Southern and Samford each went 3-0 in the NCAA playoffs to reach this stage of the tournament and need one final First Four win to officially book their place in the March Madness bracket.
Southern relies on hard-nosed defense and a balanced offense to find success, while Samford has the best scorer on the court in Kaylee Yarbrough. Both of these teams have already exceeded expectations this season, but only one Cinderella story can continue to set up a matchup against the mighty South Carolina Gamecocks.
Let’s jump into the expert NCAA women’s predictions to find out which side has the best chance to prevail.
Matchup: Southern vs Samford Overview
- Date: Thursday, March 19th, 2026
- Time: Tip-off is at 7:00 PM EST
- Venue: Colonial Life Arena in Columbia, South Carolina
Win Probabilities
- Southern: 51.3%
- Samford: 48.7%
Southern has the slight edge in the win probabilities, thanks to their consistent play on the defensive end of the court. Neither side has a truly dominant scorer, which means that the extra possessions in transition will likely determine the victor, and that has helped this matchup earn attention in sports news.
Projected Final Score
Southern 59-58 Samford
The projected final score expects a very close win for Southern. There is little to separate these red-hot sides, as both rosters have stepped up their game with their season on the line. However, Samford struggles to contain defensive rebounds, and Southern’s willingness to crash the offensive glass should give them the advantage they crave.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why Southern Can Win
Southern’s ability to crash the glass offsets their inefficient offense. Getting second or third opportunities in the paint will result in a basket more often than not, and Southern is the perfect archetype of a team to reach the March Madness tournament.
They have a trio of rebounders with at least five per game, while Samford doesn’t do a good job at boxing out on defense.
Not only will they secure extra possessions on offense, but they will do the same on defense by forcing turnovers. Southern generates plenty of steals, and Samford is very susceptible to turning the ball over.
There is always the danger that Samford abandons interior offense for a three-point shooting contest, but they aren’t efficient enough from deep to make Southern pay, which is a key part of this basketball prediction.
Why Samford Can Win
Samford has the better shooters in this matchup, and a rock-bottom total of 117.5 points means that every bucket is crucial.
Southern likes to turn games into paint battles, but Samford cannot fall into that trap. They need to play their own game, which is prioritizing the three-point shot. If they can do that, it will only take a couple of momentum bursts to suddenly find themselves in the lead.
Southern will have an edge in possessions thanks to their work on the glass, but three points is always worth more than two, which could be the difference maker for Samford.
Current Southern vs Samford Game Outlook
Southern is the slight favorite in this one, but there is little to separate these sides. This is expected to be a low-scoring game with a total of 117.5 points, which means one hot streak from either side could be the difference maker.
How to Make Your Southern vs Samford Picks
The best way to make Southern vs. Samford picks is on Sportzino. You will find the best basketball odds and lines for every game this tournament, including the First Four matchup between these two teams.
Whichever side you think prevails, make sure you make your free picks and predictions on Sportzino.
Southern Recent Trends
Offense has been a problem for Southern all year, but they came to life when it mattered most in the SWAC tournament. They lost their last two regular season games by two and three points but then got revenge in the playoffs to reach the Final Four.
They are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games and will feel confident they can win as a slight favorite over Samford in this one.
Southern Recent Stats
Southern does a lot of the little things right, which allows them to offset their lack of offensive talent. They crash the offensive glass effectively (66th in the nation) and are very active on defense with 11.5 steals per game (21st in the nation). The fact that they don’t have a player averaging a double-digit point total is very rare at this level of basketball, but they spread the wealth on offense and all hustle back on defense.
They only attempt 15.4 threes per game, which is 322nd in the nation, and are relatively inefficient on offense with a 38.3% field goal percentage.
Southern Leaders
- Points: Demya Porter (9.7)
- Rebounds: Jocelyn Tate (5.6)
- Assists: Mykayla Cunningham (3.7)
- Steals: Jocelyn Tate (2.0)
Southern Player Performance Projections
Mykayla Cunningham prefers to distribute rather than score herself, but this is a game where she needs to get into the paint. Samford will spread their defense to take away Southern’s best passer, and she will have an increased point projection as a result.
On the glass, Tate, Porter, and Zaria Hurston all average at least five rebounds per game and have no hesitation when getting involved on the offensive glass. They will all have high rebound projections, as Southern knows they need extra possessions to offset their inefficiency on offense.
Samford Recent Trends
Samford lost two of their final three regular season games but then strung together three straight playoff wins to earn a spot in the First Four. They took down Wofford, East TN State, and Chattanooga as the sixth seed in the Southern Conference to reach this stage of the tournament. They have been flying against the spread and come in as a slight underdog against Southern in this one.
Their home and road splits have been noticeable, as they have gone 8-4 at home compared to 4-13 on the road. However, they did go a perfect 3-0 at neutral locations to close out the postseason, which has made the March Madness odds and lines especially interesting for this game.
Samford Recent Stats
Samford relies on the three-ball to find success, as they struggle on the offensive end. They are 286th in PPG this year at 60.2 but score the 32nd-most three-point shots. The rest of their offensive stats, including overall field goal percentage at 39.0%, are abysmal, but a hot streak from three-point land can offset those flaws.
On defense, they use their active hands to collect the 30th-most steals in the nation, but still allow 64.7 PPG on 39.9% from the field, which is worth noting when comparing NCAAB Odds.
Samford Leaders
- Points: Kaylee Yarbrough (12.2)
- Rebounds: Emily Snoddy (5.7)
- Assists: Sierra Godbolt (3.1)
- Steals: Sierra Godbolt (1.1)
Samford Player Performance Projections
Samford will need to keep relying on the three-point shot if they hope to pull off this upset. Southern is the more fundamentally sound team, but it doesn’t take many threes to build a lead in what is projected to be a low-scoring game.
All four players averaging at least 6 PPG are 33.9% or better from behind the arc, meaning any one of them could get hot enough to tilt the floor in their favor. Sierra Godbolt will have the ball in her hands often as the primary point guard, and she may elect to shoot more often than pass in a game of this magnitude. Her assists projection will be high, but she may even lead the team in both assists and points if she gets off to a strong start.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
If Southern can dominate on the glass, this will be their game to lose. However, if Samford can match their intensity down low, their three-point advantage will allow them to prevail.
Final Prediction Summary
There will be little to separate these two sides, but Southern is projected to pick up the win.
Neither side is very efficient on offense, which means this one will come down to who takes more high-quality shots. Southern dominates the glass and generates plenty of steals, so they get the nod by the finest of margins.
Final Score: Southern 59-58 Samford
- UP NEXT: NC State vs. Tennessee Prediction
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