Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will begin their latest effort to overcome the challenges of the competitive AFC on Sunday in Western New York when they host the Denver Broncos.
The Bills, 13-4, cruised to yet another AFC East title and will count on home-field advantage until a potential road trip in two weeks’ time. After an 8-0 season at home this year, that’s welcome news to the potential MVP in Allen.
After an upstart 10-7 season led by rookie passer Bo Nix, the Broncos are back in the playoffs for the first time in nine years. They must, however, face a brutal task on the road right away. After going just 4-5 away from Mile High in 2024, it’s going to take a Sean Payton masterclass if they’re to upset the favored Bills.
Ahead of a classic AFC matchup on Super Wild Card weekend, check out our Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills predictions, including our NFL expert picks, with kickoff set for January 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Overview
Teams: Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills is the Buffalo Bills. The winner probabilities are 80.95% (Buffalo Bills) and 25.00% (Denver Broncos).
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NFL matchup is Buffalo Bills 35-20 Denver Broncos.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
If styles make fights, then we are in for one incredible fight on Sunday in Western New York. In the Denver Broncos, you have the league’s best defense. It is a unit littered with talent and legitimate difference makers, and it pushed the Broncos into the playoffs in what ended up being a competitive race for the seventh and final AFC playoff spot.
On the other side, you have a Buffalo Bills team led by the potential MVP Josh Allen. After yet another marvelous campaign, the rocket-armed passer is in line to finally break through in that personal accolade—but it’s team success he is still chasing. Led by Allen’s brilliance, Buffalo’s offense spent the season dominating opponents in a similar fashion to the Broncos’ defense.
Why the Broncos Can Cover
As has been the case throughout the 2024 season, it all starts with defense for the Denver Broncos. Such an elite defense can keep them in practically any game, regardless of the strength of the opponent’s offense. In 12 different games this season, the Broncos limited opponents to fewer than 24 points—with an offense that averaged 25.0 points per game, the route to success is clear.
As the league has skewed further and further to being dominated by offenses, the effectiveness of run-of-the-mill good defenses has waned. This Denver defense, however, is not just good. It’s a legitimately great unit, and it is illustrated in underlying metrics.
The Broncos finished first in defensive Expected Points Added, at +57.45, and nearly 10.0 points higher than the second place team. On a per-drive basis, they were outstanding in their consistency. At 27.9 yards allowed per drive, Denver had the fourth-best mark in the league. However, its dominance showed through in how it tightened in the red zone. No team allowed fewer points on a per-drive basis than the Broncos, who shipped 1.61 points per opposition possession this year.
That level of defense can keep the Broncos in any game. Of their seven losses this year, only one—a 41-10 loss at the hands of the dominant Baltimore Ravens—came by more than the nine points they’re getting in the spread here.
Why the Bills Can Cover
Just as the Buffalo Bills enjoyed from wire-to-wire in the 2024 regular season, Josh Allen is capable of taking over games and simply helping his team to run away.
Allen and the Bills’ offense turned blowouts and onslaughts into the routine this year, and it’s a big part of what should finally be a successful MVP candidacy. Buffalo won 13 games this year, and eight of those wins came by the nine points (or more) it is giving to the Broncos here. That figure would’ve been even greater if it weren’t for Buffalo’s leaky defense, as it won games by fewer than nine points despite posting 48, 42, and 34 points on different occasions.
All told, Allen and the Bills have put together the portfolio of an elite offense. Over the regular season, Buffalo finished 3rd in offensive Expected Points Added at +221.37.
Its per-drive stats illustrate the explosive potential of the offense, too. While the Bills were just eighth in yards per drive, at 35.4, they were second in points per drive at 2.92. That shows the regularity with which Allen found receivers deep downfield in the vertical passing game, or running back James Cook found a massive seam to create explosive plays on the ground.
With a home-field advantage that helped them to an undefeated mark in Buffalo this year, it wouldn’t be the first time Allen and the Bills simply ran away from an opponent on the back of a high-flying offense.
Despite the criticism this year, the absence of a true number one wide receiver doesn’t pose a significant disadvantage in this particular matchup. With the Broncos able to deploy Defensive Player of the Year candidate Patrick Surtain Jr. on any receiver and more or less suffocate the production, the Bills’ lack of talent at receiver mitigates Surtain Jr.’s impact.
The Bills can count on the best player in the NFL at the most important position, and that gives them a chance to cover in any spot.
Current Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Denver Broncos | +300 | +9 (-110) | O47.0 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -425 | -9 (-110) | U47.0 (-110) |
How to Make Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Picks
Ready to make picks on the Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills matchup on Sunday, January 12? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NFL game on the slate this weekend and so much more!
