Lions vs Vikings Predictions

It’s an NFC North clash on the docket this week at U.S. Bank Stadium as the 4-1 Detroit Lions make the short trip to the Land of 10,000 Lakes to take on the undefeated Minnesota Vikings. 

Detroit set out into the 2024 season as the division favorite in most NFL picks, but Minnesota and the incredible resurgence of one-time bust Sam Darnold have stormed to the top of the division early. 

With a game-of-the-week candidate to look forward to this week in Minneapolis, check out our Lions vs. Vikings predictions, including our NFL picks against the spread, with kickoff set for October 20 at 1 p.m. ET. 

Matchup Lions vs Vikings  Overview

Teams: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

Date: Sunday, October 20, 2024

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium

Current Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds

With such a tightly contested matchup between two well-familiar divisional foes ahead, it’s no surprise to see a razor-thin spread on the board. Early Week 7 NFL odds have the Vikings as a 1.5-point favorite — a margin that is as much reflective of their home-field advantage as it is any perceived edge on the field. 

Minnesota, 5-0 in action this year, has also made beating the books routine as it’s 5-0 against the spread. The Lions, meanwhile, have been similarly strong with a 4-1 against the spread mark — with their home upset at the hands of the Bucs acting as the lone blemish on both their straight-up and against the spread record. 

An early Over/Under sits at 48, and understandably so. Both Darnold’s Vikings and Jared Goff’s Lions are capable of scoring at will with anyone, and this clash is headed for a dome. It would not, however, be surprising to see the Lions vs. Vikings total moved down ahead of Week 7, as both squads have been routine Unders so far in 2024. 

Detroit has seen just two Overs this season and Minnesota just one, partly due to high point totals. However, with two high-performing quarterbacks, talented skill position players, and excellent play-callers, a high-scoring game is expected. It would be wise to wait until closer to Sunday to assess any changes in the total.

Unsurprisingly, with Minnesota a modest 1.5-point favorite, the moneyline isn’t offering tremendous value. Most books have the Vikings as around a -120 favorite, with Detroit coming back at -105. 

Why the Detroit Lions Can Cover

Fresh off one of its more impressive, dominant wins in recent memory — which is quite a statement when considering how strong it has been since the second half of the 2022 season — Detroit will enter this matchup brimming with confidence. The Lions shellacked the Cowboys in Dallas, 47-9, while taking the emotional gut punch of Aidan Hutchinson’s season-ending injury. 

The Lions are a tremendously well-coached team in all three phases. However, their lifeblood is the offense. Play-caller Ben Johnson has Goff operating at an efficient, high level, meshing layups for the offense with big-play ability aided by constant misdirection and disguise.

Through five weeks (i.e., not including Week 6 results), Detroit is seventh in offensive DVOA (an efficiency metric adjusted for opponent) but has proven to be elite in its efficiency. On a per-drive basis, the Lions are fourth in yards, netting out at 37.1, and just a notch below the Commanders in points per drive, averaging 2.73—good for second in the league. 

If the Lions are to cover against the Vikings — and hang around with a chance to win outright — it will be on the back of their elite offense. With solidity in all three phases — offense, defense, and special teams — and great coaching, Detroit can hang in any matchup. Where the Lions find their edge, however, is their ability to straight-up out-gun opponents. 

It’s proven to be a great recipe for success in Detroit. However, against the Vikings, it’ll face its toughest test yet.  

Why the Minnesota Vikings Can Cover

The Minnesota Vikings can cover because, in a league dominated by passers, high-flying offenses, and scoring at will, one of the season’s biggest stories has been Brian Flores’ Vikings defense. 

The former much-maligned Dolphins head man has reminded the NFL world of his defensive prowess to start 2024, repeatedly suffocating opposing offenses. Flores and the Vikings’ defense have been so utterly dominant this season that not only do they rank No. 1 in DVOA as a unit, but Minnesota also owns the No. 1 spot in total DVOA—despite a 19th-ranked offense. 

The Vikings have simply blanked teams on defense, conceding a measly 1.25 points per drive and allowing points on a league-low 21.7% of their drives. Their schedule’s already dotted with wildly impressive performances, too. 

In Week 2, they kept the 49ers in check to the tune of 17 points before an absolute masterclass in Week 3. That Sunday, against CJ Stroud and the deep Texans offense, Flores and Minnesota allowed a single touchdown and held Houston’s offense below 300 yards of total offense in a crushing 34-7 win.

Simply put, Minnesota’s defense is so dominant it will be in any game, and its offense simply needs to be average. So far, that’s held true. 

While the Vikings’ offense is slightly below average in most efficiency metrics, their ability to finish drives has them above league average in points per drive (2.08). An even bigger aid, however, is Darnold’s receivers. Flanked by Jordan Addison and the league’s best in Justin Jefferson, explosive plays are never out of reach and can flip a game when the defense is playing as well as it is.  

With a truly elite defense and a good enough offense, the Vikings are well-positioned to hang around in any game and cover the slight spread here in a home win. 

How to Make Lions vs. Vikings Picks

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