This is the second matchup between 16th seeded teams in the women’s March Madness First Four games. Both teams are on winning runs, with a 5 and 4 game run for Missouri State and SFA respectively.
Matchup: Missouri State Bears vs. SFA Ladyjacks Overview
- 9:00 pm ET tipoff at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas
- Missouri State Bears: 16th seed, 22-12 record
- SFA Ladyjacks: 16th seed, 25-9 record
- Missouri State only concede 61.0 ppg
- SFA have a +303 point differential
Win Probabilities
| Team | Win Probability |
| Missouri State Bears | 52% |
| SFA Ladyjacks | 48% |
It’s a tight call between these two teams, with the Ladyjacks having a slightly stronger record over the season. However, the Bears have a much better NET ranking, at 115 to 161. It impacts the NCAAB women odds and lines due to the gap being so stark.
Both teams have similar winning runs, with SFA winning their last 4, and Missouri State winning their last 5. However, both teams have won 5 of their last 7, although in different orders. It means their form is close, and there are no reports of injuries in sports news, meaning the gap in win probability is just 4%.
Projected Final Score
Neither team has any injury worries at the moment, so they should go into the game with a full roster. As with any basketball prediction, it’s not just recent results that go into choosing a likely winner. What makes this an interesting contest is the prospect of attack vs defense.
Missouri State is much stronger defensively, limiting teams to 61 points per game on average. SFA isn’t as strong when defending, leaking 66.4 ppg. However, it’s a role reversal when attacking, as SFA hits 75.3 ppg, with Missouri State landing 65.7.
With all that being said, most March Madness odds and lines have Missouri State as the winner at 66-65.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
It’s tough to pick between the two teams, as they have extremely similar records over the last 10 games. SFA has won 4 of the last 5, 5 of the last 7, and 7 of the last 10. Missouri State has won 5 of the last 5, 5 of the last 7, and 7 of the last 10. Missouri State is the slight favorite, and even though it’s a minor amount, is more likely to win.
Why the Missouri State Bears Can Win
Although Missouri State is 103rd in points allowed per game, it’s much higher than the 232nd position of SFA. They’re also on a slightly better winning run, having won the last 5 games in a row.
The Bears also have slightly better rebounds, landing 39.6 per game compared to 39.4 for SFA.
Why SFA Ladyjacks Can Win
SFA are on a good run of form, having won the last 4 games in a row. They have a better overall record and score more points per game than Missouri, too. It should make them better placed on basketball odds and lines, but the NET ranking impacts this.
They are much stronger for steals and blocks, even though Missouri State gives up fewer points per game.
Current Missouri State Bears vs. SFA Ladyjacks Game Outlook
Neither team is struggling with injuries, and both teams are on winning runs, although the Bears have 1 game more on their run. Going on a winning run as you begin a tournament is always a positive step, and with both teams so similar at the moment, it makes this one of the most exciting games of the First Four.
Despite the Bears being the slight favorites, it should still be a close matchup.
How to Make Your Missouri State Bears vs. SFA Ladyjacks Picks
Using data and stats is the best way to make picks on any NCAA basketball game. Check current roster availability, momentum, and season stats. All of these details will give you the information needed to make a choice based on data, rather than instinct.
Missouri State Recent Trends
- Last 5 games: W-W-W-W-W
- ATS: 18-13
- Missouri State have scored 57+ points in all of their last 10 games
Missouri State Recent Stats
| Category | Value |
| Points Per Game | 65.7 |
| Opponent PPG | 61.0 |
| FG% | 40.6 |
Missouri State Leaders
- Points: Kaemyn Bekemeier (17.4)
- Rebounds: Kaemyn Bekemeier (8.2)
- Assists: Maycee James (2.7)
Missouri State Bears Player Performance Projections
Kaemyn Bekemeier is the fulcrum for Missouri State, with her points and rebounds likely to decide whether they win or not.
SFA Ladyjacks Recent Trends
- Last 5 games: W-W-W-W-L
- ATS: 22-9
- SFA have scored 66+ points in all of their last 10 games
SFA Recent Stats
| Category | Value |
| Points Per Game | 75.3 |
| Opponent PPG | 66.4 |
| FG% | 44.1 |
SFA Leaders
- Points: Key Roseby (13.2)
- Rebounds: Key Roseby (6.7)
- Assists: Kaylinn Kemp (5.0)
SFA Ladyjacks Player Performance Projections
Similarly, to Missouri State, SFA has a player who stands out as their star. Key Roseby leads for points and rebounds, and as her name suggests, she will be key for SFA if they want to win.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
How the defense performs is likely to be the biggest factor in who wins this game. Missouri State has been much stronger over the course of the season, and if they keep that up going into this game, they are more likely to come out as the winner.
Final Prediction Summary
While the stats between these two teams are extremely close, Missouri State is the favorite to win. However, it’s extremely close, so whatever choice you make has a chance of being the correct outcome.
- UP NEXT: Lehigh vs. Prairie View Prediction
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