The Toronto Maple Leafs host Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche for an exciting NHL on TNT matchup. MacKinnon, the MVP favorite, has put up an astonishing 103 points this season, including a league-leading 73 assists. He’ll be reunited with his Four Nations teammate, Mitch Marner, as two of the league’s most top-heavy teams face off on Wednesday night. Auston Matthews and the rest of the Leafs are coming off a dominant 6-2 win over the Flames on Monday and will seek revenge after falling to the Avalanche 7-4 just two weeks ago. Can Valeri Nichushkin replicate his four-point, three-goal performance from that matchup, or will the Leafs pick up a crucial win in their fight for the Atlantic Division?
Matchup: Avalanche vs Leafs Overview
- Teams: Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Wednesday, March 19th, 2025
- Time: Puck drop is at 7:00 PM EST
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Win Probabilities:
The NHL win probabilities combine expert predictions and recent performance insights. For this matchup, the Colorado Avalanche are given a slight edge, with a 50.96% chance to win. Meanwhile, the Toronto Maple Leafs are wrapping up a four-game home stand and have a 49.04% chance to win this game.
Projected Final Score:
The projected final score for this NHL game is expected to be close, and these two teams may need extra time to determine a winner. Despite the Leafs’ home-ice advantage, the Avs are favored to win, with a predicted final score of Colorado Avalanche 4-3 Toronto Maple Leafs.
Avalanche vs Leafs Odds
The Colorado Avalanche are coming into this showdown as slight road favorites against the Toronto Maple Leafs, according to the NHL odds. Both teams are essentially locked into a playoff spot and have been two of the hottest teams since the start of 2025.
| Colorado Avalanche | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
| Moneyline | -120 | -110 |
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+200) | +1.5 (-300) |
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why the Colorado Avalanche Could Win
The Colorado Avalanche have been dominating the NHL despite injuries, but are now getting healthy at the right time. Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon are arguably the best forward-defenseman duo in the league, and the pair always gives the Avalanche a chance to win on any given night. Valeri Nichushkin had his best game of the season against the Leafs two weeks ago, and the depth in Colorado has transformed this team into a legitimate force. They added Martin Necas and Brock Nelson at the trade deadline, and their roster is a nightmare matchup for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Avalanche have won 8 of their last 9 games and are firing on all cylinders with the postseason less than a month away. MacKinnon continues to dominate offensively, and the team’s scoring depth has been the real game-changer for Colorado. Nelson and Necas have seamlessly integrated into the lineup, and the Avalanche now have 8-10 players capable of scoring 25+ goals this season. Colorado has been one of the best NHL picks this season and will be hungry to complete the 2-0 season sweep against Toronto after splitting the series 1-1 for the past five consecutive seasons.
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Could Win
The Toronto Maple Leafs possess all the talent they need to win this matchup against the Colorado Avalanche. These two teams last met on March 8th of this year, where the Leafs squandered a third-period lead, allowing four unanswered goals in their 7-4 defeat. A pair of empty-net goals made the scoreline appear worse than it was, but there is no denying the Leafs were outplayed in that matchup.
Toronto’s “Core Four”—Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares—are running out of time to bring success to the franchise. The quartet has been given several years to deliver a deep playoff run, and they finally have the defense they need to succeed. Morgan Rielly is now surrounded by gritty NHL defensemen, and players like Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are exactly what many experts thought the Leafs had been missing in recent seasons.
Taking down the Colorado Avalanche is no easy task, but the Leafs have the added benefit of home-ice advantage and are feeling confident after their blowout victory on St. Patrick’s Day. If Toronto can limit Nathan MacKinnon’s production and get an improved showing from Anthony Stolarz, this will be their game to lose. A crucial contest against the 2022 Stanley Cup champions will be the perfect way to measure the ceiling of the current Leafs roster.
How to Make Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks
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