The Tigers are the 2nd seed, and the Blue Devils are the 3rd seed, so this should be a close matchup. Both teams have similar records, although the LSU Tigers slightly edge it. It makes it the favorites going into this Sweet 16 round.
Matchup: LSU Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils Overview
- 10:00 pm ET tipoff at the Golden One Center in Sacramento, California
- LSU Tigers: 2nd seed, 29-5 record
- Duke Blue Devils: 3rd seed, 26-8 record
- LSU Tigers score 94.5 ppg
- Duke Blue Devils lead in blocks
Win Probabilities
| Team | Win Probability |
|---|---|
| LSU Tigers | 53% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 47% |
Even with close stats going into the Sweet 16 round, the NCAAB women odds and lines point to the LSU Tigers being the slight favorites. Both teams are in the top 10 of the NET rankings, with LSU 5th and Duke 8th. It should be a good matchup between two schools aiming for the Elite Eight.
Neither team is on a huge winning streak, with LSU winning its last 2 and Duke winning its last 5. What makes this such an interesting matchup is that LSU has only lost 5 all season, while Duke has lost only 2 since December, but 8 overall.
It evens the odds for each team and should make this a game that can go either way. As a result of this, there’s just a 6% differential between the chances of winning for each team.
Projected Final Score
There aren’t any injury worries for the Tigers or Blue Devils, which helps when going into the Sweet 16. As both teams are close in terms of stats, it requires analysis to work out a likely final score.
Duke will have slightly more confidence, as its winning streak is longer, but LSU has won more games this season. However, a big difference between the teams is scoring, with LSU hitting 94.5 PPG, and Duke 74.1.
As most March Madness odds and lines have LSU as favorites, an 82-76 final score looks likely.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
There are a lot of areas that could go either way in this matchup. LSU is a bigger scorer, averaging 94.5 PPG, but Duke is on a better run of form, having lost only 2 since December. As March Madness is a one-and-done tournament, this momentum could lead to a minor upset for Duke, but LSU is still the favorite.
Why the LSU Tigers Can Win
LSU has a better NET ranking and has won more games this season. On top of this, it scores more points than Duke. This makes LSU the favorite at most sports news sites.
The LSU Tigers are also ahead in most stats, from rebounds to assists, meaning the underlying data expects an LSU win.
Why Duke Blue Devils Can Win
The current winning run for Duke should give it more confidence going into the Sweet 16. While it won’t be a major upset, it would still be an impressive win.
Current LSU Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils Game Outlook
March Madness is a one-and-done event, so upsets are more likely than in the NBA playoffs. LSU Tigers are the favorite for many basketball predictions, but Duke is still a high-performing team, and could pull the win out of the bag.
The high-scoring nature of the Tigers, with multiple active high scorers, gives LSU the edge. However, this is one of the closest games in the Sweet 16.
How to Make Your LSU Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils Picks
Checking stats and data and cross-referencing them with basketball odds and lines is the best way to make predictions. On top of this, it’s vital to research current injuries and momentum before making your picks. While these aren’t as impactful as data, they can still affect a game’s outcome.
LSU Tigers Recent Trends
- Last 5 games: W-W-L-W-W
- Season stats: 29-5
- LSU has scored over 100 points in 3 of its last 5 games
LSU Tigers Recent Stats
| Category | Value |
| Points Per Game | 94.5 |
| Opponent PPG | 65.8 |
| FG% | 50.5 |
LSU Tigers Leaders
- Points: Flau’jae Johnson (14.3)
- Rebounds: Amiya Joiner (7.5)
- Assists: Mikaylah Williams (3.7)
LSU Tigers Player Performance Projections
What’s so impressive about this LSU Tigers roster is how strong it is. It’s not a 1 player team, and there are 3 players on 14 or more PPG. That strength in depth is what makes LSU the favorite.
Duke Blue Devils Recent Trends
- Last 5 games: W-W-W-W-W
- Season Stats: 26-8
- Scored fewer than 70 points in 4 of the last 5 games
Duke Blue Devils Recent Stats
| Category | Value |
| Points Per Game | 74.1 |
| Opponent PPG | 56.8 |
| FG% | 44.0 |
Duke Blue Devils Leaders
- Points: Toby Fournier (17.4)
- Rebounds: Toby Fournier (8.0)
- Assists: Taina Mair (5.6)
Duke Blue Devils Player Performance Projections
Toby Fournier is the main player for the Duke Blue Devils, and she is scoring higher than any player on the LSU roster. While she could lead the Blue Devils to a win, she could be targeted to limit its effectiveness.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
As we mentioned in the previous section, Toby Fournier is key to this game. If she is able to play to her level, then she could lead the Blue Devils to an upset. However, as the Tigers rely more on teamwork, that could be a deciding factor. It doesn’t matter if Flau’jae Johnson has an off night; Amiya Joiner is there to back her up.
Final Prediction Summary
The Tigers look most likely to win this matchup, but the gap between the two teams isn’t huge, so the Blue Devils could potentially cause an upset.
Share on 
