These two teams faced off to open up the NCAA season, and it is only fitting that they have the chance to eliminate one another in the first round of March Madness. NC State won that meeting 80-77, but these are two very different teams since that meeting.
Neither side had the season they had hoped for, as Tennessee lost seven in a row to close things out. NC State had a better ending to the year, but their 20-10 record still left plenty to be desired in a weak Atlantic Coast Conference.
This is poised to be an excellent matchup between an electric perimeter offense and a dominant force in the paint, but only one can move on to the second round this weekend.
Matchup: NC State vs Tennessee Overview
- Date: Friday, March 20th, 2026
- Time: Tip-off is at 8:00 PM EST
- Venue: Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan
- Head-to-head Record: 1-0 NC State
Win Probabilities
- Tennessee: 46.5%
- NC State: 53.5%
NC State has the slight edge to make it a second straight victory over Tennessee. The Volunteers will have no answer for their dominance on the glass, while the three-point defense for NC State has been steadily improving.
However, there is little to separate the two sides, as illustrated by the razor-tight win probabilities, which is why this matchup has drawn plenty of attention in sports news.
Projected Final Score
NC State 77-73 Tennessee
The projected final score is another close win for NC State. Their offensive efficiency down low through Khamil Pierre is hard to slow down.
Tennessee will send both Janiah Barker and Zee Spearman to slow her down, but it won’t be enough, as her high-percentage chances will get converted more often than not.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why NC State Can Win
The most dominant player on the court for NC State is Khamil Pierre. Her partnership with Zoe Brooks has been excellent, but the reality is that this team is still built around Pierre. Her commanding 12 rebounds per game result in her getting easy second-chance points down low, and she rarely makes a mistake under the hoop. Brooks will not hesitate to get her the ball early, but can also drive into the lane and finish tough layups herself.
One player who needs to step up is Zamareya Jones. Pierre and Brooks are on the verge of becoming stars, but Brooks’ ability to keep defenses honest with her deep ball is crucial for NC State’s success.
Tennessee will be firing shots from three-point land all game, and it will be up to Brooks and her 36.7% clip from deep to offset that offense. If NC State can keep things close on the outside, their dominance on the inside will allow them to pull away, making that the foundation of this basketball prediction.
Why Tennessee Can Win
Tennessee has the three-point shooting needed to pull off a small upset. They have several shooters who can get hot in a hurry, and a low-scoring affair like this makes the deep ball even more potent.
Talaysia Cooper is the heart and soul of this offense, leading the team in points and assists while doing a good job of crashing the offensive glass. Cooper is almost always involved in the play, loves to pressure the basketball on defense, and will not hesitate to get her hands dirty in the painted area.
As long as she can generate more turnovers than she has herself, Cooper will be in a position to seal the win for her team in the closing stages.
Current NC State vs Tennessee Game Outlook
NC State is a slight favorite to win against Tennessee in the first round of the March Madness bracket.
Despite the fact that Tennessee has lost seven in a row, they are only a slight underdog thanks to their ability to get hot from behind the three-point arc. NC State already has a win over Tennessee this year and will feel confident they can prevail again with their season on the line.
How to Make Your NC State vs Tennessee Picks
There is no debate over how to make your NC State vs Tennessee picks, and that is by visiting Sportzino.
Whether you are taking the favorite or the underdog, Sportzino has the best basketball odds and lines for every game of the tournament. NC State and Tennessee will be one of the best first-round matchups this year, so make sure you take advantage of the opportunity to make free picks.
NC State Recent Trends
NC State limped over the finish line this season, losing three of their last six games, all by double digits. They haven’t been able to take down the top teams in the conference and only went 2-4 against the spread in that span. Their inability to score the three-point shot has prevented them from keeping it close against the top-tier teams, but their dominance down low has allowed them to beat up on bottom-tier opposition.
NC State Recent Stats
NC State dominates on the inside thanks to Khamil Pierre. The 6’2 forward has an astonishing 12 rebounds per game, propelling NC State to the 5th most rebounds in the country.
On defense, they only allow 10.4 free throws per game, the fourth fewest, and consistently force shots from the outside. However, their three-point percentage against has been abysmal, while NC State only shoots 31.5% from behind the arc. Their overall field goal percentage is a respectable 44.9% thanks to their willingness to get the ball in the paint for high-percentage looks.
NC State Leaders
- Points: Khamil Pierre (16.8)
- Rebounds: Khamil Pierre (12.0)
- Assists: Zoe Brooks (4.4)
- Steals: Zoe Brooks (1.7)
NC State Player Performance Projections
NC State has found success when they control the inside and limit the second-chance points for their opponents. While that would imply that Khamil Pierre is poised for a big showing, the reality is that Tennessee will do everything to slow her down.
Instead, NC State is projected to look to Zoe Brooks on the outside. Brooks is a menace on both ends of the court, and she often draws double teams if left alone in the open floor. She always has her head up with a team-leading 4.4 assists and is poised for another strong showing with a complete stat line.
Tennessee Recent Trends
Tennessee was en route to a fantastic season before they dropped seven straight games to close out the year. All seven of those defeats came by three or more possessions, as Tennessee fell apart when it mattered most. They went just 1-6 against the spread in that span, capping off their year with a 76-64 loss against their bitter rivals Alabama in the SEC tournament.
This relegated them to the 10th seed in the March Madness bracket and added even more intrigue to the March Madness odds and lines for this matchup.
Tennessee Recent Stats
Tennessee plays at a fast pace and will look to dominate on the offensive end. They have a balanced set of scorers with their starting five all averaging at least 8.6 PPG, allowing them to finish 26th in the nation with 77.0 PPG. Their biggest asset is the three-ball, as they take the 5th-most and make the 9th-most shots from behind the arc.
On the other end of the floor, their interior defense has struggled, as they have allowed 69.4 PPG, or the 295th in scoring defense in the nation. Their field goal percentage allowed is even worse at 42.8%, or the 305th-lowest in women’s basketball, which is an important stat to weigh when comparing NCAAB Odds.
Tennessee Leaders
- Points: Talaysia Cooper (15.7)
- Rebounds: Janiah Barker (6.6)
- Assists: Talaysia Cooper (3.6)
- Steals: Talaysia Cooper (2.7)
Tennessee Player Performance Projections
Tennessee will look to rain the three-ball down on NC State. They have several shooters averaging at least 30% from behind the arc, including both Talaysia Cooper and Janiah Barker. Tennessee’s leading scorers will look to get going from deep early and often, as that is their best chance at beating the down-low game from NC State.
Barker is projected to lead the way while trying to draw Pierre away from the hoop whenever possible.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
This is a classic matchup of a three-point team facing off against one that enjoys playing in the paint.
NC State will look to drive the ball down low whenever possible, and if Tennessee can slow that down, this is their game to lose. However, NC State will understand that Tennessee will offset their offense with a three-point barrage and will leave Pierre alone down low whenever possible.
Ultimately, whichever side can adapt their game for this specific opponent will prevail.
Final Prediction Summary
This one is going to be close, but we are going with NC State to oust their nearby rivals. Tennessee has no answer for Khamil Pierre in the paint, and their three-point shooting isn’t consistent enough to offset dozens of extra possessions for NC State.
Final Score: NC State 77-73 Tennessee
- UP NEXT: Southern vs. Samford Prediction
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