The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks will be looking to enter the All-Star break on a winning streak, and their matchup on Tuesday night will be pivotal for both teams’ seasons. It’s been a little over a year since trading Luka Doncic, and the Dallas Mavericks are once again looking at a lottery pick in the upcoming draft.
Many of their starters are injured, they traded away Anthony Davis last week, and Cooper Flagg is still too raw a talent to single-handedly carry them to the playoffs. The Mavericks were expected to challenge for a title, or at the very least make the playoffs, but they have lost seven in a row and sit five games back of the final play-in tournament position.
It is a completely different story in Phoenix. The Suns appear to be coming out of a short rebuild and have a sneaky good team in the West. Devin Booker and Jalen Green have formed quite the partnership, and the Suns currently sit in 7th place with a 31-22 record.
Their defense has been electric, the fight is there, and Phoenix will be a big favorite on the NBA odds and lines as a result.
Can Dallas snap their lengthy losing skid, or will the Suns get one step closer to a surprise playoff berth?
Here are your expert NBA picks and predictions to find out.
Matchup: Mavericks vs Suns Overview
- Date: Tuesday, February 10th, 2026
- Time: Tip-off is at 9:00 PM EST or 7:00 PM local time
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona
- Season Series Record: 1-0 Phoenix Suns
Win Probabilities
The NBA win probabilities favor the Phoenix Suns to win, with an 83.22% chance to do so. The Suns have home-court advantage and better offensive and defensive ratings. Once you factor in the injury crisis in Dallas, it is no surprise that the NBA win probabilities favor a clear favorite.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score can be calculated using insights from recent NBA games in combination with expert NBA picks and predictions. Phoenix is better on both ends of the court; they have much more to play for, and the Mavericks have lost seven consecutive games.
For the upcoming matchup between the Suns and Mavericks, the projected final score is Phoenix Suns 122-108 Dallas Mavericks.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
The Phoenix Suns have the clear edge in this matchup. No one on the Mavericks can match Devin Booker’s offense, while no one brings the same defensive intensity as Jalen Green does on the court.
Looking at the roster, Dallas is forced to call up G-League players to fill in for injuries, while the Suns have the luxury of players like Ryan Dunn and Collin Gillespie coming off the bench.
Why the Phoenix Suns Could Win
The Phoenix Suns are the hotter, more consistent team that enters this matchup with a much healthier injury report. The Suns overcame early-season injuries to build momentum, and they have a real edge in both recent and season-long form. Devin Booker is capable of generating his own offense, and the Mavericks have no answer for his production on that end of the floor.
While the Suns are strong on offense thanks to the ever-consistent Devin Booker, their real advantage is on the defensive end of the court. Phoenix has a top-ten defensive unit that is capable of shutting down anyone, and Dallas’ weak offense will not stand a chance.
The Suns have six players averaging at least one steal per game this season, and sloppy play from the Mavericks will allow them to add to those totals.
Why the Dallas Mavericks Could Win
The three-ball is the great equalizer in the NBA, and if Dallas can get hot from deep, they could pull off this upset.
While winning this year appears out of reach, the Mavericks will still want to develop their young talent to prepare for next year. Cooper Flagg is capable of dominating on both ends of the floor, and he is healthy and ready to go for this one. PJ Washington has also chipped in, but the talent dropoff after those two becomes noticeable.
Dallas will need to commit to the three-ball, take care of business on the glass, and just maybe, they can pick up a stunning win in Phoenix.
Current Suns vs Mavericks Game Outlook
There is no doubt about who has the momentum heading into this contest. Dallas has lost seven in a row, including ugly defeats against the Hornets and Timberwolves.
Since trading Anthony Davis at the deadline, the public is fading the Mavericks whenever possible, and Phoenix’s 17-9 home record makes it even less likely we will see an upset on the NBA odds.
How to Make Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Picks
The best place to make Suns vs Mavericks picks is on Sportzino. The free social sportsbook allows you to take a deep dive into player props, moneylines, spreads, and totals for every NBA game this season.
The Phoenix Suns are heavy favorites on the NBA odds, which is understandable, but that makes the Mavericks an attractive option on the point spread.
Whichever side you select, Sportzino is the clever choice for your NBA predictions.
Phoenix Suns Recent Stats
Phoenix Suns Leaders
- PPG: Devin Booker (25.3)
- Rebounds: Mark Williams (8.2)
- Assists: Devin Booker (6.3)
- Steals: Jordan Goodwin (1.5)
- Blocks: Mark Williams (1.0)
Phoenix Suns Recent Trends
The Phoenix Suns have seen a recent dip in form, going 2-3 in their last five games. Tough matchups against the surging Clippers and the mighty Warriors disrupted their form, and they have a real shot to get back on track here.
They had the same 2-3 record against the spread, with a surprising trio of home losses after they were previously 17-6 at the Mortgage Matchup Center.
Phoenix Suns Player Performance Projections
Mark Williams is expected to have a big game on the glass, as Dallas struggles to contain rebounds against teams that shoot a high percentage of twos like the Suns.
His 8.2 rebounds per game have ballooned to 9.8 per game in the month of February as Williams continues to dominate on the inside. Devin Booker will be responsible for the scoring and facilitating on the offensive end, as Phoenix has surrounded the face of the franchise with talented shooters who space the floor nicely.
Dallas Mavericks Recent Stats
Dallas Mavericks Leaders
- PPG: Cooper Flagg (20.3)
- Rebounds: PJ Washington (7.1)
- Assists: Ryan Nembhard (4.9)
- Steals: Cooper Flagg (1.2)
- Blocks: PJ Washington (1.4)
Dallas Mavericks Recent Trends
The Dallas Mavericks have been free-falling as of late, going 0-5 in their last five games in the midst of a seven-game losing streak. While covers don’t count for the NBA standings, the Mavericks have gone a respectable 2-3 against the spread with a pair of close defeats against the Rockets and Hornets.
Dallas Mavericks Player Performance Projections
The Dallas Mavericks will need to control the glass on the inside, with Cooper Flagg expected to guard Mark Williams for the majority of the matchup. He is projected to collect 6.5 rebounds, and it appears as though he is poised to sail over that number in this matchup.
Flagg is the heart and soul of the franchise, and he will need to be on his A-game if the Mavericks hope to snap their losing skid.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
The Suns are a little bit better than the Mavericks in nearly every category, including threes, points, defensive rating, offensive rating, and most importantly, wins. While the Mavericks have a fighting chance with those, they are nowhere close to the Suns in steals, which will decide this game.
Dallas’s revolving door of injuries has prevented them from building defensive continuity, while the Suns continue to stay active on defense. Phoenix is second in the NBA in steals, with Dallas down in 24th, and once you add in the Suns’ depth advantage, the Mavericks are facing an uphill battle to victory.
- ALSO CHECK OUT: Spurs vs Pelicans Predictions
Final Prediction Summary
The Phoenix Suns are overwhelming favorites on the NBA odds, and they will win this one 122-108.
They are better on both ends of the court, they have the star power needed to win in the clutch, and Dallas is already looking ahead at the 2026 NBA draft while the Suns are trying to continue their Cinderella story this season.
