The Cardinals and Cubs will be playing each other on the 4th, 5th, and 6th of July. The first and second games start at 2:20 PM, and the third is at 5:10 PM. The Cubs are dominating the National League Central, so many people are expecting them to come out of this game with a win. We’ve analyzed the stats to see what the likely outcomes are.
Match Preview
These games will be contests between two teams that are competing well. Most St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs predictions will see the Cubs coming out on top. However, the Cardinals are a good team and should put up a strong challenge. The Cubs are currently top of the National League Central and will want to retain their position there. While they’re not as dominant as the Dodgers, they are still having a strong season.
The Cardinals are third in the same conference and will want to try to climb up the table. However, the Cubs have home field advantage as the game is at Wrigley Field. With the Cubs having a good season, it’s likely that the crowd will have a positive impact. The Cubs have a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, and the Cardinals have a 5-5 record. So, they’re on relatively similar runs of form.
Head-to-Head
Although using long-term historical data for a Cardinals vs Cubs prediction won’t be too helpful in isolation, recent history can provide useful stats and context. For example, in the history of the rivalry between the two teams, the Cubs have won 51% of games. It’s a minor advantage that doesn’t tell us too much. However, in 2025, the two teams have played 4 games and won 2 each. It shows that currently, the dynamic between the two teams is close to their historical connection.
With the Cubs currently having a better season, MLB odds will likely have them as the favorites. This information comes despite the two teams being very close in both recent and distant history.
check out our full Phillies vs Reds Predictions analysis
Key Stats & Facts
The Cardinals will likely have Miles Mikolas starting on the mound. He has an ERA of 4.76 this season, and it remains almost the same at 4.70 when playing on the road. There are mixed stats for games where Mikolas has started. They have an 8-8 overall record with him as a starting pitcher. However, in the last 11 games they have played with him first up, they have won 8. It shows that they have started slowly and built up.
The stats for the Cubs’ starting pitcher are similar. They will likely use Colin Rea first. His ERA is 4.37 this season, but is weaker when at Wrigley Field, at 4.53. However, their record with Rea first up on the mound is much healthier. They’re 6-3 when he throws first, and will hope to continue that trend.
Predicted Lineups
The baseball odds for this game will likely hinge on the starting lineups. If either team has significant injuries, it will likely impact their performance. The Cubs currently only have Jameson Taillon and Eli Morgan with serious injuries. For the Cardinals, Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera are their biggest losses. As a result, both teams will likely have strong rosters available for the game.
Chicago Cubs Likely Lineup
- Ian Happ (S) LF
- Kyle Tucker (L) DH
- Seiya Suzuki (R) RF
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) CF
- Dansby Swanson (R) SS
- Nico Hoerner (R) 2B
- Michael Busch (L) 1B
- Matt Shaw (R) 3B
- Reese McGuire (L) C
St Louis Cardinals Likely Lineup
- Brendan Donovan (L) 2B
- Masyn Winn (R) SS
- Alec Burleson (L) 1B
- Nolan Gorman (L) DH
- Lars Nootbaar (L) LF
- Thomas Saggese (R) 3B
- José Fermín (R) RF
- Pedro Pagés (R) C
- Victor Scott II (L) CF
Tips & Score Prediction
The Cubs are the most likely winners for this game. They have a slightly better record over the last 10 games, are looking to cement their position at the top of the standings, and have home field advantage. While the Cardinals are a good team, they’re unlikely to have enough to get past the Cubs.
Other predictions are difficult to pick. The Cardinals aren’t likely to beat the spread, so that’s a pick to avoid. However, if you can find a run total over 10.5, then that pick has a good chance of coming in. The Cubs will want to make a statement, especially as the Cardinals aren’t too far behind them.
Final Thoughts
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