What began as a poorly received idea is now here, and it looks like it’s going to blow away everyone’s expectations. The inaugural expanded College Football Playoff will begin on Friday, with a meeting between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
All four matchups promise drama, making college football picks all the more intriguing as bowl season gets underway in earnest. With the long path to the National Championship set to begin and four spots in the quarterfinals on the line, there’s no time to waste.
From South Bend to Columbus and all the stops in between, it’s time to dive into our CFP rankings predictions, including our NCAA football picks against the spread.
College Football Playoff Predictions
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
| Indiana vs. Notre Dame | Notre Dame -7.5 (-110) | Indiana +245/Notre Dame -290 | 51.5 |
| SMU vs. Penn State | Penn State -9 (-110) | SMU +275/Penn State -325 | 53.5 |
| Clemson vs. Texas | Texas -11 (-110) | Clemson +350/Texas -450 | 51.5 |
| Tennessee vs. Ohio State | Ohio State -7.5 (-115) | Tennessee +235/Ohio State -280 | 47.5 |
College Football Playoff Predictions Odds Analysis
(No. 10) Indiana at (No. 7) Notre Dame
- Spread: Notre Dame -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana +245/Notre Dame -290
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Time: Friday, December 20 at 8:00 p.m. ET
The college football playoff will get started with an epic, unexpected in-state battle between the Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish. With the two fan bases overlapping between hoops and football, it’ll be a strange feeling in South Bend.
It will also be well set up for an intense and low-scoring affair. For starters, the intensity of a postseason game often breeds a little tighter, cagier play on both sides of the ball.
More importantly, however, are the two shining units in this matchup. The Fighting Irish defense spent the entire season in a scrap and finished third in the nation in points allowed per game at 13.6. The Hoosiers defense, meanwhile, suffocated opposing tailbacks all year, limiting opponents to just over 70 yards per game on the ground. They will try to do the same to Irish duo Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.
Pick: Under 51.5
(No. 11) SMU at (No. 6) Penn State
- Spread: Penn State -9 (-110)
- Moneyline: SMU +275/Penn State -325
- Over/Under: 53.5
- Time: Saturday, December 21 at 12:00 p.m. ET
An undefeated regular season for the SMU Mustangs came to an end in the ACC championship game, with Dabo Sweeney’s Tigers doing enough to sneak into the playoff themselves with a win.
Though SMU did still deserve a place in the 12-team playoff, its loss to Clemson was a foreboding sign. If the Mustangs, in an incredible season, can’t handle a high-chance game at natural ground against a relatively bad Tigers team, will it do better here?
To play a Nittany Lions team in front of over 100,000 hyped-up Penn State fans, with their talented offense fresh off a brave fight against the Oregon Ducks, seems like a gigantic ask. After such a bright 2024 season, we’d expect a quiet end to SMU’s season at Beaver Stadium.
Pick: Penn State -9 (-110)
(No. 12) Clemson at (No. 5) Texas
- Spread: Texas -11 (-110)
- Moneyline: Clemson +350/Texas -450
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Time: Saturday, December 21 at 4:00 p.m. ET
Thanks to an upset win in the ACC title game and its status in college football after the last decade, Clemson snuck into the CFP bracket. Congrats! Its prize? A date with a loaded and motivated Texas Longhorns team.
The Tigers are already a three-loss team and have rarely looked like a team that will factor into the playoff picture this season, while the Longhorns have been in an intense battle for position all year.
Not only does Texas have the talent edge, but it has played high-chance games all season long. I can’t imagine Clemson matches the Longhorns’ level of play or intensity.
Pick: Texas -11 (-110)
(No. 9) Tennessee at (No. 8) Ohio State
- Spread: Ohio State -7.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Tennessee +235/Ohio State -280
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Time: Saturday, December 21 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Of all the spreads on the board for the first round of the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes getting 7.5 points against the Volunteers is the most surprising. They both finished 10-2, with both of their respective losses coming in-conference. And while Ohio State was one brutal loss away from a likely bye to the quarterfinals, the circumstances of that loss can’t be overstated.
Or, more so, the lasting impact can’t be overstated. Michigan’s win in The Game in Columbus has the chance to completely derail Ohio State. Ryan Day has spent the month with his job being repeatedly questioned, and the fall-out from that loss is far from over.
The Buckeyes are likely too talented to let this one slip, but given the Vols’ talented defense and Columbus’s deflated mood, I’d expect Tennessee to hang around.
Pick: Tennessee +7.5 (-110)
College Football Playoff Predictions Odds FAQ
When do the College Football Playoff games begin?
The first college football game of the opening round of the expanded College Football Playoff comes on Friday night, December 20, at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Indiana Hoosiers will make the short trip to South Bend to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in what promises to be an intense affair.
What is the Best Game on this week?
Credit where it’s due: the first round of the College Football Playoff has brought us a slate that could see four games out of four. There is, however, one that appears to stand well above the rest. In Columbus, Ohio, we’ll see No. 8 Ohio State host No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers in a fantastic matchup. When we last saw the Buckeyes, they were unraveling at the hands of their rivals, the Michigan Wolverines and it’ll be a must-watch to see how they rebound.
How to Make College Football Playoff Picks
Ready to make picks on the first round of the College Football Playoff? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every college football game on the schedule this week and so much more!
