What once looked like a potential playoff preview, with the San Antonio Spurs eyeing a Western Conference play-in spot and a possible seventh seed, has taken a different turn.
Now, the Victor Wembanyama-less Spurs (also missing their head coach, Gregg Popovich, due to medical reasons) are trying to salvage a season that veered off course dramatically. Back-to-back losses to the last-place New Orleans Pelicans over the past week have severely dampened the mood in San Antonio, but a division battle in Memphis might provide the spark they need.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have struggled with inconsistency coming out of the All-Star break. With three teams breathing down their necks for the second seed in the Western Conference, they can’t afford to drop games like the one on Saturday against the Spurs.
With this Southwest Division clash set for Saturday in Tennessee, here are our San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies predictions, including NBA expert picks. Tip-off is scheduled for March 1 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies Overview
Teams: San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Date: Saturday, March 1, 2025
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: FedEx Forum
Win Probabilities
The projections for the winner between the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies lean heavily toward the Memphis Grizzlies.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
In a way, the Memphis Grizzlies know exactly what the San Antonio Spurs are going through after losing superstar franchise player Victor Wembanyama for the remainder of the season. Although Wemby’s injury didn’t occur on Instagram Live the way Ja Morant’s season-ending moment once did, the Grizzlies know all too well how sudden setbacks can derail momentum.
Despite Memphis’s familiarity with the Spurs’ plight, don’t expect any sympathy on Saturday. The Grizzlies are currently locked in on securing a high playoff seed, ensuring home-court advantage for as long as possible.
Still a few games out of the Western Conference play-in picture, San Antonio’s front office might not mind sliding slightly in the standings if it improves their draft position in June. But, if that’s true, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and the remaining healthy Spurs didn’t get the memo.
They seem determined to keep their playoff hopes alive, or at the very least, play spoiler against playoff teams like Memphis.
Why the San Antonio Spurs Can Cover
With Wembanyama’s season officially over, the Spurs are handing the reins over to new addition and former All-Star De’Aaron Fox. While Wemby’s absence likely ends the Spurs’ playoff hopes, a Fox-centric approach gives them a clear path to success against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Few teams in the NBA play as fast and loose as the Grizzlies, who lead the league in pace with an average of 104.1 possessions per 48 minutes. Unfortunately for them, a byproduct of their high-tempo style has been turnovers.
Memphis ranks second in the NBA in turnovers per game, averaging 16.2. Despite its strong defense, opponents have consistently punished them for sloppy play, with the Grizz allowing 16.3 fast-break points per contest.
The Spurs have already been an efficient fast-break team. They sit just outside the NBA’s top 10 in fast-break points per game, averaging 15.9. That figure was largely set with Wemby as the offensive focal point, but now, with one of the league’s fastest and most relentless point guards leading the way, that number is bound to rise.
At his best, Fox is a blazing-fast point guard who thrives in transition, sprinting past defenses before they have a chance to set up. Off turnovers, his pace is relentless and difficult to contain. Memphis, with its propensity for giveaways, will struggle to keep up with Fox on the open floor. As a result, the Spurs have a strong case to cover.
Why the Memphis Grizzlies Can Cover
Just like Victor Wembanyama’s absence will open a path for the San Antonio Spurs to exploit a weakness of the Memphis Grizzlies, it will also give the home Grizzlies a great chance to punish a newfound soft spot in the Spurs.
The Grizzlies, with Ja Morant as one of the best rim attackers in the NBA, are excellent at penetrating the paint and scoring inside. Only Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets average more points in the paint per game than the Grizzlies, at 55.6 per contest. Only a few teams and defenders in the league can successfully deter Morant and the Grizzlies from attacking the interior.
Wemby, with his elite rim protection and unmatched length, was one of the rare players capable of altering those drives. But without the 7-foot-4 shot-blocker anchoring the defense, teams are finding far greater success scoring inside.
Even in the handful of games since the All-Star break, when Wemby’s season was officially cut short, the Spurs have already seen an uptick of over 0.5 in paint points allowed per game. As the sample size grows, expect that number to increase. That defensive regression will likely become painfully clear on Saturday against Morant and the Grizzlies.
Already undermanned and outmatched in terms of personnel and performance, the Spurs now find themselves vulnerable in the exact area where Memphis thrives. It sets up a matchup that heavily favors the Grizzlies, who are expected to win comfortably.
How to Make San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies Picks
Ready to make your picks on the San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies matchup on Saturday, March 1? Head over to Sportzino, where you’ll find every NBA game on this weekend’s slate and so much more!
