NBA Finals Game 4 Predictions

The Indiana Pacers will not be easily dismissed. This team has been a heavy underdog in their last three playoff series, and they are now two wins away from an unlikely NBA championship. Their Game 3 victory was beyond impressive, yet the NBA odds have shifted in favor of the Oklahoma City Thunder for your NBA Finals Game 4 predictions. Benedict Mathurin was the hero in Game 3, as his 27 points propelled the Pacers to a 116-107 victory. Indiana’s ten-man rotation kept their legs fresh, and the Pacers did a fantastic job at shutting down the seemingly unstoppable Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

Now that Game 3 is behind us, it is time to look ahead at the NBA Finals Game 4 predictions for Pacers vs Thunder. This is proving to be a much tighter series than the oddsmakers expected, and another close game is on the cards at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Can the Pacers take a stranglehold on this series with a 3-1 lead, or will the Thunder reclaim home-court advantage before heading home for Game 5? 

Matchup: Pacers vs Thunder Overview

• Teams: Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Wednesday, June 11th, 2025
• Time: Tip-off is at 8:30 PM EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana

check out our full 2025 NBA Finals Prediction analysis

NBA Finals Game 4 Odds

The NBA Finals Game 4 odds favor the Oklahoma City Thunder to win by six or more points. This is shocking as the Thunder have yet to win a road playoff game by more than 6 points this season, and have gone just 4-4 straight up away from home. The Indiana Pacers have been consistently undervalued in the basketball odds throughout the playoffs, so they are accustomed to playing in the underdog role and will not mind what appears to be an uphill battle. Regarding the total points, the 225.5 line is the lowest we have seen in this series, as the NBA odds expect a low-scoring, defensive battle in Game 4. 

Win Probabilities:

The NBA win probabilities still favor the Oklahoma City Thunder despite their series deficit and the fact that the Pacers have home-court advantage. The Thunder have a 70.05% chance of winning this NBA game, while the Indiana Pacers have been given just a 29.95% chance of doing so. 

Projected Final Score:

The projected final score for Game 4 of the NBA Finals has been calculated using insights from recent NBA games, combined with expert NBA picks and predictions. For this pivotal Friday night showdown, the projected final score is Oklahoma City Thunder 113-111 Indiana Pacers. 

Expert Prediction: Who Wins? 

Why the Indiana Pacers Could Win Game 4

The scoring depth for the Pacers has been the real difference maker in this series. Oklahoma City also has a deep bench, but most of their reserve players are in the rotation for defensive purposes rather than offensive sparks off the bench. Benedict Mathurin led the way for the Pacers with 27 points off the bench in Game 3, while T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin also combined for 18 points off the bench. As a team, the Thunder only scored 18 bench points in Game 3, which will allow the Pacers to pull away once again. Indiana is changing what the blueprint for a dominant NBA team looks like, as their energy, scoring, and incredible depth are exactly what is needed to become an NBA champion. 

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Could Win Game 4

It is not time to count out the Thunder. Oklahoma City remains one of, if not the best, teams in the league, and they will not be deterred by the 2-1 hole they face. They came out and answered in a big way with a dominant Game 2 win, and another strong response is expected for Friday night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was unable to make the offensive impact the world has come to expect from him, and the lack of bench scoring has been the nail in the coffin for Oklahoma City this series. The Thunder have a stronger starting five compared to Indiana, so if their bench unit can match the production of the Pacers, this will be their game to lose.  

check out our full NBA Finals Game 3 Predictions analysis

NBA Finals Game 4 Predictions

The Thunder are still massive favorites in Indiana, and it is hard to envision this team picking up the win, let alone covering the spread. The Thunder have yet to cover a six-point spread on the road this postseason, and they haven’t shown the ability to win in the clutch against the Pacers. Unless Oklahoma City can build a 20+ point lead in Game 4 of the NBA Finals, it will be the Indiana Pacers that go on to win this game. The clutch play from Tyrese Haliburton cannot be overemphasized, and all the value is on the +185 moneyline over the spread. Oklahoma City hasn’t been able to close out games, and when the lights shine brightest, they have failed to step up. Take the Pacers’ moneyline at long odds as your top Pacers vs Thunder prediction for this matchup. 

Prediction: Indiana Pacers to win by 4 points. Take the Indiana Pacers moneyline at +185 odds. 

How to Make NBA Finals Game 4 Picks

The best place to make NBA Finals Game 4 picks is on Sportzino. The countless options for your NBA predictions available make Sportzino the clear choice, as you can make free NBA Finals predictions on spreads, totals, moneylines, and player props. Not only that, but you can also make free picks on the future for this series, including who will end up winning the NBA championship.