Iowa and Nebraska have both defied the odds to reach the Sweet Sixteen, but only one of these two can reach the Elite Eight. No. 9 Iowa pulled off a small upset over No. 8 Clemson in the first round before upsetting No. 1 Florida in the second round. They edged out the Gators 73-72, overcoming their defensive issues to pull off the stunning victory.
Nebraska’s route to the Sweet Sixteen was far more straightforward. They made quick work of No. 12 Troy in the first round before knocking off No. 5 Vanderbilt in the second round. Nebraska used its swarming defense to find success and will deploy a similar game plan against Iowa’s fluid offense.
These two teams matched up three weeks ago in the regular season, with Nebraska pulling off an 84-75 overtime victory after a frantic second-half comeback from Iowa. Nebraska was able to effectively carve apart the Iowa defense, but the Hawkeyes now have multiple upset wins under their belt since that defeat.
A spot in the Elite Eight is on the line for these two Midwestern schools, but only one will advance while the other will be eliminated from March Madness at this stage of the tournament.
- Matchup: Iowa vs Nebraska Overview
- Win Probabilities
- Projected Final Score
- Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
- Current Iowa vs Nebraska Game Outlook
- How to Make Your Iowa vs Nebraska Picks
- Iowa Recent Trends
- Iowa Recent Stats
- Iowa Leaders
- Iowa Player Performance Projections
- Nebraska Recent Trends
- Nebraska Recent Stats
- Nebraska Leaders
- Nebraska Player Performance Projections
- Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
- Final Prediction Summary
Matchup: Iowa vs Nebraska Overview
- Date: Thursday, March 26th, 2026
- Time: Tip-off is at 7:30 PM EST
- Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Win Probabilities
- Nebraska: 53.1%
- Iowa: 46.9%
Despite Iowa already pulling off the biggest upset of the tournament, it is still slightly behind in the win probabilities. Nebraska’s consistent defense has given them the edge, but Iowa’s electric offense will keep them within striking distance down to the final minutes. Iowa pulled off a frantic comeback last time these two met to force overtime, and they will need similar heroics in the rematch, making this one of the more compelling matchups in sports news.
Projected Final Score
Nebraska 69-67 Iowa
Nebraska is coming off a better regular season; they have been more dominant during March Madness, and it is impossible to overlook their stout defense. Iowa’s clutch performances have gotten them this far, but when they find themselves trailing in the final minutes, Nebraska will get the stops they need to knock off their rivals.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
Why Iowa Can Win
Iowa’s offense is stellar, but this game will come down to how they can defend on the other end of the court.
Nebraska is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, which means if Iowa doesn’t match their intensity, they will get outworked. Iowa already beat Florida, one of the best teams in the tournament and a pre-tournament favorite on the March Madness odds and lines, which means this could be a letdown game.
Following up on an upset of that magnitude is never easy, and Iowa must defend with maximum intensity if it hopes to pull off another smaller upset.
On offense, Bennett Stirtz and Tavion Banks will run the show. Stirtz is averaging 19.7 PPG this season, while Banks just dropped 20 points against the Gators in the second round. Both are active on defense, which will keep the intensity high, and unlocking the Nebraska defense is no easy task.
The Cornhuskers will undoubtedly collapse on Stirtz, which means Banks and the rest of the starting five will need to step up. Iowa often runs a deep rotation, with eight players playing all 35 games this year and another three posting 10+ appearances. A depth advantage for Iowa will help offset the pesky Nebraska defense and could tilt the court in their favor in the second half if Nebraska starts to fatigue, which is central to this basketball prediction.
Why Nebraska Can Win
Nebraska has a variety of scorers who can punish Iowa, and they defend as a unit at maximum intensity. A stacked roster of elite defenders is a recipe for success for a team with the scoring depth Nebraska has. Pryce Sandfort, Rienk Mast, and Braden Frager are all averaging double digits this year while making an impact on the glass at the same time.
The only flaw with this team is the lack of three-point shooting from Nebraska. The Cornhuskers only have leading scorer Sandfort averaging at least 40% from behind the arc, which is concerning if they fall behind early. Iowa will undoubtedly be draped on Sandfort for most of this matchup, as they will force Mast, Frager, or someone else to beat them offensively. Nebraska moves the ball well and rarely turns it over, and they have already shown that their ‘next man up’ mentality will allow them to succeed regardless of the defensive coverage.
Current Iowa vs Nebraska Game Outlook
Nebraska comes into this one as a slight favorite on the NCAA odds, but this one could go either way. The elite Nebraska defense facing off against a strong Iowa offense will be a sight to see, but the real battle will be on the other end of the court. Iowa can score, and Nebraska can defend; that is nothing new, but whichever can up their game elsewhere will advance to the Elite Eight.
How to Make Your Iowa vs Nebraska Picks
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Iowa Recent Trends
Iowa enters the Sweet Sixteen after knocking off top-seeded Florida in the second round and will be full of confidence. While beating No. 1 Florida and No. 8 Clemson has Iowa feeling good again, they didn’t finish the regular season off on the right foot. They started the year 7-0 and improved to 18-5, but lost seven of their last ten to finish 21-12. A loss to Michigan can be forgiven, but their season finale against Ohio State and their previous defeat against Nebraska cannot. However, that feels like a distant memory after they upset Florida as 10.5-point underdogs, improving their against-the-spread record to 20-15 on the season.
Iowa Recent Stats
Iowa’s consistent offense, led by Bennett Stirtz, has gotten them to this stage of the tournament. Stirtz leads the team in points and assists and is the focal point of their 28th-ranked offense. They play at the 365th-fastest pace, often taking the shot clock down to the final few seconds before generating a high-percentage look. Their patience has allowed them to post the 23rd-best field goal percentage in the nation. On defense, Iowa can get exposed, as they are only 122nd in the nation. Their offense overcame their defensive issues against Florida, but Iowa knows it cannot afford to allow 72 points again and expect to book a spot in the Elite Eight.
Iowa Leaders
- Points: Bennett Stirtz (19.7)
- Rebounds: Tavion Banks (4.7)
- Assists: Bennett Stirtz (4.5)
- Steals: Bennett Stirtz (1.5)
Iowa Player Performance Projections
Iowa was led by Tavion Banks and his 20 points against Florida, making this a prime spot to ‘buy low’ on Stirtz. The Florida upset was seen around the nation, and Banks will be on the forefront of the public’s mind heading into this one. Make no mistake, Stirtz is still the driving force behind their success. Nebraska does a good job at shutting down the deep ball, which is where Banks finds his success. Stirtz will not hesitate to drive into the paint and take tough layups, and he will convert them more often than not. Taking star players often comes with a downside, but after a quiet night from Stirtz in the second round, this is the perfect time to follow Iowa’s best player in the biggest game of his life.
Nebraska Recent Trends
Nebraska started off the regular season 20-0 but finished the year 6-6 in their final 12 games. They were not deterred by the fact that they lost their perfect record and bounced back nicely during the first two rounds of March Madness.
They were expected to take down Troy, and did so in straightforward fashion, but then pulled off the upset against Vanderbilt in the second round. They went 19-15 against the spread this year, but the real trend is on their totals.
Nebraska’s solid defense has allowed them to go 11-23 on the closing total, including three straight unders in the playoffs. If Nebraska wants to book a spot in the Elite Eight, it will be thanks to another strong defensive showing.
Nebraska Recent Stats
Nebraska is here thanks to its defense, which is led by Sam Hoiberg. Hoiberg may not get on the scoresheet often, but he leads the team in both steals and assists. His hounding defensive work rate has propelled Nebraska to the 17th-best defensive rating in the nation, and they treasure every possession.
They generate plenty of steals while rarely turning the ball over themselves, and do a good job at cleaning up the glass. Their 46.6% field goal percentage is far from elite, as is their 35.5% success rate from deep, but they make up for it with extra possessions in other ways.
Strong defense can offset a mediocre offense, and Nebraska’s has only allowed more than 80 points once this season.
Nebraska Leaders
- Points: Pryce Sandfort (17.9)
- Rebounds: Rienk Mast (5.8)
- Assists: Sam Hoiberg (4.4)
- Steals: Sam Hoiberg (2.0)
Nebraska Player Performance Projections
Nebraska has a trio of players who average 10+ PPG, but their scoring drops off dramatically once you go into their bench.
Pryce Sandfort will take most of the big shots for Nebraska, as he has been lethal behind the arc with a 41% clip from deep. His ability to feed off Hoiberg’s ball security has been excellent, and he doesn’t need the ball in his hands often to be effective.
Many of Nebraska’s offensive plays attempt to set Sandfort up, but Iowa will know what’s coming after these two met last month. That will result in Nebraska mixing things up and Hoiberg taking on more of a scoring role against Iowa. He only averages 9.4 PPG this season, but a lackluster Iowa defense, combined with an increased focus on shutting down Sandfort, will allow Hoiberg to score double digits in this matchup.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Game
The deciding factor in this matchup is whether or not Iowa can defend against Nebraska. Iowa has the better offense, but Nebraska’s elite defense will mean they will have to settle for some empty possessions on offense. Nebraska has a variety of scorers who can make Iowa pay, and Iowa will not be able to outscore their defensive issues against a team like Nebraska.
If Nebraska can effectively score the basketball, which is looking increasingly likely, Iowa will need another offensive masterclass to advance. They already showed the nation that they can pull it off, as we saw against Florida, but expecting lightning to strike twice is too much to ask.
Final Prediction Summary
Nebraska has been the better team since it beat Iowa a few weeks ago and will look to prove it again. There aren’t many rematches like this one in March Madness, and it is hard to envision a different result this time around.
Nebraska has shown they can tear through a vulnerable Iowa defense, and it is no secret that they can defend on the other end of the court. It’ll be another close game between these two, but Nebraska will be the one advancing to the Elite Eight on Thursday night.
Final Score: Nebraska 69-67 Iowa
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