams are extremely closely ranked, currently. The NET ranking for both teams is 196 for UMBC and 203 for Howard. The minor difference between the two teams gives UMBC a slight advantage, but it goes beyond this when creating March Madness odds and lines.
Both teams are on lengthy winning runs, with Howard Bison winning 8 in a row, but UMBC outdoing them with a 12 game run. As a result of these factors, and sports news confirming neither team has any injury troubles, UMBC has the advantage with a 56% chance of winning.
Projected Final Score
As neither team has any injury issues, there shouldn’t be anything that impacts the match beyond each team’s potential. What makes this a difficult basketball prediction, is that each team’s strengths nullify the other to some degree. For example, Howard is good at forcing turnovers, but UMBC are good at protecting possession of the ball.
UMBC are extremely fast, particularly in defensive transitions, while Howard Bison tend to play at a slower pace. Howard also struggles with turnovers, but as UMBC are low for forced turnovers, this shouldn’t be too much of a problem.
Taking all of this into account means most NCAAB odds and lines suggest a 75-70 win for UMBC.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Although it’s likely to be a tight matchup, UMBC has the edge between the two teams. They’re on a better run, and have a marginally better NET ranking, giving them the advantage. While Howard Bison have enough quality to compete, and certainly have a chance of winning, UMBC are the favorites.
Why Howard Bison Can Win
Howard Bison come into the game on a strong winning run. They have a strong winning record when limiting teams on the 3 point line, going 18-2 when teams hit fewer than 7 in a game.
Howard also slightly edges out UMBC in recent head-to-head games, with a 2-1 record, beating out UMBC in all key stats apart from 3 point shooting.
Why UMBC Retrievers Can Win
Despite the good run that Howard is on, UMBC are on a better one. They’re currently on a 12 game winning streak, and have a better overall record for the season. Most basketball odds and lines have UMBC as the favorites, so they’re expected to grab the win here.
Of course, their strong defense, specifically around the 3 point line should have a big impact on their chances of success.
Current Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Game Outlook
Both teams are fully healthy and are in excellent form. Looking from the outside in, both teams have hit a good run just in time for the March Madness tournament. Currently, UMBC is the slight favorite, but the lines are so tight that Howard Bison are still in with a good chance of winning.
How to Make Your Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Picks
Making your picks for the game requires a few simple steps to enhance your knowledge. It’s vital to check the injury records, current form, and head-to-head records. Using these stats will allow you to make an informed prediction, which focuses more on likely outcomes than gut instincts.
Howard Bison Recent Trends
- Last 5 games: W-W-W-W-W
- ATS: 21-8
- ATS Home/Away: 8-3/9-4
- Howard Bison have scored 70+ points in all of their last 10 games
Howard Bison Recent Stats
| Category | Value |
| Points Per Game | 90.1 |
| Opponent PPG | 65.2 |
| FG% | 49.53 |
Howard Bison Leaders
- Points: Bryce Harris (17.1)
- Rebounds: Bryce Harris (6.9)
- Assists: Cam Gillus (4.6)
Howard Bison Player Performance Projections
Bryce Harris is the player who will be key in this game. He’ll be expected to dominate in points and rebounds, and if he performs well it could decide the result.
UMBC Retrievers Recent Trends
- Last 5 games: W-W-W-W-W
- ATS: 19-11
- ATS Home/Away: 9-6/10-5
- UMBC have scored 66+ points in all of their last 10 games
UMBC Recent Stats
| Category | Value |
| Points Per Game | 79.8 |
| Opponent PPG | 61.6 |
| FG% | 48.2 |
UMBC Leaders
- Points: Jah’Likai King (13.9)
- Rebounds: Jose Roberto Tanchyn (5.7)
- Assists: Ace Valentine (4.0)
UMBC Player Performance Projections
As UMBC’s player stats are spread out across more players, they’re not as reliant on a single player. It means they’re more likely to have a positive performance if one of their stat leaders has an off day.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
Turnovers are the key factor that will decide this game. If Howard can force turnovers at their usual rate, they could take advantage of the UMBC weakness in this area. However, with UMBC comfortable with protecting possession, it’s an intriguing tactical battle.
Final Prediction Summary
UMBC are most likely to win this game, with a projected 75-70. Their current fantastic run of form and better overall roster strength should see them claim the win.
UP NEXT: SMU vs. Miami Ohio Prediction
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