There is a divisional clash in the nation’s capital this weekend as the NFC East’s top two teams collide. The Philadelphia Eagles, 12-2, are fresh off a big-time win against their cross-state rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. With a win on Sunday, the Eagles could win yet another NFC East title.
Standing in their way are the upstart Washington Commanders and Offensive Rookie of the Year contender Jayden Daniels. At 9-5, the Commanders are in good shape for a Wild Card berth in the NFC playoff picture. After a tight, last-second win over the New Orleans Saints last Sunday, the Commanders will ride a two-game winning streak into this divisional fight.
With a division title on the line this week in Landover, Maryland, check out our Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders predictions, including our NFL picks against the spread, with kickoff set for December 22 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Overview
Teams: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
Date: Sunday, December 22, 2024
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Northwest Stadium
Current Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -190 | -3.5 (-110) | O46.0 (-110) |
| Washington Commanders | +145 | +3.5 (-110) | U46.0 (-110) |
Why the Philadelphia Eagles Can Cover
Right off the top, we can be clear about one thing in a general sense: the Philadelphia Eagles can cover because they’re one of the best, most complete teams in the NFL. At 12-2, the Eagles have looked down nearly every challenge presented thus far, and with just one more win to clinch their latest NFC East title, they look like a true Super Bowl contender.
Despite a passing game that has come and gone periodically in 2024, much to the chagrin of AJ Brown, the Eagles have maintained a top 10 standing in nearly every metric. Even removing defensive impact from metrics, it’s a team that can be buoyed by its offense. Philadelphia is seventh in total offensive Expected Points Added (EPA), ninth in yards per drive (35.1), and eighth in points per drive (2.47). Despite failing to get its passing game into gear, it has done that, as it sits just 16th in total passing EPA.
Even with some bad vibes surrounding the passing attack and the frustration felt by Brown and potentially DeVonta Smith, there should be total confidence that it will click in January. The Eagles and their passing game’s lead trio of Jalen Hurts, Brown, and Smith are too good and too experienced to remain plateaued where they currently are.
Yet, the Eagles’ passing game may not need to progress, as their rushing attack has been completely transcendent. Philadelphia is atop the league in rushing offense EPA, at 77.33, nearly 10.0 full points ahead of the second-place team.
Even for the league’s best running game, the Eagles have a rare level of domination. Between the offensive line, the outrageously good play of Saquon Barkley, and the threat of Hurts, the Eagles’ rushing attack can well and truly take games over.
Ultimately, that ability to take over games is how the Eagles can cover in even a tight, competitive divisional game against the Washington Commanders. While Philadelphia will be led by its elite rush attack into this game, the Commanders don’t have the profile of a defense capable of slowing it down.
During the season, the Commanders allowed opposing runners to average 4.8 yards per carry, the third-worst mark in the league. Worse yet, their -10.31 EPA as a rushing defense ranks them 19th in the league, and as the negative mark illustrates, it has been genuinely damaging in 2024.
That was the case in Week 11 when these divisional foes first squared off this season. In that Eagles win, Washington’s run defense was completely dominated in a game that saw it allow 228 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. In a one-possession loss, the Commanders ended up with -15.84 EPA as a run defense.
Like most good teams, the Eagles can avoid overcomplicating things here and depend on a running game that’s gotten them this far.
Why the Washington Commanders Can Cover
The Washington Commanders can cover here by doing what they did in Week 11 in Philadelphia and attempt to flex a little muscle with their superior passing game. Though faith in Hurts and the Eagles’ passing game is deserved, we’re yet to see it this year with consistency — especially in comparison to Jayden Daniels and Washington’s aerial attack.
Pretty much by any metric, the Commanders’ passing game has been superior to the Eagles’ this year, and it has buoyed the Commanders to fourth in total offensive EPA — above Sunday’s opponent.
Thanks to Terry McLaurin’s best season, one that has long been coming as he suffered through bad quarterback play previously, and Daniels’ explosiveness, Washington’s passing game has risen to tremendously impressive levels.
The Commanders have more than doubled the Eagles’ passing offense EPA this year, with a +122.47 mark — seventh in the league through 14 games — compared to just 59.46, good for 16th league-wide, by the Eagles.
It’s that disparity between the performance of their respective passing games that will allow Washington to hang around and cover, if not win outright. In Week 11, despite a 20-point explosion by the Eagles’ offense in the fourth quarter, that disparity played out. While the Commanders notched a +5.21 EPA with their passing game, the Eagles totaled a measly +1.16 EPA through the air despite a clean game from Jalen Hurts.
In its first year under Dan Quinn, Washington’s defense has slipped to be hovering around the bottom 10 in most metrics. It lacks the athleticism to handle the dynamism of the Eagles’ running game, and so Washington simply cannot enter this contest expecting to contain Barkley and the Eagles.
As has been the case throughout a bright 2024 for the Commanders, competitiveness — and covering the spread — here will come down to the brilliance of rookie passer Jayden Daniels and the offense.
How to Make Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Picks
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