Just a few short years ago, the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns were both on the upswing and met in a hugely entertaining first round playoff series.
Due to injuries and questionable team-building decisions, neither the Suns nor the Pelicans have progressed from their current state. Instead, the two have suffered through incredibly frustrating 2024-25 seasons.
Phoenix is, at least, fighting for a spot in the Western Conference’s play-in tournament. With two spots and three teams, the Suns cannot afford to drop games to lesser opponents.
New Orleans is exactly that, especially after a trade deadline that saw it deal Brandon Ingram. Zion Williamson and company sit at the bottom of the Western Conference and appear headed to a bottom four spot in the NBA – and the best lottery odds for June’s NBA Draft, where the prize is Cooper Flagg.
With a Western Conference battle on the schedule this Thursday in the desert, check out our New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns predictions, including our NBA expert picks, with tip set for February 27 at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup New Orleans Pelicans vs Phoenix Suns Overview
Teams: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns
Date: Thursday, February 27, 2025
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Footprint Center
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Phoenix Suns is the Phoenix Suns.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Phoenix Suns 105-92 New Orleans Pelicans.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
The slate of injuries the New Orleans Pelicans faced from the 2024-25 NBA season offset put their season into jeopardy. The Western Conference is an unforgiving landscape, and starting with such a disadvantage is a brutal place to come back from. As the Pels dealt with injuries to Dejounte Murray, Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and Herb Jones, they watched their chances at a postseason berth slip away.
With setback after setback — including season-ending injuries to both Jones and Murray — New Orleans made the decision to effectively pull the plug, sending pending free agent Brandon Ingram out of town ahead of February’s trade deadline.
Now, with the Pelicans playing for lottery odds rather than playoff chances, games like Thursday’s are about being a spoiler. However, their opponent in the desert on Thursday has done well enough to spoil themselves.
The Phoenix Suns are as all-in as any team in the NBA and more. They are the definition of over-indexed, with every chip and then some in the middle of the table. Despite that, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and company are a game back from a play-in spot and recently lost to the 40-loss Toronto Raptors.
It’s past go time for the Suns at this point, but they continue to play with fire. Back home and hosting a lowly Pelicans team, Phoenix cannot afford to lose this matchup.
Why the New Orleans Pelicans Can Cover
Even amidst an ever-changing rotation and injuries to glue-guy starters in Dejounte Murray and Herb Jones, the New Orleans Pelicans have held on to one staple of their offensive production. Naturally, with the bouncy Zion Williamson leading the way, the Pelicans absolutely feast off of turnovers and in transition.
During the season, New Orleans is ranked at a low 26th in offensive rating. Yet, if the game were played entirely in transition, it would be sitting considerably more comfortably. The Pelicans are ninth in the NBA in fast break points, cashing in an average of 16.6 points per game in transition.
The combination of players like Trey Murphy III, Jose Alverado, and Bruce Brown, who can create turnovers defensively, with players like Williamson and CJ McCollum, who can pay that off offensively, has built a sustainable method of offense in New Orleans.
As a poor shooting team – the Pelicans currently rank 26th in true shooting percentage and 26th in effective field goal percentage – an absence of opponent turnovers can kill their chance at decent offense. No such worry will exist against Phoenix.
With sloppy initiators like Devin Booker and Bradley Beal at the helm of the Suns’ offense, turnovers have been a constant. The Suns allow the sixth most fast break points per game, at 16.9, despite holding on to a turnover rate around the league average, at 14.0 per game.
In a vacuum, the Pelicans can’t hang on a possession by possession basis against the Suns. With the benefit of Phoenix’s sloppy offense and the extra possessions it will create for the Pelicans, however, it is a different story. If New Orleans can capitalize on Phoenix’s weak spot, it’ll hang around and potentially play spoiler.
Why the Phoenix Suns Can Cover
While the New Orleans Pelicans need to rely on opponent turnovers to try and keep pace with even the most middling offenses, no such issue exists for the Phoenix Suns. Though they are multiple games below .500 on the year, the Suns’ success has been powered by an offense that, at its best, can outscore any team in the league.
Phoenix may not even need its best out of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and company on Thursday as it heads into a matchup with a considerable gap between the two offenses.
On the season, the Suns are 10th in offensive rating, while the Pelicans sit in the bottom five at 26th overall. Phoenix creates the sixth-highest percentage of its offense through three pointers, at 41.8 points per game, while New Orleans is again in the bottom five at 36.8.
Most crucial of all is that the Pels haven’t defended the three point line well. Opponents make 36.5% of their shots from deep against New Orleans – a top 10 mark in the league – without Herb Jones or Dejounte Murray, that task becomes even tougher.
As has been the case throughout the 2024-25 season, the Suns’ path to victory is all about out-gunning their opponents.
How to Make New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Picks
Ready to make picks on the New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns matchup on Thursday, February 27? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NBA game on the slate this weekend and so much more!
