The 2025/26 College Football Playoff will get underway this weekend, and while some matchups loom as grossly lopsided, that is not the case in Norman.
The Alabama Crimson Tide, the SEC runner-up, will hit the road to take on the Oklahoma Sooners. Just over a month on from their last meeting, a 23-21 Oklahoma victory, it serves as a rematch with much more enticing stakes as the 12-team playoff begins in earnest.
With a trip to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals on the line at Memorial Stadium on Friday night, check out our Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners predictions, including our college football expert picks, with kickoff set for December 19 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma Sooners Overview
Teams: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Date: Friday, December 19, 2025
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: OU Memorial Stadium
Win Probabilities
The college football win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent college football games in combination with expert college football picks and predictions. The Alabama Crimson Tide have been given a 55.6% chance to win this college football game. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma Sooners have a 44.4% chance according to the college football win probabilities.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the College Football Playoff, but for the Alabama Crimson Tide to prevail with a final score of Alabama Crimson Tide 24-20 Oklahoma Sooners.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Though it was at least partially self created, with an end of half missed field goal the most damming error, it was just a few weeks ago the Alabama Crimson Tide were upset in Tuscaloosa by the Oklahoma Sooners. Now, with higher stakes and brighter lights, the Tide are headed on the road and looking for a little revenge.
Oklahoma, and its stellar defense, has proved its bona fides all season, but there was perhaps no greater example than its showing in Tuscaloosa. At the time, the Crimson Tide were ranked No. 4 in the nation and positioned to contend for a College Football Playoff bye. Instead, a sloppy performance opened the door for the Georgia Bulldogs and damned Alabama to the long road as a result.
As these two teams showed in their first meeting, the similarities between them are rich. As it did in November in Tuscaloosa, it sets up a fascinating battle of similar styles. We break down a highly enticing matchup below.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide Can Cover
In the wake of its underwhelming loss to the Sooners in November, it was tricky to get a read on this Alabama team.
It unleashed frustration on Eastern Illinois the following week, in a 56-0 demolition. Cathartic, sure, but not exactly informative. A 27-20 win in the Iron Bowl against hated rivals Auburn at least spoke to a level of toughness in the Tide — but amid a terrible season for the Tigers, it wasn’t a stellar showing for ‘Bama. Then, the Tide was blown away by the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC title game, further proving they are not in the upper echelon of college football this season.
Yet, thanks to a classically tremendous secondary and a quarterback in Ty Simpson who can lead timely drives, Alabama remains a competitive outfit. The Crimson Tide’s defense has been their strength all year long, but without an effective pass rush, the notion of bend don’t break has failed them repeatedly.
Whether it’s through simulated pressures, additional blitzes, or just an advantageous matchup, the Crimson Tide’s hope of covering and winning on Friday will come down to whether they can get to the quarterback or not.
Why the Oklahoma Sooners Can Cover
While Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is, in theory, the equalizer in an otherwise average team, the Oklahoma Sooners can negate his impact. The Sooners are equipped with one of the best pass rushes in the country, and if they can consistently create pressure to rush Simpson, then the Tide’s ability to score enough comes heavily into question.
Last month in Tuscaloosa, Simpson did all he could to try and drag Alabama across the line, throwing for 326 yards on just under eight yards per attempt, but Oklahoma was able to affect him enough that he was limited to just one score and a turnover. On that same day, the Sooners got to Simpson for four sacks and added another five tackles for loss, with their ability to create havoc defensively on full display.
While that performance comes with the key caveat, that a pick six was ultimately what helped guide the Sooners to victory, it shows the game-breaking ability of their defense — something the Crimson Tide can’t match. While there are worthwhile and genuine questions around the weakness of Oklahoma’s offense, the question of how it can cover comes down to a simple notion. In a game with four units doing battle, only one of the four stands out as elite. If the Sooners are to cover, it’s because of an elite defense that led them to the College Football Playoff in the first place.
Current Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -125 | -105 | -115 |
| Oklahoma Sooners | -115 | -135 | -125 |
How to Make Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners Picks
Ready to make picks on the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners matchup on Friday, December 19? Make sure to head over to Sportzino.com, where you can find every College Football game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
