A pair of teams in the thick of a wild Western Conference playoff race will collide on Friday night at altitude as the Memphis Grizzlies travel to Colorado to face the Denver Nuggets.
The Grizzlies recently came out the other side of late-season dramatics and malaise to rip off three straight wins, as they look to rise out of the West’s play-in tournament. However, they find themselves in a tough spot tonight as they’ll face Denver on the second night of a back-to-back after hosting the Timberwolves on Thursday night.
The Nuggets, for their part, find themselves in a nearly identical situation to Memphis. Late-season struggles and drama have turned Denver’s season upside down, with a brief conference superpower now at risk of dropping into the play-in tournament itself.
With a crucial Western Conference battle on the slate this Friday at Mile High, check out our Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for April 11 at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets Overview
Teams: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets
Date: Friday, April 11, 2025
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Ball Arena
Win Probabilities
The NBA win probabilities have been generated using insights from recent NBA games in combination with expert NBA picks and predictions. The Memphis Grizzlies snapped a four-game losing skid with three straight wins and have been given a chance to win this NBA game. Meanwhile, according to the NBA win probabilities, the Denver Nuggets have endured a stunning week of change and also have a chance.
Projected Final Score
The projected final score anticipates a close game in Colorado, with the Denver Nuggets to prevail with a final score of Denver Nuggets 116-108 Memphis Grizzlies.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
As one of five teams vying for seeds four through eight in the Western Conference, the Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets are tied together as the regular season heads toward a dramatic conclusion. Yet, the two franchises have found even more common ground under stunning circumstances.
It was a shock across the NBA when the Grizzlies fired head coach Taylor Jenkins at the end of March. Jenkins had long-term staying power in Memphis, and though the team was struggling, it was comfortably headed for a top-eight finish.
Jenkins’s firing, however, was just the warm-up for one of the craziest mid-season firings in NBA history. With just four games left, the Nuggets parted ways with Michael Malone. Malone had been in Denver for nearly a decade and was less than two years removed from winning a championship with the Nuggets.
Though both decisions were steeped in off-court drama, they were also made in an effort to save seasons quickly slipping away. Now, the Nuggets and Grizzlies will square off with huge playoff implications, with the clouds of their departed coaches hanging over them—setting up a fascinating matchup.
Why the Memphis Grizzlies Can Cover
A driving force in the Grizzlies’ decision to fire Taylor Jenkins was to re-empower Ja Morant as the team’s main ball-handler and initiator. Whether that was the correct decision or not, it will enable Memphis to find a considerable edge in this matchup.
With Morant’s ability to get downhill and attack the basket, the Grizzlies get a ton of production, offensively, inside the paint. The Grizzlies average the second-most points in the paint per game 55.1.
Morant, a 23-point-per-game scorer, takes nearly 55% of his attempts from inside 10 feet while also feeding teammates in the pick-and-roll and on dump offs from inside. As both a finisher and creator, Morant’s ability to get to the rim is the lifeblood of Memphis’s offense, and it has been reinvigorated.
The timing couldn’t be better, with the Nuggets’ opponent unable to defend the paint. With the exception of Aaron Gordon, Denver lacks perimeter defenders competent enough to provide resistance on the ball. Though Peyton Watson has re-entered the rotation, his impact is best felt off the ball.
That inability to defend the perimeter compounds Nikola Jokic’s weaknesses as a defensive anchor. The marvelous MVP is a competent defender but lacks the foot speed, length, and verticality to defend the rim. The result is a Nuggets defense that allows the sixth-most paint points per game, at 50.5.
Provided the Grizzlies don’t have tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back, they should be able to exploit Denver’s defensive weakness repeatedly and hang around in a massive matchup.
Why the Denver Nuggets Can Cover
There are two simple reasons for believing the Nuggets can cover this spot.
The first is the benefit of the schedule spot. After playing in Sacramento on Wednesday night, the Nuggets were off on Thursday and will have home-court advantage against the Grizzlies.
On the flip side, Memphis has to deal with a 24-hour turnaround from hosting the Wolves in a brutal scrap, then get on a plane and make the trip to Denver for the second half of its back-to-back. It’s too late in the season for a schedule loss to be an excuse, but it’s a detriment to the Grizzlies’ chances.
The second reason – which holds true game-in, game-out – is simply Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets have the best player in the world to count on in a crucial game. In the Nuggets’ win over the Kings on Wednesday, the first after Michael Malone was fired, Jokic put in a typical MVP-level performance. Joker finished with 20 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists, and four steals in an eight-point win.
Going back to Denver’s wild double-overtime loss to the Wolves last week, in which Jokic had a 60-point triple double, the three-time MVP gives his team a chance in any contest.
How to Make Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets Picks
Ready to make picks on the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets matchup on Friday, April 11? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend and so much more!
