Two of the league’s most exciting quarterbacks, who have led teams that have delivered high-level drama throughout the 2024 season, will meet on Sunday Night Football in the penultimate game of Super Wild Card Weekend.
The Commanders, at 12-5, were one of the season’s surprises. Jayden Daniels, the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year, revitalized a franchise that had spent too many years adrift.
The Commanders’ reward for such a bright campaign is a tough matchup against the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At 10-7, the Bucs clawed all the way back into their division race, taking advantage of the Atlanta Falcons’ quarterback troubles to take the banner at the end.
With an exciting NFC matchup between two thrilling passers ahead on Sunday night, check out our Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions, including our NFL expert picks, with kickoff set for January 12 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Matchup Overview
Teams: Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Win Probabilities
The prediction tip for the winner in the game between the Washington Commanders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The winner probabilities are 63.64% (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and 2.55% (Washington Commanders).
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NFL matchup is Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-21 Washington Commanders.
Expert Prediction: Who Wins?
When Super Wild Card Weekend delivers intriguing matchups, it really delivers. That is the case in Tampa Bay on Sunday night, as the matchup between the Buccaneers and Washington Commanders may be the closest game this weekend.
Though the Commanders finished the regular season with two more wins than the NFC South-winning Bucs, they are so closely matched—both in terms of underlying metrics and how they got here.
Both teams have box-office quarterbacks who, when at the helm of your offense, give you a chance in every game and in any situation. Both teams faced severely limited skill position corps, buoyed by the presence of bona fide number one wide receivers, in Washington’s Terry McLaurin and Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans. And both needed the magic of their quarterbacks and leading wideouts, thanks to porous defensive performances.
So, how will Sunday Night Football in Wild Card weekend play out?
Why the Commanders Will Cover
Given the Bucs’ home-field advantage, despite being three-point underdogs, the Commanders clearly have a chance on Sunday in Tampa Bay. Yet, their path to victory appears much more narrow and singular than that of Tampa Bay.
Everything Washington does well—mainly moving the football and scoring points in a way that matches opponents drive-for-drive—Tampa does slightly better. Or, in the case of the Commanders’ poor defense, the Bucs are slightly more competent.
Ultimately, for the Commanders to win, they’re going to need rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels to take over and dominate proceedings, as he has routinely in 2024. The soon-to-be Offensive Rookie of the Year was, incredibly, the complete lifeblood of Washington this season.
In the Commanders’ wins—including Weeks 7 and 18, where he played just a few series—Daniels completed nearly 72% of his passes, averaged 0.5 turnovers to nearly 2.0 total touchdowns per game, and was able to push the ball vertically to the tune of 7.72 yards an attempt.
In losses, he much more closely resembled a too-much, too-soon rookie passer. Those five games saw Daniels complete just 64% of his passes, averaged more than a turnover per game when accounting for fumbles, and a total of eight touchdowns through the air and on the ground.
The dependency Washington had on Daniels this year was reflected in its record, which looked like the kind of streaky play you’d typically expect out of a rookie passer. Within its 17-game regular season, Washington had a four-game win streak, a three-game losing streak, and then a five-game winning streak.
In a matchup where the Commanders are basically second-best across the board, their route to covering is the same route they took to 12 wins this year: Daniels’ magic.
Why the Buccaneers Will Cover
Everything the Washington Commanders can do, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can do better. To cover, and move onto the Divisional Round, the Bucs must show up on Sunday and play a clean game. Should they perform poorly or fall short of playoff expectations, Daniels and the Commanders would gain an advantage.
However, while Washington’s dependence on Daniels looms large in the rookie’s first playoff game, Tampa Bay can find tremendous comfort in the notion Baker Mayfield has already been to the postseason—and has shown up in a major way.
Mayfield’s four-game playoff résumé reads incredibly impressively, especially when you consider three of the four games have come on the road. Those trips were in brutal environments, too, with Mayfield having gone to Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Detroit in his brief playoff career.
Those four games have seen Mayfield complete 62% of his passes, with a per-game clip of 288.25 yards. He has played clean football in the high-stakes setting, with only three picks to 10 touchdowns. That type of clean, mistake-free football will be crucial for the Bucs to win because Washington’s defense is capable of bottoming out.
Seven times this year, the Commanders allowed 24+ points to opponents, including a season-high 37 to these same Bucs in Week 1. It’s a defense that finished in or near the bottom 10 in almost every metric, including expected points added, yards allowed per drive, and points per drive.
The Bucs are a better team with greater experience and, crucially, home-field advantage on Sunday night. Simply avoiding mistake-laden football and continuing to play at the level they played at for most of the regular season provides a clear path to victory.
Current Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Washington Commanders | +135 | +3 (-105) | O50.0 (-110) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -175 | -3 (-125) | U50.0 (-110) |
How to Make Commanders vs. Buccaneers Picks
Ready to make picks on the Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup on Sunday, January 12? Make sure to head over to Sportzino, where you can find every NFL game on the slate this weekend and so much more!
