The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff delivered some fantastic excitement in the quarterfinals, with the proof of concept coming in the form of all four teams with a bye getting eliminated.
The Fiesta Bowl saw the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions easily handle the No. 3 Boise State Broncos, moving on to the CFP semifinals after bottling up the dominant Ashton Jeanty.
The Sugar Bowl, meanwhile, featured a Georgia Bulldogs team unable to overcome their starting quarterback’s absence. The No. 7-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish capitalized on the opportunity and knocked off No. 2 Georgia 23-10 in a game that was never particularly competitive.
With a spot in the National Championship on the line in the Orange Bowl in Miami on Thursday, the chances are sky-high. Ahead of kickoff, check out our Orange Bowl predictions, including our Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions expert picks, with the game set for January 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Orange Bowl 2025 Matchup Overview
Teams: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Date: Thursday, January 9, 2025
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Penn State Nittany Lions is the Penn State Nittany Lions. The winner probabilities are 50.00% (Penn State Nittany Lions) and 59.18% (Notre Dame Fighting Irish).
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this Orange Bowl matchup is Penn State Nittany Lions 13-24 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Why the Penn State Nittany Lions Can Cover
For the first time since the 1976 Gator Bowl, and only the second time ever, two storied programs will collide in a postseason game as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions meet in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night. And this time around, the chances are considerably higher, with a trip to the National Championship on the line.
Though the Broncos didn’t put up as much of a fight as expected against Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, the brief fight they did sustain is encouraging from a Nittany Lions perspective. The 10-point lead they took into the second half against Boise State disappeared quickly, with a three-and-out followed by a long touchdown for the Broncos.
However, with a lead cut down to just three points, Penn State came alive. Two touchdowns and three interceptions helped the Nittany Lions squash any possibility of an upset, and it was all on display at that moment. The mental toughness to rebound from a bad start to the second half, the playmaking by the defense, and the ever-present explosiveness from the offense are all great foundations of a title team.
Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Can Cover
While Penn State’s quality was on display almost for the entirety of the second half, Notre Dame’s win in the Sugar Bowl came in a strange way. In just a few plays on either side of halftime, the Fighting Irish scored 17 points through a field goal, a turnover, and a special teams touchdown.
The cushion those vital plays provided was enough for the Irish to send the Bulldogs home, with backup quarterback Gunner Stockton unable to muster enough offense for Georgia to fight back. While Stockton and a limited Bulldogs offense failed to give Notre Dame’s similarly limited offense much of a test, the Nittany Lions will be different.
With dynamic weapons like Omari Evans, who can take the top off any defense, and the best tight end in the country in Tyler Warren, Penn State’s offense is a different case for Notre Dame to deal with. The Nittany Lions’ rushing attack spoke for itself throughout the 2024 season, and, as the Fiesta Bowl showed, they can add an element of explosiveness. With all due respect to tailback Jeremiyah Love, Penn State’s Warren is the best offensive player in this game.
While Penn State hopes to get a little extra big-play ability out of its offense, it’ll be more of the same hard-nosed attack as Notre Dame. After a 90-yard game through the air in the Sugar Bowl, Irish quarterback Riley Leonard will again lead a multidimensional running game at the helm of Notre Dame’s offense.
As the offense’s signal-caller, Leonard set the pace this season with over 700 yards on the ground and a fantastic 14 rushing touchdowns. However, he won’t be doing it alone with Jeremiyah Love very much the lightning to Leonard’s thunder. The sophomore proved to be one of the most electrifying players in the country this year, going for over 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns at a yards per carry above 7.0.
The Fighting Irish have proved time and time again in 2024-25 that their dominant defense, which allowed fewer than 14 points per game, can do enough to keep its more limited offense in games. Even against Penn State, we would expect that to be true in a tight game.
Everything in this matchup points to two teams being extremely evenly matched and, on paper, capable of advancing and giving their next opponent a tough game in the National Championship. That means that the Orange Bowl will come down to fine margins, and that’s where a clear winner stands out.
The difference in quality between the head coaches is stark. Penn State head coach James Franklin carries with him an ugly big-game reputation. Through 11 seasons, Franklin has won just a single game against a top-five ranked team, with an overall mark of 1-15. On the other side, Marcus Freeman’s three full seasons as Irish head coach have seen them win a bowl game every year.
In what will be a tight, intense battle with little to separate the two, I want to back the Fighting Irish and a team without the history of falling flat in the biggest moments.
Current Orange Bowl 2025 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -145 | -2.5 (-120) | O45.5 (-120) |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | +100 | +2.5 (-120) | U45.5 (-120) |
How to Make Orange Bowl 2025 Picks
Ready to make picks on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions matchup on Thursday, January 9? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every college football game on the slate this weekend and so much more!
