This is the most important regular-season game for both teams this season.
Just five games remain on the schedule, and two points separate the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning at the top of the Atlantic Division. Winning the Atlantic Division is crucial for these teams’ respective playoff aspirations, as home ice advantage will go a long way in determining who can make a deep playoff run.
Nikita Kucherov has been the most productive player on the ice, but the trio of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander will be impossible to contain. The Lightning have been able to dominate Toronto in the postseason, but the Leafs have the chance to increase their lead on top of the division as they look to clinch the Atlantic for the first time in franchise history.
Can Tampa Bay crush the fragile hopes of Leafs fans once again, or will Toronto finally set itself up to end its miserable playoff streak? Here are the expert NHL predictions for the Leafs vs Lightning NHL game.
Matchup: Leafs vs Lightning Overview
- Teams: Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars
- Date: Wednesday, April 9th, 2025
- Time: Puck drop is at 7:00 PM EST
- Venue: Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida
Win Probabilities:
The NHL win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NHL games in combination with expert NHL picks and predictions. The Toronto Maple Leafs are riding a four-game win streak but have been given the short end of the stick with a 45.51% chance to win this NHL game. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning have surged up the standings and, according to the NHL win probabilities, have a 54.49% chance to close the gap on top of the division.
Projected Final Score:
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the Sunshine State, but for the Tampa Bay Lightning to prevail with a final score of Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 Toronto Maple Leafs.
Leafs vs Lightning Odds
There is little to separate the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs on the NHL odds, but the slight edge goes to the hosts. Tampa Bay has been excellent at home this season, and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been able to slam the door against Toronto in recent meetings. Recent winning streaks from both of these teams have seen them pull ahead of the Florida Panthers in the Atlantic Division, but there is no doubt about the level of atmosphere expected on Wednesday night. The NHL odds anticipate a low-scoring tilt, as strong goaltending and a playoff-like atmosphere will prevent this from turning into a free-flowing contest.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Could Win
The Toronto Maple Leafs have entered each season with lofty expectations, but this is the first time they are in a position to win the Atlantic Division with just six games remaining in the regular season. They hold a narrow lead over the Lightning, and this game could not be more crucial with less than two weeks remaining in the season. The motivation is at an all-time high, and the Toronto Maple Leafs appear poised to get over the hump and finally claim the division crown.
The Maple Leafs have already beaten the Lightning three times this season and will be looking to complete the sweep on Wednesday night. Auston Matthews is not as lethal as he has been in previous years, but the scoring depth in Toronto is something we have yet to see during the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era. There is no denying the importance of the Leafs’ top line and their dominant power play, but Toronto truly feels like a different franchise this season. They have won four consecutive games, three in a row against the Lightning, and can all but clinch the division with a regulation win over Tampa Bay. The motivation is at an all-time high, and a win here would signify an actual change in fate for this crushed franchise.
Why the Tampa Bay Lightning Could Win
The Tampa Bay Lightning will have a rest advantage after the Maple Leafs faced off against the Florida Panthers on Tuesday night. They will look to take advantage of some tired legs from Toronto. Tampa Bay has gone a scorching 18-8 since February 1st and has shown no signs of slowing down.
Nikita Kucherov has a personal accolade to chase in this game, and his scoring streak against the Maple Leafs will have him confident he can chase down Nathan MacKinnon for the Art Ross trophy. He narrowly edged MacKinnon for the award last season and can become the second player since Jaromir Jagr in 1999-2001 to win the award in back-to-back seasons with a strong showing against the Maple Leafs. Kucherov will be a crucial part of the Tampa Bay offense, but the strength of this team lies on the defensive end of the ice. Andrei Vasilevskiy is among the best goaltenders in the league, and Victor Hedman can consistently break up fast break chances. Tampa Bay is a great NHL pick to make for this matchup as long as they avoid an early deficit against the dangerous Leafs goal-scorers.
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