In a potential second-round playoff series preview, and the first of two meetings in three games, a pair of Midwest outfits will collide on Thursday night as the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Indiana Pacers.
The Cavs have spent the entire 2024-25 NBA season cruising comfortably atop their conference’s standings and are ready to await the winner of the seven-verse-eight play-in game – while enjoying the comfort of home-court advantage throughout the East playoffs.
Indiana, meanwhile, has enjoyed a tremendous second-half surge from Tyrese Haliburton to help vault it into the top half of the Eastern Conference standings. With a four-verse-five matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks likely around the corner, the Pacers will gladly take on a warm up against a similarly big, physical team in the Cavs.
With an Eastern Conference clash from the heartland on the slate this Thursday in the Hoosier State, check out our Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for April 10 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Overview
Teams: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers
Date: Thursday, April 10, 2025
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Gainsbridge Fieldhouse
Win Probabilities
The NBA win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NBA games in combination with expert NBA picks and predictions. The Cleveland Cavaliers are riding a hot streak, with seven wins in their last nine games, and have a chance to win this NBA game. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers are riding a five-game win streak and have a chance to beat the Eastern Conference-leading Cavaliers, according to the NBA win probabilities.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in the Hoosier State, but for the road, the Cleveland Cavaliers are expected to come out on top, with a final score of Cleveland Cavaliers 114-111 Indiana Pacers.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
As is the case with most games at this juncture of the regular season, there are caveats to keep in mind. Individual teams’ motivations, both in terms of seeding and potential playoff matchups, need to be considered.
That’s the case in Indiana, where you have a team in the Cleveland Cavaliers with nothing to play for, as they are locked into the first seed in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers, on the other hand, could still fall out of a top-four seed and home-court advantage — or catch the New York Knicks for the third seed and a better matchup.
The looming rematch between the Cavaliers and Pacers will further muddy the waters in Indiana this Thursday. These two teams will wrap up the season against one another on Sunday, presenting them with a mini playoff series with two games in three and a chance for a dry run at schematic adjustments.
All told, the landscape in the Eastern Conference, ahead of this matchup, sets up an intriguing battle.
Why the Cleveland Cavaliers Can Cover
Though the Cavaliers are without concrete motivation in this matchup, absent anything to play for, they can still effectively shut off the Pacers’ two favorite routes to offense.
Led by ball-handlers Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, the Pacers’ offense thrives off penetrating defenses, collapsing the shell, and then either finishing at the rim or creating for teammates with the defense in rotation. Indiana is a top 10 team by points in the paint per game, at 50.8, and its production is greater when considering the open looks created from the paint, too.
But Cleveland’s defense – led by Defensive Player of the Year favorite Evan Mobley — has been elite inside all season. The Cavs allow just 47.0 points inside per game — the eighth-lowest mark in the league — and can effectively build a wall with Mobley and Jarrett Allen to cut off the Pacers’ drive-and-kick game.
Alternatively, Indiana creates a solid chunk of offense in transition, powered by Haliburton’s lethal hit ahead passing and Siakam’s ability to grab and go in the open floor.
The Pacers are a top-five offense by fast break points per game (17.4), but Cleveland and the steady hand of Darius Garland limit open floor opportunities. The Cavs give up the third-fewest turnovers in the league per game, at 13.1, and are one of a dozen teams in the league to allow 15.0 fast break points per game or fewer.
Though Cleveland is short on motivation here, its structure and consistency are a massive reason for its standing atop the Eastern Conference—and why it could cover and win outright despite the skewed motivations.
Why the Indiana Pacers Can Cover
Not only do the Pacers have the motivation and chances factor, while the Cavs do not, but they’re also just flat-out playing better basketball at the moment.
Over the last 10 games, the Pacers have a vastly superior defensive rating — seventh in the league, compared to Cleveland at 18 — and net rating, slotting in sixth while the Cavs have sunk to 13th.
Even offensively, where the Cavs have remained ahead of the Pacers in offensive rating, Indiana is getting its offense in a more efficient manner. While Cleveland’s ninth in offensive rating over the last 10 games, compared to Indiana’s 11th, it’s the Pacers who are a top five team by true shooting percentage — while Cleveland sits 12th.
Both teams have an All-NBA guard to turn to, but those scales are titled here, too. Haliburton is playing some of the best basketball of his career — certainly since his star turn in December 2023 — and has the Pacers’ offense rolling as he heads toward another All-NBA nod.
The Cavs, meanwhile, have already begun to manage Donovan Mitchell’s workload ahead of the postseason, with the one-time All-NBA guard sitting out on Tuesday. If Mitchell is again rested on Thursday, Cleveland may not have the ammo to keep up with Indiana — even if its defense can limit the Pacers’ offense.
Ultimately, motivation must be counted heavily in the equation here. With so much still to play for, the Pacers should come out red-hot at home against the Cavs.
How to Make Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers Picks
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