Ohio State vs Texas Prediction

As far as season opening games go, they don’t get much better, or bigger, than this—and Sportzino’s free sportsbook is here to break down the NCAAF odds and NCAAF prediction at play.

In one corner, we’ve got the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes, ready to get a hero’s return at the Horseshoe following the triumph of last season. After an exodus of talent to the NFL in April’s draft, the reigning champions enter the year as No. 3 in the country and not even the Big Ten’s top-ranked team.

In the other corner, the challenger is No. 1 Texas. It’s been decades since the Longhorns entered a season with such lofty expectations, and rightly so. With football royalty under center in Heisman favorite Arch Manning, the spotlight has arguably never been brighter on Texas.

With college football’s fantastic return on the slate this Saturday in Columbus, check out our Ohio State vs. Texas prediction, including American football odds, with kickoff set for August 30 at 12:00 p.m. ET.

Matchup Ohio State Buckeyes vs Texas Longhorns Overview

Teams: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns

Date: Saturday, August 30, 2025

Time: 12:00 p.m. ET

Venue: Ohio Stadium

Win Probabilities

The NCAAF win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NCAAF games in combination with expert NCAAF picks and predictions.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the defending national champions and at home, and thus have been given a 57.4% chance to win this NCAAF game.

Meanwhile, the Texas Longhorns have the number one spot in the nation and have a 51.2% chance, according to the NCAAF win probabilities.

Projected Final Score

The projected final score anticipates a close game at the Horseshoe, but for the Texas Longhorns to prevail with a final score of Texas Longhorns 31-28 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Expert Prediction: Who Wins?

The expanded college football playoff may have reduced some of the early season pressure, with one loss far, far from being a death knell, but the circumstance of this early season battle in Columbus between the Texas Longhorns and Ohio State Buckeyes still oozes intrigue.

Texas, opening the year as number one in the nation, would likely see its hopes of retaining that standing through to January washed away with a loss—the likelihood of a zero or one loss team elsewhere in the country is too great. To add to the equation, the Longhorns also want a little revenge after they were ousted from last year’s college football playoff by these same Buckeyes.

Then there’s Ohio State, who, despite the turnover from the triumphant 2024 season, could feel slighted by its place as No. 3 in the nation. To lose at the hands of the Longhorns would be to affirm pollers’ choice to rank it as such, and it would likely resign the Buckeyes to a spot outside the top two come year end.

That college football playoff implications are being discussed at all—especially for an August game—only furthers the emphasis on this game.

It’s a fantastic, box-office matchup worthy of all the eyes it’s going to get.

For more expert breakdowns, check out our Utah vs UCLA Prediction and other in-depth NCAAF match previews.

Why the Ohio State Buckeyes Can Cover

The Buckeyes, even for college football standards—and yes, even for modern college football standards as it’s descended into the wild west—are facing an absurd amount of turnover.

Gone are the starting quarterback, the offensive coordinator, the defensive coordinator, the defensive heartbeat, multiple key players on both lines, and the veteran wide receiver.

The early parts of the 2025 season will feature a lot of trial and error for Ohio State, despite Saturday’s occasion leaving little room for the latter. While the Buckeyes settle into their new reality, they’re going to need to lean heavily on the star power they have on either side of the ball.

While the quarterback on the other sideline may be entering the season as the Heisman favorite, in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State may just have the best player in the nation.

As a freshman, Smith had games of 187 yards, 119 yards, 103 yards, and a pair of 100-pieces. Now in year two, there is a wide expectation Smith goes completely nuclear—while still being another year away from NFL eligibility.

Much like he did against Oregon in the college football playoff quarterfinal—in which he caught seven balls at a 26.7 yards per clip with two scores—Ohio State’s going to need Smith to take over, even more so with a new passer under center.

On the other side of the ball, safety Caleb Downs is going to need to hold his own against Arch Manning and what’s expected to be an elite offense.

If Ohio State can get star performances from its two brightest stars, an upset at the Horseshoe becomes possible.

Why the Texas Longhorns Can Cover

It’s difficult to remember such a hyped college career—a college career finally set to blossom.

Arch Manning has, through two seasons at Texas, thrown a total of 95 passes as a part-time player. Now, the latest in a line of football royalty has taken full control of the reins, and the hype is obvious.

Texas is ranked first in the country and is the national champion favorite—Manning himself being the preseason Heisman favorite. That promise actually happening is, ultimately, the way Texas can cover in this spot—maybe even win outright.

The Longhorns are expected to have one of the country’s most high-powered offenses, and they’re going to need exactly that to rise to the top in the ruthless SEC.

College football may have more ways to mitigate quarterback play, but ultimately, there’s still no answer for truly elite quarterback play. Ohio State, barring an unforeseen breakout, doesn’t have that to lean on. If Manning delivers on the promise, the Buckeyes won’t be able to keep up.