The Red Sox and Nationals will play a three-game series from July 4th to 6th. The first game is scheduled for 11:05 a.m. ET, the second for 4:05 p.m. ET, and the final match for 1:35 p.m. ET. With both teams on similar runs of form, predicting the outcome of this series is challenging. We’ve analyzed the facts and figures to work out where your picks should lie.
Match Preview
The Red Sox have a slightly better record this season compared to the Nationals, but both teams are struggling in their respective leagues. It means that you will get better MLB odds on a Nationals win, but the Red Sox are slightly more likely to win. However, both teams have a 3-2 winning record in their last five games, so it could go either way.
Lucas Giolito and Michael Soroka should be the starting pitchers, and Giolito is in better form this season. However, that’s evened out by the Nationals having home-field advantage.
Head-to-Head
Historically, the Red Sox are significantly ahead of the Nationals. Of the 37 matchups since 1997, the Red Sox have won 27. However, there are some mitigating factors that make it less clear-cut than this appears. Firstly, the Red Sox aren’t as dominant when they’re on the road. Away from home, they have a 60% win rate, which is significantly below their 73% win rate at home.
With this game taking place at the Nationals’ stadium, it makes it a much closer encounter.
Key Stats & Facts
The most pertinent stat that comes into play relates to Lucas Giolito. While he has a lower ERA than Soroka this season, he becomes even more impressive when playing on the road. His ERA is at 3.99 for the season, but when on the road, it drops to 2.15. It’s a much better ERA than Soroka’s 4.70.
The Nationals sit at the bottom of the National League East, with a record of 36/50. The Red Sox are one from the bottom in the American League East, and their record is slightly better at 43/45. Despite this, both teams have losing records and will want to try to turn things around.
Soroka has a slightly better ERA when pitching at home, but at 3.91, he’s still comfortably behind Giolito’s impressive performance on the road. Both men will be looking to give their best performances so that they can help to turn around their team’s season.
Predicted Lineups
Both teams have injuries currently. It will impact the baseball odds for the game, as a depleted roster can change the result. Currently, the Red Sox are missing Luis Guerrero, Hunter Dobbins, Liam Hendriks, Mark Kolozsvary, and Tanner Houck.
The Nationals are without Orlando Ribalta, Jarlin Susana, Keibert Ruiz, Michael Thompson, and Andrew Chafin. It’s a substantial injury list for both teams, so while each team will feel the loss, it doesn’t give an advantage to either one.
While there’s no guarantee of the lineups, the two teams are expected to start like this:
Red Sox
- Jarren Duran (L) LF
- Roman Anthony (L) DH
- Abraham Toro (S) 1B
- Carlos Narváez (R) C
- Wilyer Abreu (L) RF
- Trevor Story (R) SS
- Marcelo Mayer (L) 3B
- David Hamilton (L) 2B
- Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF
Nationals
- CJ Abrams (L) SS
- James Wood (L) LF
- Amed Rosario (R) 2B
- Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B
- Alex Call (R) RF
- Paul DeJong (R) DH
- Brady House (R) 3B
- Riley Adams (R) C
- Jacob Young (R) CF
Of course, things can change between now and game day, and with it being a three-game series, there could be different lineups for each game. However, these are the most likely teams to start the game.
Prediction Tips & Score Prediction
The Red Sox are the most likely winner going into the first game of the series. While both teams have equal form over the last five games, the Red Sox have a better head-to-head record and are performing better overall throughout the season. Another factor that sees the Sox edging it is the performance of Giolito on the road. His ERA takes a significant boost when he is away from home, which could be due to the less pressure from home fans. It’s this that makes the Red Sox the favorites.
However, there’s every chance that the Nationals could beat the spread. If you still want to pick the Nationals as a winner, then the spread is your best option. You’ll get better odds, allowing you to make a more informed prediction about the game.
Final Thoughts
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