The Phillies and Reds are both in the middle of winning seasons, but that doesn’t mean it’s a tough choice for a likely winner. The Phillies are in much better form and go into this game as the favourites. It’s a three-game series, taking place on July 4th, 5th, and 6th. They begin at 1:05 PM, 4:05 PM, and 1:35 PM, respectively.
Match Preview
The form is a strange one between these two teams. The Phillies are the better team overall for the season, but the Reds have been stronger over the last 10 games. The Phillies have a 5-5 record, while the Reds are at 6-4. However, the Phillies are top of the standings in the National League East, while the Reds are fourth in the National League Central.
The Phillies also have a home-field advantage, which will impact the MLB odds. Their fans will get behind them strongly, which should motivate them to deliver a good performance against the Reds.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head stats of the two teams are challenging to read. There have been 2,137 games between them, including regular season and playoffs. The Phillies have a slightly worse record, having won 973 games. It means they have a 45.9% win rate. The postseason record between the teams is even, so it doesn’t affect the overall statistics.
In recent years, the Phillies have had the upper hand, boasting a positive record against the Reds in four of the last six years. However, the Reds did have a positive record the previous year, which could have a psychological impact on the games this season.
Key Stats & Facts
The Reds have a significant advantage when it comes to players on the mound. Andrew Abbott is their starting pitcher, and his ERA is a phenomenal 1.79. He’s significantly below the ERA for the team as a whole, which stands at 3.93.
Despite this impressive ERA from the Reds’ starting pitcher, the Phillies have a weapon of their own. Jesus Luzardo has a higher ERA, at 4.06, but has a reputation for striking batters out. It’s something that should impact the game, as the Reds have notoriously struggled with aggressive pitching this season.
The Phillies have also won 65.7% of the games where they have been the favorite. As they enter this game, expected to win, it means they have a good chance of walking away as the winners. However, Abbott is the wild card here, and he could lead the Reds to a surprise victory.
check out our full White Sox vs Rockies Prediction analysis
Predicted Lineups
The baseball odds for this game will be impacted by the lineups. Although it’s not possible to tell who will definitely start at this point, we can use the starting lineups from previous games to take an educated guess. The Phillies currently have only Aaron Nola injured after Bryce Harper made a strong return to the roster. It’s a much worse situation for the Reds, who have a long list of missing players. Some of the biggest injuries include: Wade Miley, Rhett Lowder, and Carson Spiers.
Phillies Likely Lineup
- Trea Turner (R) SS
- Kyle Schwarber (L) DH
- Bryce Harper (L) 1B
- Nick Castellanos (R) RF
- Max Kepler (L) LF
- J.T. Realmuto (R) C
- Bryson Stott (L) 2B
- Edmundo Sosa (R) 3B
- Johan Rojas (R) CF
Reds Likely Lineup
- Jarren Duran (L) LF
- Roman Anthony (L) DH
- Abraham Toro (S) 1B
- Carlos Narváez (R) C
- Wilyer Abreu (L) RF
- Trevor Story (R) SS
- Marcelo Mayer (L) 3B
- David Hamilton (L) 2B
- Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF
There’s no guarantee that these will be the lineups, as anything can happen between now and the first pitch.
Prediction Tips & Score Prediction
The Phillies are the most likely winners in this game. They’re aiming to finish top of the National League East, and there are only two games between them and the Mets. With the Phillies being the better performing team and being at home, it makes them the most likely to win.
A fun prediction is that the game will have over 8.5 runs. We expect it to be a tight game, so a 5-4 win for the Phillies wouldn’t be a surprise. However, going for over 8.5 runs means that you can make a similar pick, without losing out if the Reds manage to swing it in their favor.
With it likely to be a close game, aiming for the scoreline is a pick we would look to avoid.
Final Thoughts
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