Point spreads are widely used prediction models that aim to level the playing field for underdogs.
Rather than focusing on who will win, the point spread is a framework for determining how many points one team is favored to win by. Not only can this be a great way to make predictions, but the point spread is a tool designed to balance mismatched teams in any given matchup.
- What Is a Point Spread?
- Plus and Minus Numbers Explained
- How Point Spreads Work
- Real World Examples of Point Spreads
- What Does “Covering the Spread” Mean?
- What Happens If the Spread Is Not Covered?
- How Point Spreads Are Created & Adjusted
- What Influences a Point Spread?
- What Does “-110” or Similar Numbers Mean?
- How to Read a Point Spread?
- Point Spreads Across Sports
- Run Lines & Puck Lines Explained
- Common Myths About Point Spreads
- When Point Spreads Are Most Useful
- Final Thoughts: Why Point Spreads Exist in Sports
- FAQs
What Is a Point Spread?
A point spread is the projected margin of victory for any two teams in any given sport. Instead of concluding that one team is better than the other and adjusting the moneyline odds accordingly, the point spread sets a balanced number where both teams have an equal chance to cover the spread.
For example, if one team is -5 on the point spread, that means that the oddsmakers expect them to win by at least five points 50% of the time and win by fewer than five points or lose by any number the other 50% of the time.
- ALSO CHECK OUT: What is an Underdog in Sports?
Plus and Minus Numbers Explained
What Does “+” Mean?
The plus sign (+) indicates that the team is projected to lose the game by that many points. Regardless of what the number is, if there is a plus sign on the point spread, they are the underdog.
However, not all underdogs are built equal. A team with a +3 point spread is projected to lose by a small margin and could potentially pull off an outright upset, while a team with a +12 point spread is projected to lose by a wide margin, making an upset much less likely.
What Does “-” Mean?
The minus sign (-) indicates that the team is projected to win the game by that many points. Just like the plus sign, the bigger the number, the bigger the expected mismatch between the two teams.
A team with a -10 point spread is expected to win by double digits, while a team with a -1 point spread could be in for a very close contest.
How Point Spreads Work
Every matchup in every sport has a favorite and an underdog, and the point spread indicates the expected difference between the two teams. The favorite receives a minus number in an attempt to balance action, while the underdog gets a plus number to encourage potential predictions on the upset.
This allows there to be a reasonable set of odds for both sides, with a reasonable chance that either team can cover the spread.
You will often see point spreads at -6.5 or -9.5 instead of -7 or -10. The use of the half numbers prevents ties on the point spread, better known as a ‘push.’ A team can’t win by exactly -6.5 points, meaning there will always be a winner and a loser on the spread.
Without the half number, a -7 point spread could see the favorite win by exactly seven points, resulting in no against-the-spread winners or losers on that game.
Real World Examples of Point Spreads
Football Example
In the NFL, let’s say the Kansas City Chiefs are -7.5 favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders. This means the oddsmakers expect Kansas City to win by at least 8 points, while also enticing predictors into making a pick on the Raiders and their +7.5 point spread.
If Kansas City were to win the game 30-10, they would cover the spread since they won by more than 7.5 points. However, if the Kansas City Chiefs win 27-23, the Las Vegas Raiders would have covered the spread since the final margin of victory was fewer than 7.5 points.
Basketball Example
In the NBA, the point spreads are often larger, as the final scores are much higher than in the NFL. The same premise can be applied in a potential matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics.
If the Los Angeles Lakers are 4.5-point favorites, they would need to win by at least five points to cover the spread. A 120-116 victory would allow the Celtics to cover the spread, while a 125-110 win would result in the Lakers securing the cover.
Hockey Example
In hockey, the point spreads are far smaller due to the nature of the sport. The point spread, also known as the puck line, is almost always -1.5 for the favorite.
Both sides will not always have -110 odds on either side of the puck line, but it still gives you the chance to make predictions on the margin of victory. If the Colorado Avalanche were the favorites over the Vancouver Canucks, and they only win 3-2, the Canucks will cover the spread.
Overtime and empty-net goals can have a huge impact on the puck line, making the NHL one of the most volatile prediction markets to use the puck line.
What Does “Covering the Spread” Mean?
“Covering the spread” refers to whether or not the final margin of victory meets or exceeds the pregame point spread. It doesn’t always matter if a team wins or loses, as an underdog can lose the game but cover the spread if they keep the final score closer than the point spread indicated.
Alternatively, any defeat for the favorite results in the underdog covering the spread, as the better team often has to win by a significant margin to cover the spread.
What Happens If the Spread Is Not Covered?
If the spread is not covered, it means the team failed to meet pregame expectations. Spreads are predictive tools, not guarantees, as a wide variety of factors can lead to a favorite falling short or an underdog getting blown out.
Late-game scoring for either side, even when the game has already been won or lost, can have minimal impact on the winner but a massive impact on which team covers the spread.
How Point Spreads Are Created & Adjusted
A variety of factors are used to create and adjust point spreads. While there is no single model that can determine a point spread with perfect accuracy, using thousands of data points can allow oddsmakers to find consistent success in creating fair point spreads.
Some of the factors include the following:
- Team Ratings: Oddsmakers assign secret ratings to each team in the league and use the discrepancy in perceived skill to determine the initial point spread. Before the other factors can be taken into account, accurately evaluating the individual teams is the first step in creating a point spread.
- Injuries: If a crucial player is ruled out due to injury, the point spread can be adjusted to better reflect the new team rating for a shorthanded side.
- Public Interest: If there is heavy interest on one side of the point spread, the oddsmakers will adjust the number to encourage an even split of predictions on both sides to balance exposure.
- Home Advantage: Across every sport, the home team wins well over 50% of the time. This is due to atmosphere, travel fatigue, and familiarity with the playing surface.
What Influences a Point Spread?
The point spread is influenced by hundreds of factors, including the team ratings, injuries, public interest, and home advantage.
While some factors have a much greater influence on the spread, others have a smaller influence, such as weather, rest days, coaching styles, pace of play, specific matchups, recent form, momentum, and the importance of the game to the standings.
What Does “-110” or Similar Numbers Mean?
Numbers like -110 or other similar numbers reflect the odds offered on either side of the point spread. Most social sportsbooks offer -110 or -115 odds to counteract the risk they are taking by facilitating your prediction.
A point spread will theoretically have +100 odds on either side, making it crucial to remember that the -110 odds do not mean that that team has a higher than 50% chance of covering the spread, as the odds imply.
- ALSO CHECK OUT: How To Read Sports Odds?
How to Read a Point Spread?
A typical point spread will feature two teams with mirrored numbers attached to their victory. Once you pick which team you are interested in predicting, you must also take into account how many points you are getting or laying in that matchup.
Point Spreads Across Sports
Football
Point spreads in the NFL can be anywhere from -1 to -17, with most games landing in the -3 to -7 point range. Unlike other sports, the NFL’s non-linear scoring system makes certain margins of victory more common than others, which are called ‘key numbers.’
Nearly 15% of NFL games finish with a margin of victory of exactly 3 points, while only 4% of games finish with a 2-point margin of victory.
Basketball
The high-scoring nature of basketball creates large point spreads, leading to double-digit spreads being common.
Baseball (Run Line)
Baseball’s run line is almost always -1.5 for the favorite, regardless of the moneyline odds. This means that both sides won’t typically have -110 odds like in basketball or football, as you could be asked to lay -170 odds on the underdog with a +1.5 run line.
Hockey (Puck Line)
Just like in baseball, hockey uses a -1.5 point spread, commonly called the puck line. Empty net goals can allow the favorite to cover the puck line in a close contest, while the underdog automatically covers the puck line in any overtime game.
Run Lines & Puck Lines Explained
The standardization of puck lines and run lines signifies how many games are decided by a single run or goal and how any team can beat any team on any given night.
In the NBA, -1500 moneylines are common, while the biggest favorites in the MLB or NHL rarely tick over -500 odds. The shorter point spreads signify the unpredictability of the sports, making it even more important to evaluate the odds on the puck line and run line before making a prediction.
Common Myths About Point Spreads
Myth: “They predict the exact score.”
Truth: Point spreads don’t predict the exact score, but rather the margin of victory the favorite will win by 50% of the time.
Myth: “They never change.”
Truth: Point spreads are constantly changing as more information is gathered for an upcoming matchup. Injuries, weather shifts, or public interest can dramatically alter a point spread from the opening line.
Myth: “Favorites always win.”
Truth: Regardless of how large a point spread may be, an upset is always possible. The point spread reflects the projected margin of victory, not a guarantee of the victor.
When Point Spreads Are Most Useful
Point spreads are most useful when mismatched teams collide. A -1000/+700 moneyline is not very good for making predictions on, as the favorite will win a large majority of the time.
The point spread allows for there to be fair and competitive live sports odds on both teams, regardless of how one-sided the matchup is expected to be.
Final Thoughts: Why Point Spreads Exist in Sports
Point spreads exist to create a competitive balance for predictions on any matchup. Not only do they reflect which team is expected to win, but the quantitative nature of the spreads also accurately reflects how much one team is expected to win by.
They create context, give predictors new markets to attack, and can instantly let casual fans know what is expected to happen in any given matchup.
FAQs
What is a point spread in sports?
A point spread is the expected margin of victory between two teams. It helps balance predictions between the favorite and the underdog.
What do the plus (+) and minus (−) numbers mean?
The minus number shows the favorite expected to win, while the plus number represents the underdog expected to lose by that margin.
What does covering the spread mean?
Covering the spread means the final score meets or exceeds the predicted margin set by the point spread.
Why do point spreads change?
Point spreads change because of injuries, team news, public interest, and other factors that affect expectations for the game.
Are point spreads used in all sports?
Yes. Point spreads are used in sports like football, basketball, hockey, and baseball to compare teams and estimate the margin of victory.
