For the first time since the 2016 postseason, an NBA Finals that defied basketball odds and took Lebron James’ legacy to a new level, we’ll get a Game 7 to decide this year’s champion.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, up 3-2, failed to close out the Indiana Pacers on Thursday night despite entering Indy with one hand on the trophy. Now, they must again try to top off a season that has seen them as the NBA odds favorite in sportsbook after sportsbook, on their home floor, with the pressure ramped up even further.
The Pacers, meanwhile, will enter with house money after a blowout win in Game 6 helped to extend the series. This postseason has seen a miracle after miracle for the Pacers, and to win on Sunday night on the road would be to top off one of the most spectacular playoff runs in recent history.
With the Larry O’Brien Trophy on the line this Sunday night in Oklahoma, check out our Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder predictions, including our NBA Finals Predictions 2025, with tip set for June 22 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Overview
Teams: Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Date: Sunday, June 22, 2025
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Paycom Center
Win Probabilities
The NBA win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NBA games, combined with expert NBA picks and predictions. The Indiana Pacers are riding a blowout in Game 6, but have been given the short end of the stick with a chance to win this NBA game. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder have another opportunity to close out the series, according to the NBA win probabilities.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the Cowboy State, but for the Oklahoma City Thunder to prevail with a final score of Oklahoma City Thunder 108-104 Indiana Pacers.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
As the magnitude of the Indiana Pacers’ Game 6 win began to set in on Thursday night, a lot of attention, naturally, turned to the looming Game 7. Within that attention were plenty of questions around the lasting effect of Game 6 — would it give Indiana this massive confidence boost, and would it impact the Oklahoma City Thunder’s ability to defend the home floor?
While those were reasonable questions, it seems clear that momentum just hasn’t factored into this series across games.
A last-second winner that gave the Pacers Game 1 was followed by a Thunder blowout win in Game 2. A decisive victory for Indiana on its home floor in Game 3 was followed by one of the more confident games from Oklahoma City in Game 4. And, after taking a gut punch in Game 5, the Pacers bounced back to demolish the Thunder in Game 6.
It’s a clean slate, and that leaves us with an incredibly exciting proposition: a one off game to decide this year’s NBA championship. Strap in.
Why the Indiana Pacers Could Win Game 7
The Pacers have, even in the bigger losses, played the Thunder so tightly during these Finals. The Thunder are the best team in the NBA, and often, even an opponent’s best punch isn’t enough. Yet, Indiana has hung around repeatedly, and it opens up a path for it to cover and potentially win.
If the Pacers can continue to get effective play throughout their rotation, then an improved output from either Tyrese Haliburton or Myles Turner would be enough to help push them over the edge.
Though Haliburton is playing through a calf injury and impacts the game in countless subtle ways, he’s failed to make an impact as a scorer on the road. In three games in Oklahoma City, Haliburton is averaging 6.0 points — having put up six in each of the three games. To even inch toward his playoff average of 17.7 points per game on Sunday would be to give his offense a tremendous boost.
The same goes for Turner, who wasn’t able to break out of his slump even in the Indiana avalanche on Thursday night. The big man is having a nightmare Finals offensively, but to creep back toward double-digit scoring — which he has done in three games this series — after a three-point effort in Game 6 would make a considerable difference.
To cover, and potentially win, the Pacers need every part of their rotation to chip in on the scoreboard.
check out our full NBA Finals Game 6 Predictions analysis
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Could Win Game 7
In their crushing Game 6 loss, everything that could go wrong for the Thunder, from a game script perspective, did.
This Thunder team consistently crushed everyone in scoring margin all season long because they were able to win the possession game by such a significant amount so consistently. They feast off turnovers and take great care of the ball on offense. Not so much in Game 6, in which Oklahoma City turned the ball over 21 times, while the Pacers managed to turn it over just 11 times.
Not for the first time during the NBA Finals, the Thunder’s offense lost a key dimension as the three ball disappeared. They took 30 threes in Game 6, but knocked down just eight. Even with Indiana not being a heavy volume three point team, the Thunder’s continued struggles from distance are a huge hindrance.
And, finally, the Thunder’s role players were roundly outplayed. While Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, and Cason Wallace combined for seven points total, Indiana got 20 points from Obi Toppin and another 12 from T.J. McConnell. Even with a couple of no-shows within Indiana’s rotation, that helped swing it in its favor.
Game 6 was truly a case of whatever could go wrong, did, for the Thunder. Their route to cover in Game 7 is clear. While their three point shooting can’t be depended upon, they need to take far better care of the ball and win the turnover battle, and count on role players to play better at home — which has been the norm throughout the postseason.
How to Make Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Picks
Ready to make picks on the Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder matchup on Sunday, June 22? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend, and so much more!
