The 2023 season is in the rearview mirror, and there were several NFL trends available for the public to predict over the last season. NFL football trends can be a very effective tool to help the public make sports predictions for future games, as utilizing the previous odds to evaluate current odds can be very profitable. As we head into the 2024 season, keeping an eye on these patterns will be critical to make accurate predictions for the new season.
What Are NFL Prediction Trends?
NFL prediction trends are how various teams, players, or conferences have fared in recent games. It can be as simple as seeing the Kansas City Chiefs win 5 games in a row, leading the public to believe they are more likely to win the next game. It can also get more intricate, such as if a defense is coming up against a run heavy offense compared to a pass heavy offense, and how they have fared in each situation. The odds must always be considered, but overall, using these patterns to make more accurate predictions is an effective strategy for the public to use when looking to predict upcoming games.
NFL Conference Trends
The conference round has featured numerous NFL trends over the last several seasons, and can be one of the most effective tools to use in making NFL predictions. Conference trends are patterns that have become clearer in the conference round of the playoffs. The AFC and NFC teams square off fighting for a spot in the Super Bowl, and the odds can often exclude this valuable insight.
One clear trend that has emerged is that the spread has been covered by the outright winner in 37 of the last 44 conference round games. The San Francisco 49ers broke that streak last season winning, but failing to cover against the Detroit Lions.t However, it is a pattern that should persist in upcoming games.
NFL Division Trends
The divisions are packed full with trends, as these familiar foes square off twice a year against one another. These games will always get the attention of the public, and are some of the best opportunities to follow NFL division trends. An NFL division trend is a pattern that emerged in a certain division. For example, in the NFC East, 8 of the 12 divisional games last year went over the total, which is something the public would have been able to predict if they had been following division trends. This was apparent in 2022, as the NFC East was the only division to finish over the total more often than under. Strategies like these can be a great way to make predictions, as they can help the public better understand what is likely to happen in an upcoming game.
NFL Team Trends
The most popular types of trends are NFL team trends. An NFL team trend is a pattern that has emerged for a specific team. These can be used to better predict future games involving specific teams, and these trends may not be included in the odds. For instance, the Detroit Lions went over the total in 13 of their 20 games last season. This was easy to predict, as last season, the Lions also went over the total more often than not in 10 of their 17 games. The odds can sometimes already take these trends into account, but when something as obvious as this streak of overs for the Lions is not being considered, it can make predicting scores a much easier task. There is nothing more significant than NFL team trends, which must be taken into consideration when used to make winning predictions.
NFL Player Trends
NFL player trends are the second most popular NFL trend, as player props have been one of the most popular ways for the public to predict games. NFL player trends surround one specific player. This could be due to how many games in a row they’ve made at least 2 catches, or how recently they last got a touchdown. These trends are critical for making NFL player predictions, as they can truly help the public understand how effective a player is, and how frequently they may be playing in an upcoming game. It can be easy to make a prediction that Christian McCaffrey will score a touchdown after following his current trend occurring in 16 of his 19 games in the 2023 season. Alternatively, someone like Tyler Boyd, who went 10 straight games without a touchdown to close out the 2023 season would not be a good prediction to make. By following these player trends, you can increase the NFL odds of making a successful prediction.
Top 10 NFL Trends in 2024
The NFL was filled with trends last season, and will continue to affect the odds for the upcoming season. Some trends have emerged as extremely reliable and should be used to make better NFL predictions for the upcoming season.
- NFL Favorites: The favorites went an incredible 190-95 on the moneyline last season, and a solid 139-132-14 ATS. The public is usually more willing to predict a win and cover for the favorites, as it was a very successful year for the favorites.
- NFL Unders: It was a year for the defenses, as the under went 150-130-5 last year in the NFL. This trend emphasizes that the odds are often set so that the public predicts the over, but the total falls short. By using this advantage to make future predictions, it was very clear that the under was the best thing to predict last season.
- Home Field Advantage: The trend of home teams still holding an advantage was clear in the NFL, as the hosts went 161-124 last season. The odds often make the home team the favorite if the teams are of a similar skill level. The comfort of a home dressing room and the atmosphere can tilt the scales in the host’s favor.
- Low scoring Home Underdogs: One of the most apparent NFL trends from last season was the low scoring games on display when the home team was the underdog. This happened 109 times last season, and the over only won 44 times (40%). This trend is one that is likely to carry into next season, and the public will need to keep this in mind when making future predictions.
- Arizona Cardinals Home vs Away trends: The Arizona Cardinals were an outlier in the home underdog streak, as they were an underdog in all eight of their home games last season, and only won against the under once. The Cardinal offense at home (23.5 PPG) compared to them on the road (15.8 PPG) resulted in this stark difference.
- Kansas City Chiefs are never the Underdog: The oddsmakers made the Kansas City Chiefs the underdog in five separate games last season, and the public took full advantage with their predictions, as the Chiefs went a perfect 5-0 as the underdog. Patrick Mahomes takes it personally when he’s the underdog, and this is a pattern that will not be going anywhere anytime soon.
- Early leads make a difference: Since 2000, the team that scores first has won a staggering 64.5% of games. While there is still a lot of the game to be played after the opening score, it is clear the early advantage leads to a much higher win rate. This trend is very useful when making live predictions.
- Joe Burrow is reliable: Joe Burrow is a remarkable 31-20 ATS in his career, and as long as the spread is reasonable, the Bengals QB is a solid player to predict to cover the spread.
- Bryce Young is not reliable: Bryce Young has only completed his rookie season, but he is on track to be one of the worst quarterbacks ATS in his career. His 5-11-1 record was the worst in the league, and the public must be extra careful when predicting a Young cover.
- Super Bowl winners usually cover: Teams that have won the Super Bowl almost always cover the spread, going 48-7-2 ATS since the league began. If you are looking to predict your favorite to win then lay the points. If you are looking to predict the underdog, then you should take the solid moneyline odds.
Where to Find Current NFL Trends?
There are several different sources the public can use to find the best NFL football trends. These sources can include articles, statistics, and patterns available directly off the standings. There will always be countless trends available to make NFL predictions, and by doing so, you can get ahead of the public.
How to Use NFL Trends in Your Prediction Strategy?
In order to use trends in your prediction strategy, you have to understand that these trends may be included in the odds already. Just because the Kansas City Chiefs have won 5 straight games, doesn’t mean the public should predict them to do so again at any odds. These trends can help you better understand the odds and lines, and are only one of the many tools needed to make successful predictions.
