March Madness has a reputation for providing wild upsets, exciting matchups, and crazy outcomes. But is this just a public perception, or is it truly real? Here at Sportzino, we’ve closely examined the top trends to look out for and whether you should take notice of them. So, if you want to find the best NCAA tournament trends, stick with us to learn more!
What March Madness Trends Are Real?
Plenty of real March Madness trends exist, but placing them into context is essential. For example, a trend that takes place 60% of the time is much more valuable than one that takes place 35% of the time. We’ve delved into March Madness historical trends to determine which ones have the best value for viewers making predictions.
We offer a fantastic choice of College Basketball predictions, so anyone looking to use their new NCAA knowledge can make their picks at Sportzino.
10 Best March Madness Trends in 2024
Players looking for the best trends can find them with our list. Get ready for the top 10 March Madness trends to know.
- Seed #7 Upsetting Seed #10
In terms of regularity, this is the most common March Madness upset trend. At 38.8% of the time, it’s well worth keeping an eye on these games. The #6 being upset by the #11 is exceptionally close to this trend, with 38.1%, so there are two options with good potential for an upset.
- The #1 Seeds are Almost Guaranteed to Win in the First Round
There are no guarantees in sports, but the #1 seed winning their first-round match is as close as possible. Only twice in the NCAA tournament history have the #16 won their match against the #1 seed. So, when looking for banker predictions, these games come the closest. Just remember, even though an upset is extremely unlikely, it doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
- There’s an 85% Chance of #1 Seeds Making the Third Round
There’s an 86% chance of #1 seeds winning in their second-round match. With a 99% chance of them making it through their first-round matches, it adds up to 85% that they will be in the third round. So, players looking for teams with a high chance of grabbing at least two wins can find it with #1 seeds. It makes sense for this to be the case because they’re the top picks for a reason.
- The First Four Provides Regular Upsets
After introducing the First Four in 2011, there’s only been one year when there wasn’t an upset from one of the First Four teams. In 2021, one of the first four made it to the final four, which is an incredible achievement. So, when looking for multiple wins, a First Four team is a statistically sensible selection. Keep this in mind when making picks.
- Look at Seeds When Picking the Final Four
The stats show that a #1 seed makes the final four 39% of the time. As a result, statistically, at least one of the teams in the final four will be a #1 seed. Of course, this doesn’t mean it will be the case practically. For example, two teams could be #1 seeds one year, and then the following year, no teams in the final four will be #1 seeds, and it would provide the same stats.
- For a 50/50 Chance Look at #8 vs #9
While it’s not an exact 50/50 split, it’s extremely close. In these games, the #9 seed has won 51.3% of the time, giving the #8 seed a 48.7% win rate. It makes it the perfect pick for anyone who enjoys picking random games.
- The #9 Seed Doesn’t Do Well After Round One
Although the #9 seed wins just over 50% of its first-round games, this drops off significantly in round two. It has a less than 10% win percentage in the second round, a significant fall from the 21% win rate #8 seeds have in the second round. There’s a lot of confusion around why #8 picks are twice as successful in the round of 32, as statistically, it doesn’t correlate with the round of 64 numbers. So, if picking a #9 seed to win in the first round, it’s best to avoid it as a second-round pick.
- #13, #14, #15, and #16 Seeds are the Cut Off Point
Although there are many upsets in the first round, the chances fall off in the #13 seed and below. #12 and above have an over 38% chance of an upset, and it drops to 21% for #13. It only gets worse the lower down it goes. #14 sits at 14.5%, #15 is 7.2%, and #16 is just 1.3%. As a result, it is best to avoid these picks as they’re extremely unlikely.
- Some Teams Just Can’t Catch a Break
Boise State, Belmont, Eastern Kentucky, and Nebraska have never won a tournament game. While there’s always a time for streaks to be broken, statistically, these four teams are the worst possible picks.
- Look Closely at Matt Painter
It’s not always about the players and teams. Sometimes it’s about the coaches. Matt Painter has the best round of 64-win percentage of any coach. Winning 73.3% of his first-round matches, Painter is among the best March Madness trends to watch. He will especially want to return to winning ways after crashing out in the first round during his last time out.
March Madness Trends That You Should Avoid
There’s no specific trend to avoid, but players must look at the NCAA tournament historical trends to find the right picks. For example, seed 16, beating seed 1, has a less than 2% success rate. In this situation, making this pick is statistically unlikely. So, it all depends on the likely success rate when making selections.
Another difficult prediction is March Madness champion trends. Although certain schools generally tend to have better players due to the quality of their programs, there’s also no guarantee it will work out this way each year. College Basketball is much more competitive than the NBA, which is part of what makes it so exciting and fun to watch. When making champion picks, don’t look at historical trends. Look at the roster; that’s where the best information is available.
| Winner | Year |
| Louisville* | 2013 |
| UConn | 2014 |
| Duke | 2015 |
| Villanova | 2016 |
| North Carolina | 2017 |
| Villanova | 2018 |
| Virginia | 2019 |
| Baylor | 2021 |
| Kansas | 2022 |
| UConn | 2023 |
The asterisk next to Louisville is due to the result being stricken from the record due to a rules violation. As the table shows, there have been eight different winners in the last ten years, with no team winning the tournament two years in a row. So, March Madness tournament trends don’t have an impact when it comes to predicting the winner.
No. 5 Vs. No. 12 Seeds
Possibly the most famous trend when it comes to March Madness. There’s a reason we didn’t put it on our top-10 list. The #5 vs #12 games always provide excitement, and a solid trend exists between upsets. Currently, 34.2% of the time, the #12 creates an upset. The 2023 results dropped the percentage from 34.87% as all four #5 seeds came out on top.
How Sportsbooks Treat March Madness Trends?
It depends on the trend. If the trend is based on numbers and statistics, then the sportsbook considers it. However, if the trend is superstitious, they don’t see it as worth looking at. That’s why you should only take notice of trends with a basis in facts. It doesn’t mean a superstitious trend won’t come true. It just means it doesn’t have a statistical basis for that.
