What Is an Underdog in Sports? Meaning & Examples

Q: How can you identify an underdog?

Underdogs are typically teams with weaker records, lower rankings, or less public support compared to their opponent.

Q: Can an underdog win a game?

Yes. Underdogs win games regularly in sports and often create memorable upsets.

In nearly every sporting event, one team enters the game with higher expectations than the other. This can be due to recent form, home advantage, opposing injuries, or simply a general skill gap between the two sides.

While most games have a clear favorite, the team expected to win, nothing is guaranteed in the sporting world.

In steps the underdog.

The underdog is the opposing team that is expected to lose based on several factors before each game. Understanding what makes a good underdog, when to take the underdog in your predictions, and what to look for in the odds is one of the many tools that can allow you to come out on top.

What Does Underdog Mean?

An underdog is the team that is expected to lose a matchup. This can be due to a variety of factors, but on paper, the other team is expected to come out on top. The underdog will have more attractive odds attached to their victory, as they are seen as the side less likely to win.

How to Identify the Underdog in a Matchup

You do not need up-to-date odds to identify the underdog, as there are several easy-to-spot factors that can help you determine which side is the underdog.

Public perception on general talent is the driving force deciding which team is the underdog. Whether that be due to the current standings or previous seasons, the team with the better record is usually the favorite, while the lower-seeded team is the underdog.

Recent performances can also play a role. Even if one team is marginally ahead in the standings, if the lower-ranked side is on a hot streak, the higher-ranked team may be the underdog in that matchup.

In the same vein, injuries play a huge role. If a star or key player is hurt for the perceived favorite, the odds may flip to make the other side an underdog. A star quarterback’s unavailability can instantly flip which team is seen as the underdog.

Underdog vs. Favorite: What’s the Difference?

The favorite is the team expected to win, while the underdog is the team expected to lose. One side will become favored due to recent form, public perception, and up-to-date injury reports, making the other side the underdog.

Underdog Examples in Sports

NBA Example

A young team in the midst of a rebuild facing a championship contender is a daily occurrence in the NBA. While the moneyline odds can be extreme in the NBA, even the mightiest rosters can be beaten on any given night.

The three-point shot allows for extra variance in the NBA, and a hot shooting night from a team of prospects can allow an underdog to pull off a big upset.

NFL Example

In the NFL, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will win more often than they lose, but they are still not immune to upsets.

Turnovers play a massive role in the NFL, as a few game-changing plays by the defense can immediately flip the script. If the offense can pair that with some explosive plays, the underdog will always have a chance to prevail.

Soccer Example

The low-scoring nature of soccer has allowed for some of the greatest upsets of all time. A strong defensive structure combined with a single well-timed counterattack can lead to a relative minnow taking down a European giant. Even if they get dominated, if the underdog can hold strong in defense, an upset is always possible.

NHL Example

There are few positions across sports more impactful than an NHL goaltender. Even if one team is creating high-quality scoring chances, a sharp goalie can keep any underdog in the game.

Compared to the NFL or NBA, the NHL is still a low-scoring sport, and a couple of bounces can allow the underdog to win. The moneyline odds for any team on any given night are rarely higher than +400, indicating that ‘puck luck’ isn’t a term of the past.

ALSO CHECK OUT: How Point Spreads Work

Can Underdogs Still Win?

The short answer is absolutely. The magic of sports is that anything can happen on any given night, and there have been countless underdogs who pulled off miraculous wins in the past.

Even the strongest teams in the league have their off days, which will ensure the underdog always has a chance to win, no matter how daunting it may seem. Random factors such as game-altering turnovers, referee decisions, and in-game injuries can flip the script for the underdog at a moment’s notice.

Why Underdogs Are So Popular With Fans

Underdogs resonate emotionally with fans, which can create memorable victories for the perceived weaker sides. The storytelling of a classic ‘Cinderella Story’ is irresistible, and the added surprise factor can captivate audiences.

If Tom Brady wins another Super Bowl, no one would be surprised, but an underdog like Blake Bortles going to the AFC Championship game can define sports history.

Different Types of Underdogs

Close Underdogs

Close underdogs are when the game is expected to be tight, but one team has a slight edge. For example, many playoff games feature two top teams facing off, each with its strengths and weaknesses, but one team is perceived as slightly stronger.

The game could realistically go either way, but the odds will almost always still slightly favor one side.

Heavy Underdogs

Heavy underdogs are teams that have been given little chance to pull off the upset. Whether it be due to injuries, a recent losing streak, or simply a large talent gap, heavy underdogs have very limited expectations of pulling off the upset.

Live Underdogs (During the Game)

Sometimes, momentum can shift during the game, creating a live underdog. This is often a favorite that falls behind early, creating new prediction opportunities on the live sport odds.

What Increases an Underdog’s Chances to Win?

There are several advantages that increase an underdog’s chances of winning, but the most overlooked is the home crowd.

Depending on the sport, the home team wins between 55% and 75% of matchups, regardless of which two teams are playing. Every team plays the same number of home and away games in a season, and underdogs often rally around the home crowd to pull off big upsets.

Injuries or coaching strategies can also flip the script for the underdog, but the best thing to look for when making underdog picks is a home team.

Common Myths About Underdogs

There are common myths about underdogs that have been thrown around for decades. Every event is unique, and you can never be 100% sure about the outcome before the game gets underway.

They Never Win: Underdogs lose more often than they win, but upsets are a regular part of every season in every sport.
They Always Surprise: Underdog upsets are memorable, which can lead people to think they happen more often than they do. Most of the time, the favorite will win, and the underdog will lose.
They Have Nothing To Lose: Every time a professional athlete competes, they are fighting for future contracts and their professional pride. Every professional sport you watch features athletes who have spent thousands of hours mastering their craft, and they do not want to lose under any circumstances.

Underdogs Across Different Sports

Underdogs can appear differently depending on the sport. In the NBA, schedule fatigue and star player injuries can alter the public perception. Weather and turnovers can play a huge role in the NFL, while the NHL has seen countless underdogs pull off upsets thanks to hot goaltenders.

Should You Root for the Underdog?

From a fan perspective, rooting for the underdog can be an exhilarating roller coaster. You have to be prepared to lose more often than you win, but correctly predicting an underdog victory is one of the best feelings in sports.

ALSO CATCH: How to Read Sports Odds

Final Thoughts: Why Underdogs Matter in Sports

Underdogs are the heart and soul of sports. The unpredictable nature of every matchup is why billions of people watch sports, and it is a good reminder that the game is not decided on paper.

The multitude of statistics has created a false sense of confidence when predicting sports, and underdog victories are a good reminder that anything can happen. The uncertainty, drama, and intrigue are what keep the same sports compelling year after year.

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