The past and present of the AFC East will come together on Sunday in upstate New York when the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills, 11-3, look set for another postseason of Super Bowl contention and have already clinched the AFC East title. Led by the MVP favorite, Josh Allen, it’s all in front of the Bills as they push for a return to the Big Game for the first time since the 1990s.
On the other side is the 3-11 Patriots. So often the division’s kingmakers during the heyday of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, New England is amid another tough season but with a reason for hope, as Drake Maye continues to flash his sky-high potential.
With a divisional clash between first and last this week at Highmark Stadium, check out our New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills predictions, including our NFL picks against the spread, with kickoff set for December 22 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Matchup New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Overview
Teams: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Date: Sunday, December 22, 2024
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Current New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| New England Patriots | +525 | +13 (-110) | O46.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -900 | -13 (-110) | U46.5 (-110) |
Why the New England Patriots Can Cover
In a broad sense, with such a sizable spread on the board in Buffalo for Week 16, the New England Patriots can cover because that is a hefty number of points to get. Even in an entirely uncompetitive game, a garbage time score or two in the fourth quarter could see them pull to within 13 points.
Zooming in, however, there’s a much more specific path to the Patriots being able to cover here against the Buffalo Bills. That path involves a Bills defense that, yet again under defensive head coach Sean McDermott, is performing below the standard of an elite team. Even over the last two weeks, during which the Bills have really begun to stand out as a Super Bowl contender, they’ve given up 42 and 44 points to the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams, respectively.
That’s been the continuation of a year-long theme for Buffalo’s defense. Granted, it has gotten a handful of stout performances, but those have been littered between seriously concerning games. The Bills have allowed 28 to the Arizona Cardinals, 35 to the Baltimore Ravens, 23 to a broken Houston Texans offense, and 27 to a Miami Dolphins offense coming out of a long slumber.
Ultimately, this is a Bills defense that has shown it can be pushed around. It cannot get off the field and force punts, and Buffalo’s 34.1 yards allowed per drive is the fourth-worst in the league. Though it tightens up a bit in the red zone, it is still in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per drive at 2.1.
Overall, this defense ranks 16th in Expected Points Added (EPA), and aside from edge rusher Gregory Rousseau, there are no players who can change the game significantly.
However, whether the Patriots can take advantage of Buffalo’s glaring weakness is another story. Despite the relatively quick turn to rookie quarterback Drake Maye this season in favor of veteran Jacoby Brissett, the Pats’ offense hasn’t mustered much. With essentially zero playmakers beyond Pop Douglas — who is a master underneath but doesn’t exactly bring dynamism — and Rhamondre Stevenson, who’s having his worst year as a pro, New England’s offense has mustered so little.
Ahead of Week 16, the Patriots have the sixth-lowest EPA as an offense, produce the fourth-fewest points per drive, and are 23rd in yards per drive at 27.7. Yet, between the Bills’ defensive weaknesses and their penchant for letting lesser offenses into games, there’s a clear path to covering for New England.
Why the Buffalo Bills Can Cover
Much like how, in a broad sense, the Patriots can cover due to the size of the line, the Buffalo Bills can cover because they have the ability to completely dominate.
This team has the second-highest scoring margin in the NFL through 15 weeks, at +9.6. They’ve beaten teams by 13 (the spread here) or more in five of their 11 wins. With the exception of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans, those wins came against teams superior to the Patriots.
In a more micro sense, the Bills can cover this lofty spread by hanging another 40+ points on a lesser team. This is a fantastic spot to do just that after Buffalo has put up 40 in consecutive weeks (and three times this year).
Nobody on the planet is playing better football than the likely MVP, Josh Allen. Allen has grabbed hold of the MVP conversation with both hands as he has dragged a relatively talent-poor Bills offense toward the top of the league.
Ahead of Week 16, Buffalo sits second in offensive EPA and is ultimately only trailing the Baltimore Ravens in that metric due to the Ravens’ dominant, game-controlling ground game. Buffalo’s game-breaking ability as an offense and the absurd explosiveness Allen brings to an attack, is best illustrated by its league-leading points per drive.
With an average of 3.03 points per drive, the Bills not only lead the league but find themselves in truly historic company. They are so consistent in putting up points that they can quickly run away from lesser teams.
Against a Patriots defense that has sunk further and further without Bill Belichick’s tutelage, Buffalo could again run away from a team. New England has the fourth-lowest EPA as a defense and sits in the bottom 10 in both yards and points allowed per drive. Worse still, its most impactful defender, Christian Barmore, is now done for the season.
The Patriots’ offense and Maye, can certainly score against this Buffalo defense. If their defense, however, is unable to get even a handful of stops, it won’t matter. The Bills could run away from their old divisional big brother in rapid fashion.
How to Make New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Picks
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