The Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning square off in a potential Stanley Cup Finals preview. Both teams have made deep playoff runs in recent seasons and are equipped with stacked rosters from top to bottom. Tampa Bay has Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal with Nikita Kucherov spearheading their offense. Across the ice, Jake Oettinger won’t be outdueled in net, and the scoring depth in Dallas ensures they have four dangerous lines for the Lightning to deal with.
Both teams are 6-3-1 in their last ten games and are sitting second in their respective divisions. This will be a great opportunity for both to test themselves against a fellow contender, and the perfect chance for you to test your own NHL predictions. Who do you think will come out on top in a rematch of the 2019-2020 Stanley Cup Finals?
Matchup: Stars vs Lightning Overview
- Teams: Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars
- Date: Thursday, March 20th, 2025
- Time: Puck drop is at 8:00 PM EST or 7:00 PM local time
- Venue: American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
Win Probabilities:
Using expert NHL predictions in combination with insights from recent NHL games, win probabilities can be generated for both teams. For the Tampa Bay Lightning, they have been given a 48.01% chance to defend home ice and win this exciting NHL matchup. Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars are a strong road team and have a 51.99% chance to win, according to the NHL win probabilities.
Projected Final Score:
The projected final score for the Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning matchup suggests there will be little to separate these two teams. Both teams will be confident they can win, but the Stars are slightly favored to pull off a narrow victory with a final score of Dallas Stars 3-2 Tampa Bay Lightning.
Stars vs Lightning Odds
The Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning are both accustomed to being heavy favorites on the NHL odds, but that is not the case in this matchup. The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to use home-ice advantage to pick up the win in a battle between two of the league’s best goaltenders. The strong netminders mean the total goals on the NHL odds are much lower than usual for both of these contenders.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why the Dallas Stars Could Win
The Dallas Stars went all-in at the trade deadline, picking up Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes. Rantanen joins an already talented group of forwards in Dallas, and the depth on this team is truly remarkable. The Stars have the top-end talent needed to match other elite scorers and have 14 players with 20 or more points this season. That does not include new arrivals Rantanen, Mikael Granlund, and Cody Ceci. Dallas got the household name they were desperately craving with Rantanen, and now they truly feel like they have the well-rounded team needed to win the Stanley Cup.
In this matchup, Jake Oettinger will have a massive role to play. The Stars’ goaltender has gone 2-1 with a .918 save percentage in his last three starts against Tampa Bay. In this battle of two top teams, whichever elite goalie can stand on their head will likely be the deciding factor. For the most part, Oettinger has been able to outduel Vasilevskiy over the last two seasons, and the Dallas Stars will firmly believe the NHL odds were correct in making them road favorites against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Why the Tampa Bay Lightning Could Win
From 2020 to 2022, the Tampa Bay Lightning made the Stanley Cup Finals in three consecutive seasons, winning two Cups in that span. Their first Cup lift came against the Dallas Stars when they won 4-2 in the 2019-2020 season. However, since losing to the Colorado Avalanche in the 2022 finals, the Lightning have been unable to follow that hot streak, as they have been bounced in the first round of the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.
There’s no denying the talent in Tampa Bay, and their championship hopes will hinge on their ability to win tight games. With a +57 goal differential this season, the Lightning have the fourth-highest in the league. However, they’re tied for second in the Atlantic Division with the Toronto Maple Leafs, just two points behind the Florida Panthers, who sit atop the standings. Tampa Bay has proven they can rack up the score against weaker teams, but to make a real playoff run, they’ll need to be clinical against elite opponents like Dallas.
Tampa Bay managed to fill the hole left by Steven Stamkos’s departure by adding Jake Guentzel, but Kucherov still needs more help on the offensive end. He has 95 points this season, while second-place Brandon Hagel is far behind with 73 points. The top line is consistent for Tampa Bay, but they will need to match the depth that Dallas brings to the table. If their bottom-six forwards can hold their own, the top end of the Tampa Bay lineup has the potential to overwhelm Dallas’ defense and secure this victory.
How to Make Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks
There is no debate about how to make your free picks and predictions for the Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, and that is by visiting Sportzino. Sportzino offers the best NHL odds for every game this season and will help you gear up for the NHL playoffs. You can make free NHL predictions on the moneyline, puck line, total, and player props.
