High Point pulled off one of, if not the, biggest upsets of the first round with their win over No. 5 Wisconsin. The No. 12 seed now faces off against No. 4 Arkansas, with a spot in the Sweet Sixteen on the line. This will be a track meet, as both teams love to push the pace and get out in transition, and both struggle with their own transition defense.
The total points at 169.5 imply this will be a high-scoring contest, and it is hard to argue with that number. Arkansas made it look easy against Hawaii in the first round, but they cannot afford to overlook the red-hot High Point, which is riding a 15-game win streak.
Will High Point pull off another upset, or will Arkansas end the Cinderella story that is just getting started?
- Matchup: High Point vs Arkansas Overview
- Win Probabilities
- Projected Final Score
- Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
- Current High Point vs Arkansas Game Outlook
- How to Make Your High Point vs Arkansas Picks
- High Point Recent Trends
- High Point Recent Stats
- High Point Leaders
- High Point Player Performance Projections
- Arkansas Recent Trends
- Arkansas Recent Stats
- Arkansas Leaders
- Arkansas Player Performance Projections
- Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
- Final Prediction Summary
Matchup: High Point vs Arkansas Overview
- Date: Saturday, March 21st, 2026
- Time: Tip-off is at 9:45 PM EST
- Venue: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
Win Probabilities
- Arkansas: 79.4%
- High Point: 21.6%
High Point pulled off the big upset before, and they will have to do it again if they hope to beat Arkansas with a mere 21.6% chance of winning, according to the win probabilities. Arkansas has a pair of elite shooters who High Point will struggle to slow down, likely leading to their demise.
Projected Final Score
Arkansas 92-81 High Point
High Point may have the better record, but Arkansas’s dominant regular season against tough opponents will allow it to run up the score against High Point.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why High Point Can Win
High Point has all the momentum heading into the tournament, riding a massive win streak. They proved their credentials with a one-point victory over Wisconsin and are now looking to reach the Sweet Sixteen with another upset. There has been plenty of criticism about High Point’s strength of schedule, but the reality is that they kept winning against whoever was in front of them.
High Point relies on active, hands-on defense to succeed. They aren’t imposing enough to dominate the paint, but they make up for it with their guard play on the perimeter. Arkansas isn’t the type of team to dominate on the inside, so if High Point can force low-percentage shots from their opposition, they will have a real shot at pulling off this upset.
Why Arkansas Can Win
While High Point’s win over Wisconsin was impressive, Arkansas has been in the trenches with some of the best basketball teams in the nation all season long. They swept the SEC tournament against three strong teams and then made it look easy against Hawaii. Their high field goal percentage is a nightmare matchup for High Point, as Arkansas’s ability to hit difficult jumpers is hard to eliminate.
There is no doubt that they have the advantage on the offensive end, but their March Madness hopes will rest on their defense. Outscoring poor defense is a good strategy against weak teams, but that doesn’t work against the best of the best.
If Arkansas is serious about making a deep run this year, emphasizing their defensive play against High Point is non-negotiable. Their scoring isn’t an issue, so unless they let High Point get hot from three-point land, this is their game to lose, which is why this matchup is drawing attention in sports news.
Current High Point vs Arkansas Game Outlook
Arkansas is a wide favorite to knock off High Point, which is not surprising given their seed discrepancy. However, High Point pulled off the upset as a +10.5-point underdog already this tournament, and with similar odds in this one, they will feel confident they can do so again.
How to Make Your High Point vs Arkansas Picks
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High Point Recent Trends
High Point cruises into March Madness after losing only four games all season and none of their last 15 games. While the win streak is impressive, the lack of quality opposition means they are only 4-6 against the spread in their last ten games.
However, their low seed in the March Madness tournament didn’t stop them from picking up a first-round win, upsetting Wisconsin as 10.5-point underdogs. They were active on defense, hit the clutch shots they needed to, and got the second-half stops to claw back for a win.
High Point Recent Stats
High Point’s lack of quality opposition has allowed them to inflate their stats this season. They have the 3rd-best offensive rating with the 20th-best defensive rating, routinely blowing teams out all season long.
Their top statistic is on the defensive end, where they led the entire country with 10.7 steals per game. They haven’t been able to follow that up with discipline in the paint, allowing an above-average number of offensive rebounds despite their inflated defensive stats.
High Point Leaders
- Points: Terry Anderson (16.0)
- Rebounds: Cam’ron Fletcher (7.1)
- Assists: Rob Martin (3.9)
- Steals: Rob Martin (1.5)
High Point Player Performance Projections
High Point has taken advantage of its soft schedule by using its deep bench, but that will not be the case against Arkansas. Their best players all logged 30+ minutes in round one, with Anderson, Martin, and Fletcher all posting double-doubles.
Martin was impossible to slow down, leading the team with 23 points, 10 assists, and a pair of blocks. Arkansas will dial in on him defensively, so look for Anderson to have a strong night as he takes over as the leading scorer for High Point. He was limited to 15 points and 1-for-6 from deep against Wisconsin and will have a much larger role to play in this matchup, which is a key part of this basketball prediction.
Arkansas Recent Trends
Arkansas closed out the season with three SEC tournament wins over Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt to earn the No. 3 seed in the March Madness tournament. While they have gone 5-0 in their last five games, they have only gone 3-2 against the spread, as they failed to cover in two of their victories.
In the first round of March Madness, Arkansas made it look easy against No. 14 Hawaii, winning by 19 points in a lopsided 97-78 victory. Their offense came to life and is poised for another big game against High Point, making them worth a close look on the NCAAB odds board.
Arkansas Recent Stats
Arkansas plays at the 23rd fastest pace with the 3rd highest PPG this season. Their willingness to push the basketball up the floor has been apparent, and easy transition points are a great way to bolster their offense. They have the 14th-best three-point percentage in the nation but only sink the 143rd-most triples, as they prefer to drive the ball on the inside for easier shots.
Their defense needs improvement at 234th in the country, emphasized by their 78 points allowed to lowly Hawaii. They have been able to outscore their defensive issues in the past, allowing 75+ points in six straight games, while claiming victory in all of those matchups, which is important context when looking at basketball odds and lines.
Arkansas Leaders
- Points: Darius Acoff Jr. (23.0)
- Rebounds: Trevon Brazile (7.4)
- Assists: Darius Acoff Jr. (6.6)
- Steals: Trevon Brazile (1.6)
Arkansas Player Performance Projections
Arkansas will look to take advantage of a poor High Point defense with another scoring outburst in March Madness. Darius Acoff Jr. shoulders a bulk of the offensive workload for Arkansas, as he leads the team in both PPG and assists. He is an elite three-point shooter with great shot selection but will not hesitate to play facilitator if that’s what his team needs.
In the rebounding department, High Point is strong on the glass, which means it will take a team effort to control the paint. Trevon Brazile leads the team with 7.4 rebounds per game, but look for Malique Ewin and his 5.5 rebounds to also get involved on the glass on both ends of the floor.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
The deciding factor in this one is how High Point looks on defense. Both sides have fluid offenses, but Arkansas has proven its mettle with passable defensive showings against legitimate contenders. They haven’t been shut down, but they have still looked much better than High Point up to this stage.
Arkansas is expected to approach 100 points scored in the second round, and it will be up to High Point to slow them down. Arkansas’s Darius Acoff Jr. is a hard man to stop, as he doesn’t rely on getting hot from deep to find success. His drives into the paint can finish with him scoring or dishing it off to his teammates, as he almost always makes the right choice in crowded areas.
For High Point, they sank 15 threes against Wisconsin and will rely on the deep ball to potentially pull off another historic upset, which is why the March Madness odds and lines for this game are so compelling.
Final Prediction Summary
High Point has been overlooked before, but expecting a second straight upset is unrealistic. There will be Cinderella stories in this tournament, but not everyone will develop into more than a one-and-done scenario.
Arkansas can match High Point’s fast-paced offense, and its edge in shooting percentages will allow it to eventually pull away. A three-point barrage could keep it close, but more often than not, Arkansas holds on for a double-digit win.
Final Score: Arkansas 92-81 High Point
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