The NCAA basketball tournament is commonly known as March Madness, and there’s a reason for this. Every March, there’s a raft of upsets in the competition, making it one of the most exciting events on the planet. We’ve looked closely at some of the biggest upsets of the past and what you can expect from this year’s tournament.
Biggest March Madness Upsets
Every year, popular upset picks for March Madness emerge, and the competition still offers some incredible surprises. We’ve found some of the biggest upsets, so viewers know what to expect from the 2024 edition.
| Underdog | Favorite | Score | Year |
| Farleigh Dickinson | Purdue | 63-58 | 2023 |
| UMBC | Virginia | 74-54 | 2018 |
| Lehigh | Duke | 75-70 | 2012 |
| Santa Clara | Arizona | 64-61 | 1993 |
| Saint Peter’s | Purdue | 67-64 | 2022 |
Farleigh Dickinson Over Purdue
This is arguably the biggest upset in the history of the NCAA tournament, and no one would have included it in their March Madness upset picks. Farleigh Dickinson went into this game as a number 16 seed, with Purdue as a number 1 seed. Nobody expected anything other than a Purdue win, but the Knights had other ideas. Although it wasn’t the first 16-seed upset, Farleigh Dickinson was the 68th-ranked team in the contest, making it the biggest overall upset ever.
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UMBC Over Virginia
As the first 16 seed to beat a 1 seed, there’s an argument for this to be the most significant upset ever. However, UMBC wasn’t the 68th-ranked team, meaning it’s not as big a shock as the Farleigh Dickinson win. What makes this game stand out even more is the score. UMBC won by 20 points, thoroughly humiliating Virginia.
Lehigh Over Duke
Duke has a long history of being a powerhouse in March Madness, but in 2012, Lehigh showed it counts for nothing. What makes this game so impressive is the Duke roster had eight players who went on to play in the NBA, meaning there was plenty of quality on show. It wasn’t quite a 16 to 1 upset, but 15 to 2 is still impressive.
Santa Clara Over Arizona
Similar to the Duke upset, Arizona’s roster included six players who would make it to the NBA. Santa Clara took no notice of the gap between the two teams and snuck past them by three points. It’s one of the older upsets on this list, but it was still a monumental occasion.
Saint Peter’s Over Purdue
This game stands out from the others because it’s not from the first round. Saint Peter’s was the 15th seed, and Purdue was the third seed. It made history because Saint Peter’s became the first team to progress to the Elite Eight from a 15th-seed position. It’s definitely not one of the predicted March Madness upsets before the tournament.
Current March Madness Schedule
Making NCAA tournament upset predictions isn’t an exact science. Because the NCAA still needs to set the brackets, we can’t give precise thoughts on where the upsets are most likely. The schedule will be set on March 17th, Selection Sunday, so you can look at what’s possible when that draws closer.
We will cover all available games at Sportzino so players can make predictions based on their data once the matchups appear. To have a slight headstart on the NCAA schedulers, we’ve compiled a range of tips to help our members make their March Madness upset picks.
Common March Madness Upsets
While there are no common upsets regarding specific teams, regular upsets link to seed rankings. By considering these aspects, players can get a headstart on what they think they will choose for their upset picks.
#12 Over #5
This is the most famous upset people talk about. Although it’s not the most common, there’s an average of more than one 12 to 5 upsets a year, so players must look into which offers the best chance of taking place.
#10 Over #7
This is statistically the best upset to look for. We’re not counting 9 to 8 as an upset, as they’re essentially in the same position. Almost 40% of the time, the 10th seed prevails over the 7th. As a result, it provides an excellent opportunity for players to get a reasonable success rate for predicting upsets.
Picks to Avoid
Of course, there are improbable upsets. While they are possible, as every potential first-round upset has occurred, it’s still best to avoid them.
#16 Over #1
Although we mentioned two of these games as upsets earlier, they’re the only times in history it’s happened. It’s unlikely to see a 16th-seed team beat a top-seeded team. We’re not saying it will never happen again; it’s just that to make safe picks, it’s best to avoid this choice.
Avoid Teams on a Losing Streak
Part of claiming an upset is taking solid form into the tournament. A team with a low seeding and a poor run of form is unlikely to cause an upset. Watch for teams in a slump when setting up your NCAA bracket upset predictions.
Teams with Injury Troubles
Injuries are part of sports, and they impact results. So, when making upset predictions, look closely at rosters to ensure your chosen team has a full-strength squad.
Potential Bracket Upsets
We don’t have the full schedule yet. So, we’ve evaluated the current standings and seedings to create what we think is the most likely bracket and where players can find upsets.
It’s critical to understand that these picks are not guaranteed, as things can still change between now and March 17th. However, as of publication, these games look likely to take place.
McNeese Over Auburn
Auburn currently looks like taking a 5th seed going into March Madness, while McNeese is likely to claim a 12th seed position. However, Auburn’s form is sketchy. They are 4-3 in their last seven games and 3-2 in their previous five. McNeese is 5-0 and goes into the tournament in good form. If this game takes place, it’s prime for an upset.
Oklahoma Over Dayton
The two teams are in strange form. Dayton looks like taking the 7th seed position, and Oklahoma is on course for 10th. Both are still trying to get a run of wins together, which makes them perfect upset picks.
UC Irvine Over Alabama
This is the riskiest pick so far. Alabama is on course for the fourth seed, with UC Irvine likely to take the 13th spot. However, Alabama has lost its last two games, moving it down from a third-seed position. In contrast, UC Irvine has won its previous three games, and they have plenty of confidence going into March Madness.
Richmond Over Clemson
Over the last six games, Richmond is 6-0, and Clemson is 4-2. As a result, Clemson has dropped from fourth to fifth seed. It gives Richmond a good chance of pulling off the famous 12 to 5 upset, so it’s an excellent upset pick.
Where to Make Your March Madness Predictions
If you’re looking for an excellent selection of markets and prediction options, Sportzino is the place to be. We have a fantastic range of NCAA Tournament options, making it simple for players to find the most suitable picks.
Using our guide, you can discover the best options and aim for your most successful bracket. At Sportzino, we work hard to give our members access to the most comprehensive prediction choices. If you want to enjoy your bracket, here’s the right place to do it.
